"Renzi is on the right track with the Jobs Act and with the constitutional reform if it passes, while the man of the future for France is Macron". The new wave of European leaders is promoted with flying colors by Philippe Aghion, economist at the London School of Economics. From the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio Aghion, supporter of the Schumpeterian paradigm of growth, for which this "necessarily passes through productivity", completely goes beyond the concept of right and left: "By now the confrontation is between reformers and conservatives, two categories that exist on both the political fronts: Europe needs structural reforms to complement the ECB's monetary policy. I said this to the Villa d'Este audience”.
A Frenchman from Paris, Aghion especially sticks to France: “Europe's problem is the lack of trust in relations between Paris and Berlin: we need a pact for growth for which Germany should concede something on austerity and France finally decide to make structural reforms. Also on migrants, Paris got it all wrong, while Merkel and Italy did a great job”. A few kilometers from where the university professor spoke is the city of Como, in whose railway station several hundred refugees have been left to their fate, for almost two months now and in inhumane conditions: they are prevented from crossing the border to travel to Switzerland and from there to Germany and Northern Europe. “I didn't know about this, I didn't go to Como: I can only say that Italy has been very good and that the situation in Ventimiglia is a shame. France should have done much more, but after all we are already in the electoral campaign and after the terrorist attacks nobody felt like it”.
That's why the right man is Emmanuel Macron, until a few days ago Minister of the Economy and now about to embark on a courageous race for the Elysée with his independent movement “En marche!”: “Macron won't become president in 2017, in the immediate future I see Alain Juppè better, who in my opinion could win the center-right primaries against Nicolas Sarkozy. And I hope so: the former president, on issues such as immigration but not only, is too close to the positions of the extreme right. We need inclusion." After all, even on reforms, the watchword is inclusion: “Reforms must be structural and above all inclusive, that is, they must take into account the losers – says Aghion -: I am thinking of people who lose their jobs, of precarious workers, or for example of taxi drivers damaged by Uber (UberPop, the ride sharing app, is still banned in France, ed). I am in favor of Uber but the competition must be fair: for this we need an intervention at the European level".
The model to follow is precisely the Italian one. “Renzi – explains the professor of the London School of Economics – is working in the right direction: the Jobs Act is fine, but even more important is the reform of the Constitution. I know you have a referendum soon, the risk is that it will become a plebiscite on Renzi, but the Yes must absolutely win. It is too important for Italy”. If the Italian GDP was stagnant in the second quarter, it is certainly no better for France which also recorded stagnation, after quarters of very weak growth: "We should at least start announcing reforms to you: if you don't announce them, it's even more difficult than you do them. This would be needed in the electoral campaign, but no one will do it ".
Not even Macron? “Macron embodies modernity, he has the right ideas, as a minister he could not do more but he has framed the things on which to intervene well. He won't become president now, but the future belongs to him ”, reiterates Aghion. The future is certainly not more than François Hollande: “It is not clear whether he will run again: I say that if he doesn't go, Valls will run. At that point it would be a good duel with Macron but Valls is too far to the right: on the burkini, for one thing, he got it all wrong ”. Aghion, as mentioned, doesn't believe much in Sarkozy or in the other loose cannons, whether they are in France or abroad: "I hope the era of extremism is over, I don't think Marine Le Pen has a chance and neither does Trump in America: he made a mistake in not moving towards the center after winning the primaries and proved to be too temperamental. Hillary wins."
Therefore, the internal survey, promoted by Ambrosetti – The European House among the managers and entrepreneurs present at the Forum, which showed that the possible election of Donald Trump could represent an even more threat to the markets than Brexit, has been denied, for example: “Brexit it wasn't a good thing but it wasn't a drama either”, comments Arguion, who closes the interview with a reflection on the international scene. Also from the survey carried out among the guests of Villa d'Este it emerges that Italian companies are returning to invest in Italy and in Europe, and less in emerging countries: “China is slowing down but it's not a problem. Russia needs to lift the sanctions, it's getting ridiculous. Brazil is in serious trouble: President Michel Temer is not legitimized, he took power with a half-coup, we'll see what happens. I see Chile as the new strong economy of South America, while on a global scale, attention is paid to Vietnam and to some African realities such as Ghana and Nigeria, which are growing at a dizzying pace”.
