The Fed is "strongly" considering the decision to cancel in the next release on monetary policy, the promise to "be patient" before proceeding with the rate increase. This was written by John Hilsenrath, the Wall Street Journal journalist who has often anticipated the moves of the central bank. The turning point could take place in the meeting of 17-18 March, with a view to a (slight) increase as early as June.
The markets reacted to the prospect of a change of course by the Fed. The Dow Jones index lost 1,85%, the S&P 500 1,7% and the Nasdaq 1,67%. With these declines, the New York stock exchange wiped out the gains it had accrued since the beginning of the year: a very different picture from last week's, when the American indices reached new all-time highs and the Nasdaq had regained, after almost 15 years, quota 5 thousand.
After a downward start, the Asian price lists recover. Tokyo, -04% at the start, is in positive territory. Weak Hong Kong -0,1%, Shanghai +0,7%. Under the push of the US currency, oil is once again losing ground: Brent at 57,9 dollars a barrel (-0,9%), Wti at 49,6 dollars (-0,6%).
US CURRENCY AT 12 YEAR HIGH. APPLE DOESN'T WAKE GOLD
The euro, which depreciated by more than one percentage point against the dollar yesterday, continues its downward run: this morning it reached a low of 1,0666, before recovering to 1,0695, still at its lowest level in 12 years . The market thus reacts to the launch of the ECB's quantitative easing program but also to the worsening of the Greek crisis.
But the strong dollar is also putting pressure on other currencies: Mexico, Malaysia, South Korea, Brazil and South Africa have set new lows. Gold continues to falter, falling to 1.156 dollars an ounce. For now, the expectations of the speculation for a rebound linked to the launch by Apple -2% (yesterday on Wall Street) of the iWatch, which includes a solid gold version for 10 thousand dollars, have been disappointed. According to the most optimistic estimates, the hi-tech giant could absorb about a third of the yellow metal's annual production.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS BREAKING BUSINESS PLACE
After hitting its highest level in the last four years on Monday, the Milan Stock Exchange fell by 0,5% yesterday. Behind the downward which interrupts a series of four positive sessions, there are also the disappointing data on industrial production, surprisingly dropped by 0,7% month on month in January, the first decline since September. The annual change returns to negative territory, -2,2% if corrected for calendar effects (from +0,1% in December ).
The other European Stock Exchanges also retreated: Frankfurt's Dax lost 0,71%, Paris' Cac40 1,12% and London's Ftse100 2,52%.
THE BTP SURPASSES SPAIN, THE BUND DOWN TO 0,231
After a 12-month chase, the 1,21-year BTP (yield 6% -1,24 bp, new all-time low) grabs the Spanish Bono (3,2%). The flattening of the German government bond yield curve continues, following the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing plan. The ECB and the euro zone's national central banks bought XNUMX billion euros of government bonds on Monday.
The German 0,709-year yield fell to an all-time low of 0,231%, and similarly the 97-year yield reached its lowest level ever at 1%. The spread widens to 12 basis points (+6,5). Today the first 7,6-month BOT auction will be held after the launch of the Qe: XNUMX billion will be offered against XNUMX in maturity.
ATHENS FIGHTS WITH THE DEFAULT SPECTRUM
The "technical" negotiations between the representatives of international institutions and the representatives of Greece resumed today in Brussels, while the country risks collapse. The road remains uphill: the Eurogroup, under German pressure, is asking for more stringent commitments from Athens. According to banking and government sources cited by the Reuters agency, Greece is ready to withdraw more than half a billion euros from the national bank rescue fund (Hellenic Financial Stability Fund) in an attempt to find money to deal with the credit crisis. The Greek government must find ways to manage the repayment of 1,5 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund this month and to refinance part of the 3,2 billion euros of maturing short-term bonds.
WALL STREET GELA FIAT CHRYSLER. THUD OF CNH
The slowdown on Wall Street has also affected the automotive sector. Fiat Chrysler fell 2,3% on the US market in the evening after closing on positive ground in Milan. Things went worse for CNH Industrial, which lost 3,06% in Milan, with above-average volumes. The disappointing accounts of the competitor Titan Machinery (-16%) dragged the share down, much lower than expected.
Broker Jefferies said North American farm equipment makers will face a difficult 2015. In particular, Titan expects 2016 sales in the farm equipment segment to drop between 20% and 25% and is planning a 14% cut. % of workforce to restore profitability. CNH's 2014 accounts also highlighted some problems.
Brembo shines (+3%), on the new historic record. Pirelli +3%: Equita raised the target price from 14 to 15,5 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
HEAVY ENI. SAIPEM, DIVIDEND FOR SAVINGS
Oil returns to fall, oil stocks suffer again. Eni drops by 2,5%. On Friday, the company will illustrate to analysts the new strategic plan and the amount of the coupon at the end of 2014. It will be an opportunity to take stock of the disposals and the probable spin-off of the Gas & Power division. Saipem loses 1,9%. Yesterday the BoD resolved not to distribute the dividend for ordinary shares and to distribute a dividend of 5% of the nominal value, equal to 0,05 euro, to savings shares. Tenaris also fell sharply (-3,8%).
STM SUPER. FINMECCANICA: ON DRS DI DECIDE IN JULY
There is no shortage of positive notes on the industrial front. Stm (+1,9%) reached new highs since May 2011. Citigroup confirmed the Buy judgment and adjusted the target price to 9,50 euro from the previous 7,50 euro. The group expects another year of growth for its wireless business in 2015, after years of losses, a resurgence that could eventually help Europe's largest semiconductor maker meet its margin growth targets.” Wireless remains a key driver of our strategy. We expect it to grow in 2015”, declared CFO Carlo Ferro, speaking at the meeting in Barcelona.
Finmeccanica also closes up: + 2,64%. During a hearing held on Monday before the Industry Commission in the Senate, the CEO Mauro Moretti indicated an "ordinary" net profit of 2014 million euros for 700. The manager clarified that a decision on the American subsidiary DRS (defence sector) will be taken around July. As regards the dividend policy, Moretti clarified that "as long as the money is not there we will not make debts to pay dividends, we will give them when we make profits". The results will be published on March 18th. The stock has posted a 43% gain since the start of 2015
BANKS, BPER STILL AT THE TOP
Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna was the best bank stock in today's FtseMib with a gain of 1,3% to 7,77 euros. In the first stages it reached new highs since June with a rise of 3% to 7,91 euros. On Monday, the stock finished the session up 3,7%, at 7,67 euros, thanks to the positive opinion of Goldman Sachs.
Pop.Milan +1%. Instead, Monte Paschi -2,75%, Ubi Banca -1,94% and Unicredit -1,14% lost ground. Understanding -0,1%.
DEBTS FALL, ASTALDI +7%
Weak Telecom Italia (-1,5%) and Mediaset (-1%). Among the luxury companies, Yoox continues to advance (+1,6%). Ferragamo -2%. A roller coaster day for Astaldi, which closed with a gain of 7,36% to 7,22 euro after the release of the 2014 results. Around mid-session, just before the data were published, the construction group's stock recorded strong fluctuations, with a drop of 9% to a low for the day of 6,20 euros, from which it quickly recovered. Net profit in 2014 increased by 21% to 81,6 million euros. The BoD has proposed the distribution of a dividend of 0,20 euro per share, up from 0,19 euro the previous year. The company press release underlines the sharp reduction in debt to 798,6 million euros, from 1.104,7 million in September 2014.
