Happy news in Piazza Gae Aulenti. European Central Bank authorized Unicredit to apply the Danish compromise in calculating the banking group's consolidated capital ratios. In other words, starting with the reporting for the third quarter of 2026, the institution led by Andrea Orcel will be able to take advantage of the rule that allows banks that hold shares in insurance companies to benefit from a wealth discount.
Danish Compromise: UniCredit to Gain 52bps on CET1 Capital
Last year, after completing the internalization of the life insurance banking business In Italy, by acquiring the stakes of its partners CNP Assurances and Allianz and creating UniCredit Life Insurance (from the joint venture CNP UniCredit Vita) and UniCredit Vita Assicurazioni (from UniCredit Allianz Vita), Piazza Gae Aulenti had announced that it would request authorization to apply the Danish Compromise.
After more than a year, the long-awaited green light has arrived. Insurance participations can therefore be treated by risk weighting rather than being deducted from the regulatory capital. And the discount is not insignificant: Unicredit estimates a benefit of approximately 52 basis points on the Cet1 ratio based on the situation as of the second quarter of 2026. The institute also emphasizes that the approval confirms "the group's commitment to obtaining approval by the end of September and helps further strengthen the rigorous approach to capital allocation."
“Although it is expected, in our opinion the news is positive for the bank as the Danish Compromise, in addition to strengthening the capital base, will guarantee a greater strategic flexibility“, explain the analysts of Equity which maintain a buy recommendation and a target price of 95 euros
The possible effects on banking risk
The green light from the ECB to the Danish compromise comes at a very delicate moment, namely while the second phase of the banking risk, with Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid for MPS and Siena's countermove came in the form of a double takeover bid, this time on Banco Bpm and Banca Generali.
Unicredit is currently out of the game. "For once, we're enjoying being observers and not actors. It's a lot of fun," he said with a smile last June. Andrew Orcel. However, that doesn't mean things won't change. The ECB has approved the implementation of the rule. free capital though which Piazza Gae Aulenti might decide to use for potential extraordinary transactions. And the options are multiple: some are speculating on a surprise (but not too surprising) move against one of MPS's two targets, Banco BPM and Banca Generali, and some are even talking about a forceful entry into Monte dei Paschi itself.
Regardless of Fantarisiko, there is also another effect to consider: as already happened to Intesa, Unicredit is recognized as a conglomerate financial institution authorized to use the Danish Compromise. This, on the one hand, makes it less costly from a capital perspective. Generali's 8,8% stake which Unicredit already has in its belly, on the other hand facilitates possible further moves in the insurance sector, which could push Orcel to continue his rise in the Trieste-based company's shareholding. May they be coming soon? the extra rounds of banking risk? It cannot be ruled out.
