And thirty. The hell of Volkswagen shares continues this morning in Frankfurt. The new decline leads to 30 billion the capitalization loss of the Wolfsburg giant from the beginning of the week. But, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, the time has not come to buy. Far from it. Also because, explains a report by the Bank, the precedents do not bode well. "Audi's precedent in 1987, when the company was called to answer in the USA for accidents related to the braking system, show that it takes at least ten years to regain confidence in that market".
The crash of Vw, meanwhile, has advised DB to lower forecasts on the Dax index: at the end of the year Frankfurt will close at 10.300, no longer at 11.200 according to the Bank's forecasts, which also appear optimistic given that the index is falling to 9.571 points.
The stock market numbers give an idea of the shock that has hit corporate Germany. "We need to clarify immediately," he said Angela Merkel, more astonished than angry, thus intervening on the scandal which has now assumed the aspect of a real political catastrophe, with a strong negative impact on the image of Germany. As well as, of course, for the Wolfsburg giant with its 600 employees who yesterday granted an encore of the Fall of the Gods on the Stock Exchange: -17,2% after -19% on Monday. In just two days, 25 billion euros went up in smoke, equal to twice the entire Fiat Chrysler group.
But yesterday sales spared no one, including the Italian-American group which closes at -6%, better than BMW (-6,3%), Mercedes (-7%) and Peugeot (-8%). Proof that the consequences of the "rigged" emissions scandal are proving disastrous for the entire auto sector, the main engine of investment and growth in the Old Continent.
The numbers are scary. A statement from Volkswagen itself revealed that there are in the world 11 million cars diesel engines of the group equipped with the Tib EA 189 device which allows, in the event of verification by the authorities, to lower the quantity of poisons released into the air by 40 times. This number is enough to demonstrate that the offending device was not used only in the United States where, among other things, environmental standards are less severe than in Europe. On the contrary, it is easy to deduce that the "avoidance device" was used on a large scale in Europe, where diesel is more widespread (while it is almost unknown in China).
The reaction from all over the world was immediate. The French Finance Minister Michel Sapin called for an inquiry at European level, a request that takes on a strong political significance: so far the German manufacturers' lobby has strongly conditioned the EU rules on emissions, to the detriment of the French and Italians, who boast "cleaner" engines. Italy has also taken action: Environment Minister Gianluca Galletti has asked for "objective feedback" from the group and the German regulator. Otherwise? "If necessary, the company will have to take similar initiatives to those already undertaken for the American market, also to protect Italian consumers". No less strong are the initiatives taken by South Korea and Australia. Besides, of course, from Berlin.
The immediate costs for the Wolfsburg company are enormous. The same house has announced yes set aside 6,5 billion euros to fix the offending cars. One digit enough to halve the group's profits (12,7 billion in 2014). But it is clear that this is a provisional figure: the company is threatened with a fine of 18 billion dollars. Meanwhile, criminal investigations are already taking place in the USA and in the mother country. Brunswick prosecutor Klaus Ziehe, competent for VW, has anticipated such a move to Die Handelsblatt ”.
“We will clarify everything as soon as possible,” said the CEO Martin Winterkorn. But it's not at all certain that it's up to him to lead the cleanup operation. Winterkorn, one of the most expert auto technicians, has always prided himself on knowing every single detail of his “creatures”. It is hardly credible that the rogue software, the result of precise industrial choices, was let slip. At this point, the turnaround at the top of the group seems very probable.
The successor, according to Tagesspiegel, has already been identified: Matthias Mueller of Porsche. "It's simply ridiculous", they retort from Wolfsburg while waiting for the board of directors convened on Friday for some time, ironically, to extend the mandate of the managing director to 2018, having already won the challenge with Ferdinand Piech. But it is very likely that Herr Winterkorn, one of the most powerful men in Germany, will have to give way. This has already been stated by Olav Lies, who represents the Land of Saxony on the board of directors, a large shareholder of the group.
As was inevitable, the suspicion of the conspiracy flourishes. Among the possible leads, the revenge of Piech, even if it is hardly credible that one of the major representatives of the family that descends from Ferdinand Porsche has made such a gesture. The general feeling, however, is that the practice of manipulating emissions data for the benefit of performance (and lower costs) is not exclusive to Wolfsburg. In the viewfinder, judging by the Stock Exchange, are a bit 'all manufacturers. Even if Fiat Chrysler is keen to stay out of the fray. "Our cars - reads a press release from Fiat USA - are not equipped with similar devices". The house has announced that it is working closely with the EPA and the California Air Resources Board to "ensure that its cars are in compliance with all the requirements regarding polluting emissions".
However, it is difficult to evaluate today the damages of the scandal, which will be epochal. For Germany, first of all. It will not be easy for Angela Merkel to impart new ethics lessons to partners. For the German car, already synonymous with quality. In general for the four-wheeled world which finds itself on the stand precisely in a moment of great technological efforts aimed at supporting investments for a "greener" future. The loss of credibility will make itself felt. As evidenced by the deafening silence of the Bigs, in the closing days of the Frankfurt motor show, the saddest party in the history of the four-wheeled Reich.
