Rather than asking whether the markets are experiencing a financial bubble, the crucial question is how close we are to the moment when it could deflateAnd this is precisely the most difficult point to predict. The May 2026 edition of the podcast "Al 4° piano" deals with this topic with Alessandro Fugnoli, strategist at Kairos Partners SGR.
According to the analyst For years, a phase of negative GDP for two consecutive quarters has been defined as a "recession"Over time, however, economists and analysts have come to understand that a recession is a much more complex phenomenon, often recognizable only in hindsight. The same is true for speculative bubbles: those of the past are now so evident that they fill books and university courses, but identifying them as they are forming is much more complicated. Predicting their end is even more difficult.
Historically, bubbles arise in favorable contexts, from geographical discoveries to AI.
Historically, bubbles arise in favorable contexts: abundance of liquidity, easy credit and financial instruments that allow you to amplify profits through leverage. They are almost always triggered by major innovations that fuel expectations of limitless growth: from geographical discoveries to the railway revolution, from radio to the internet, and even Artificial Intelligence.
According to Alessandro Fugnoli, the crucial factor is that these innovations appear destined to produce very long-term effects. If it were possible to precisely calculate the duration and impact of an innovation, the market would quickly incorporate it into prices. But when the future seems indefinite, Imagination takes over and investors start betting on potentially infinite scenarios.
Bubbles are first and foremost psychological phenomena: here are the three typical mistakes investors make.
Bubbles are therefore, first and foremost, psychological phenomena. In phases of collective euphoria, the desire to participate in the race overcomes prudence. It's not just staunch optimists who are participating, but also those who recognize the speculative excess and attempt to ride it out, confident they'll be able to resell at even higher prices. In these moments, even analysts and economists tend to favor the most favorable scenarios, often developing new metrics to justify ever-increasing valuations.
There are three typical mistakes investors make during a bubble. The first is to never leave the marketThe second, famous since the time of Isaac Newton during the South Sea Bubble, consists of selling too early, regretting it, and re-entering at higher prices, only to suffer the final collapse. The third mistake involves those who remain cautious during the bull market but decide to enter after the initial declines, mistaking for bargains prices that until recently seemed excessive.
So are we in a bubble today? Maybe so, but only for artificial intelligence.
But are we really in a bubble today? The answer isn't clear. It's difficult to argue this when looking at China, Europe, emerging markets, or traditional sectors of the American economy. However, the situation is different for everything that revolves around Artificial Intelligence.
Here two great protagonists emerge: on one hand the hyperscalers, the technological giants that invest enormous sums in the development of AIOn the other hand, semiconductor manufacturers have become central to the new technological race. The former aren't yet at extreme valuations, but doubts remain about the future profitability of the massive investments they're making. The latter, on the other hand, are benefiting from exceptional demand without having significantly increased production capacity: margins and prices have thus exploded.
There are no signs of a slowdown yet. But if demand were to slow, margins and valuations could decline rapidly. Ultimately, It seems premature to talk today about a full-blown bubbleAnd even if it does exist, its eventual outbreak does not necessarily seem imminent.
