Il real estate sector, considered as the sum of investments in construction, rental expenditure and brokerage services, it represents practically a fifth of the national GDP, and boasts crucial interdependencies for the determination of the aggregate cycle. Second the estimates ofResearch Area and IR of Banca MPS, in fact, taking into account the indirect effects, an increase in spending in the construction sector generates, on the entire economy, an overall impact in terms of value that is among the highest among those expected if the higher spending is alternatively destined for other sectors both in industry and in services.
With the resources allocated by the Government for new infrastructures, which have suffered a reduction since 1990 more than 60%, The construction sector is suffering from a persistent crisis with serious implications on the employment side: the weight of construction on the national VA has thus decreased steadily over the last seven years, reaching2013 to around 4,9% in real terms. From the application of the European flexibility clause envisaged for investments, resources could arrive (4/5 billion euros in 2014) to relaunch the sector, however it is Government action aimed at overcoming the incompatibility between the availability of European structural funds and their non-use to comply with the financial constraints set by the Stability Pacts is strongly needed internal regions and local authorities, as well as an adequate spending reviews, which can free up additional resources.
Also the residential segment is penalized, with the number of homes sold in Italy which has practically halved since 2007; the contraction, albeit slowing down, continues at substantial rates (-8% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2013).
The construction confidence indicator signals uncertain short-term prospects for the sector, while bending in house prices looks set to continue. In such a scenario, second the estimates ofResearch Area and IR of Banca MPS, assuming that in 2014 there is a limited recovery in residential sales (confirmed by the latest Nomisma Real Estate Observatory), mortgage disbursement could grow by almost 15%, also in the presence of more expansive offer policies by credit intermediaries.
From the analysis carried out, the importance of bank financing to the sector emerges, with the credit disbursed - in the form of mortgages to households, loans to construction companies and real estate service activities - which represents over a third of total bank loans and almost 50% of that intended for households and businesses. But the high degree of leverage registered by construction companies (financial debts in relation to the sum of the same and assets, in 2007 were 20 and 14 percentage points higher than the average ones of companies in industry and the service sector, respectively) represents a highly vulnerable factor which is reflected in credit quality. The latest evolution shows a significant drop in loans to the construction sector and greater stability in household mortgages, despite the marked decline experienced in the flows of new loans in recent years.
To relaunch the sector, the use of alternative financing channels to the banking one is decisive: from the diffusion of real estate funds and from the resumption of Project Financing solutions may come which in any case involve the involvement of the public partnership.
