The European stock markets continue in negative territory after the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards the growth estimates for Europe and the United States, the quarterly report below the expectations of UBS and the tensions between the EU countries over the gas emergency plan for the winter. A mix of factors that makes the main stock lists nervous, with Milan being the worst in the Old Continent. But all eyes are on Wednesday's highlight, the Fed's rate announcement in an attempt to tame inflation.
Also Wall Street weak, after the profit warning of Walmart in the USA and awaiting the quarterly results of the big American companies A (-1,02%) And Microsoft (-1,38%), after the accusation (also against Apple and Amazon) of having used illegal gold extracted in the Amazon. Today, Tuesday 26 July, the two-day meeting of the FOMC, the monetary policy committee of the American central bank, opens in the USA. As expected, the Fed will once again adjust the cost of money upwards by 75 basis points, although forecasts have emerged of a possible adjustment of 100 points.
Among US indices, the Dow Jones files 0,57%; along the same lines, it yields to sales theS&P-500, which recedes to 3.940 points. Negative changes also for the Nasdaq (-1,48%) to 11.607,85 points.
Basically stable their, which continues the session at 1.715,3 dollars an ounce, down by 0,24%. Oil (Light Sweet Crude Oil) continues the session up and advances to 97,72 dollars per barrel.
Btp/Bund spread over 230 basis points
The yield on the 3-year US Treasury falls to 10%, as do the yields on government bonds in the Eurozone: while that of the 3,23-year BTP rises to XNUMX% with the spread Btp/Bund up to 237 basis points (+1,86%). The Treasury has placed 2,5 billion euro of short-term BTPs with rates rising to 1,71%
Piazza Affari the worst in Europe
Among the European lists, the black jersey wins Milano (-1,04%) to 21.159,98 points. Down too Frankfurt (-0,86%), Paris (-0,42%) And Madrid (-0,02%). Bucking Amsterdam e London slightly above parity (+0,1%). Cars, banks and telecommunications weigh in on the price lists. There was a sharp decline in airlines with Ryanair (-4,48%) and Lufthansa (-0,55%), the latter in view of the strike tomorrow with the cutting of numerous flights.
IMF cuts global growth estimates. Recession alert
The Monetary Fund cuts global growth estimates (revised from 3,6 to 3,2% this year and 2,9% in 2023), but war and inflation can cause even more serious damage (to +2,6% in 2022 and +2,0% in 2023, a level touched only five times since 1970). Italy holding up better than others, but in 2023 it will be the worst among the large EU economies: GDP is expected to grow by 3% in 2022 (0,7 percentage points more than the +2,3% forecast in April) while in 2023 the Fund cuts by one percentage point compared to previous forecasts, to +0,7%.
Even the growth estimates of Germany, France e Britain are revised downwards. The IMF has stressed that Berlin has a one in four chance of a recession. German growth has been revised to 1,2% in 2022 and +0,8% in 2023 (-0,9 and -1,9 percentage points respectively compared to previous estimates). French GDP is expected to grow by 2,3% this year and by 1% next (-0,6 and -0,4 percentage points), while the British by 3,2% in 2022 and by 0,5 % in 2023 (-0,5 and -0,7 percentage points).
“With rising prices taking their toll on living standards, reducing inflation must be the priority. Tightening monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying" action would only "exacerbate" them, says the IMF, predicting an inflation to 6,6% this year in advanced economies and 9,5% in emerging and developing economies. Price estimates have been revised up – by 0,9 and 0,8 percentage points respectively – and the Fund expects prices to stay elevated for longer than initially anticipated.
Il US GDP will slow down beyond forecasts both this year and next, crippled by the monetary tightening initiated by the Fed to counter inflation: the stars and stripes economy will grow by 2,3% in 2022, against the +2,9% expected in June, and 1% in 2023, against the +1,7% previously forecast. Inflation is instead estimated at 6,6% this year and then fall to 1,9% next year.
The dollar strengthens in view of the Fed, rising gas and oil
On the foreign exchange front, the euro is down (-0,88%) to 1,01307 dollars. Tomorrow's statements by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will condition the performance of the greenback in the coming weeks.
But fears for one also weighed on the exchange rate stop to Russian gas. Although the EU countries have approved the emergency plan to contain gas demand, European gas prices remain high: +9,6% to 193,6 euros per megawatt hour.
As far as our country is concerned, the Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, reassures us about storage, "the filling level of Italy's gas stocks has exceeded 70%, we are moving towards 71%, so I would say that we are Well".
Rising the price of crude: the Wti for delivery in September is traded at 98,12 dollars (+1,47%), while the same Brent future is worth 106,49 (+1,27%).
In Piazza Affari a negative session for the banks and the automotive sector
They suffer Pirelli e Iveco (-2,57%), stellantis (-0,79%) due to the shortage of chips.
It also shows a marked downside Diasorin (-3,05%). Among the credit institutions, which are primarily affected by the bad reception given by the market to Ubs' quarterly report, Banco Bpm (-3,10%) declined sharply Bper (-2,78%), Understanding (-1,85%) And Unicredit (-0,30%). Flexing A2a (-1,55%) And nexi (-2,05%). On shields Italgas (+2,93%), after the accounts for the first half year with growing profits. Well Snam (+ 0,87%).
Eni (-0,38%) does not benefit from the new discovery in the North Berkine basin in the Algerian desert made together with Sonatrach.
Bad too Moncler (-4,56%).
Slightly down too Tenaris (+0,43%). They show off Atlantia (+ 0,62%) and Terna (+ 1,94%).
Saipem (-0,40%) pays the publication of the second quarter accounts, scheduled for tomorrow.
