Russia is the only BRICS country that has been significantly affected by the European crisis. The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth estimates to 4% in 2011 and 3,8% in 2012. Within the academic debate, the majority of Russian economists see in the global slowdown the signal of the end of US domination and of their leadership in the world economic system. FIRSTonline interviewed Aleksandr Aivazov, an independent economist interested in BRICS and Russia's trade expansion in Central Asia and Korea.
FIRST online – Your latest book "The BRICS as a realization of the Beijing consensus" has just been published in Russia. What exactly do you mean by this last term?
Aivazov - I believe that the crisis that began in 2008 marked the end of the so-called Washington consensus: that is, of that political and economic world characterized by the unipolarity of the United States, who have imposed their liberal ideology on the rest of the world. The term “Beijing consensus” it indicates a multipolar world in which various economies coexist with different strategies and where there will no longer be a single dominating leader but different centers of influence. And where the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) will play a fundamental role. In short, no longer a single liberal economy but several sovereign countries and different economic systems, with a prevalence of Keynesian policies.
FIRST online Could you define the Chinese economy as Keynesian?
Aivazov - Sure. The principles are those of Keyenes but with a more Asian point of view.
FIRST online – So you see a precise end to this crisis and a precise development of what will happen next.
Aivazov – Yes, in one of my papers, published in 2008 with Professor Kobyakov, we elaborated a curve which evidently shows that the slight recovery that had been observed and which many thought marked the end of the crisis, was actually a temporary breath of fresh air . We proved that in 2012 the world would have entered a much longer recession, which would have destroyed the dollar-based financial system. According to our data, the economy is entering a recession that will last until 2016, when it will experience a slight expansion, then decrease again in 2018 and will begin to recover only in 2020 and from there there will be another boom and we will enter a new phase: the sixth technological era.
FIRST online – And will global geopolitics change in the meantime?
Aivazov - Exactly. As Braudel said: "The fall of one cycle of accumulation is the spring of another." And now, following Arrighetti's theory of cycles, the American period will end and the Asian cycle will begin. In In reality this change could have taken place much earlier, but the United States has done everything to avoid losing the scepter of power through the instrument of financial speculation. They choked off Japanese credit and plunged the country into stagnation. They did the same with Asian tigers. But out of nowhere, China appeared and that was not part of US plans. But as the Asian giant remains closed financially, the US has no way to use its speculative weapons against China.
FIRST online – So the BRICS would represent the centers of the new multipolar world?
Aivazov - Yes, 6 unions will be formed: the North American one, whose leader will be Mexico; South America, on the other hand, will rely on Brazil; the Euro-Asian zone to Russia; East Asia to China; India would be a union unto itself; in Africa, South Africa will lead the other countries towards development; finally, we must also consider the Islamic countries, whose fates are however still to be defined.
FIRST online – How will Russia lead the Eurasian union? On the one hand, you're not even part of the EU, on the other, do the countries of Central Asia seem more interested in linking up with China than maintaining relations with the old regime?
Aivazov – Europe will remain a separate entity of course, but Russia has plenty of room to grow: as Japan had already proposed in 1994, Siberia could be the new development territory, if Japan and South Korea were also included in the Eurasian union. It is true that the countries of Central Asia have recently been making agreements with China, but the giant cannot absorb everything. It will depend a lot on the policies Russia adopts in the future.
FIRST online – And do you believe that Putin is the right man to carry out this plan?
Aivazov – The biggest challenge for Putin now will be responding adequately to the crisis, but I can't see many experts in his team. I think Putin is still too tied to Europe and his policies are too Eurocentric. If we also tied up commercially with Japan and South Korea, we would add 250 million consumers to a market of about 500 million - it would be a perfect area to expand and form alliances.
