The German government has reviewed downward growth prospects for 2013. The economy of the Federal Republic should grow next year at a rate no higher than that recorded this year. In fact, the data processed by the main research institutes speak of a GDP increase of just 1%. Again last May, the executive calculated a much more substantial +1,6% for the election year. As emerges from a report published earlier this week by the BDI (Bundesverband Deutscher Industrie) everything depends on the (still) good rhythm of the export, which, in the first half of 2012, represented one of the main components of German growth. On the other hand, so far the impulses coming from internal consumption and investments have been few. For Berliner DIW (German Institute for Economic Research), Germany will be affected, or rather will continue to be affected, in the coming months by the drop in demand from neighboring countries, especially those in the Euro area. In this regard, the Ifo business confidence index recorded its sixth consecutive decline in October.
Nonetheless, nobody wants to talk about the recession on the horizon. For now the occupation holds, while large sections of employees will receive larger paychecks in the coming months. Someone, to tell the truth, has already seen his salary adjusted upwards. From 1 November, for example, in the temporary work sector (Temporary Work), wages will increase in a range between 15 and 50%. On the other hand, for years there has been discussion of equating the situation of temporary workers to that of personnel employed by companies and public bodies, also from the point of view of salary. Now unions and employers have finally agreed. The increases will affect about one million people and will be important. These are increases that will fluctuate between 171 and 1380 euros more per month. But there are also other categories of workers who have taken advantage of the rise in wages, from trade to chemicals via the metalworking sector. As certified by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, 2012 saw the largest salary increase in the last four years. As if this were not enough, given the relative stability of the labor market, since 2013 the executive has promised a reduction in the contribution wedge, in particular the pension one. This will automatically turn into an upward adjustment of the pensions of twenty million German pensioners. The red-green opposition, alarmed by the nonchalance of the Christian-liberal executive, voted against this last measure. In fact, it should not be overlooked that next year the Federal Employment Agency will probably return to a deficit and therefore there is not much room for tax gratuities. According to some calculations byInstitut für Weltwirtschaft of Kiel, in 2012 the Agency paid about 13,7 billion in unemployment benefits. In 2013 the figure could rise to 14,2 billion. Several companies are already reducing production and some of them have reactivated the "short week" regime, especially those in the automotive sector, including MAN and Daimler.
In this qA picture made up of many chiaroscuro is the internal debate within the Government majority on the opportunity to anticipate the balanced budget already to 2014, rather than 2016. The liberals are pressing in this direction, but the Christian Democrats who, for the election year, intend to approve expansionary spending measures, are niche. In the meantime, tax revenues in 2012 will set a new record: a good 600 billion will end up in the Treasury's coffers. The savings package, launched in 2010-2011 by the government, however, is languishing in terms of results. Expenditures are just chasing revenues. In short, more than a political will, the achievement of a balanced budget in 2014 will depend on the economic situation in the coming months.
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