The big dilemma is always the same: gut vote or head vote? While Roberto Formigoni, former governor of the Lombardy Region and leader of the "resurrected" Pdl, argues that what rehabilitated the center-right was a head vote, exactly the opposite is thought in the Democratic Party. And this is precisely one of the reasons why the defeat of the Democratic Party was not so unexpected.
This is explained by Marco Marturano, political analyst, president of the polling institute Game Managers & partners and spokesman for the electoral campaign of the candidate Barbara Pollastrini, number 3 on the list of the Democratic Party in Lombardy in the Chamber and winner of the provincial primaries. “The sum of the votes of Grillo and Berlusconi show us that the gut vote represents the vast majority. The Democratic Party made a rational proposal, while in the end the crisis made the destructive or emotional vote prevail. On the one hand Berlusconi's "dream", on the other the "nightmare" vision represented by the 5 Star Movement: these two states of mind prevailed at the polls".
However, the defeat of the Democratic Party, at least in Lombardy, was not so unexpected: "The last survey we had in hand - notes Marturano - gave us a good 4 points behind in this region". Therefore, with the partial results so far in hand, even worse than what was actually achieved, even if the counting of the regional votes that saw Umberto Ambrosoli and Roberto Maroni challenge each other has yet to be carried out, and could reserve even worse surprises than what was seen in the Senate.
What if the Renzi card had been played? Marturano's analysis is lucid. “Renzi in my opinion would have taken away some votes from Grillo, but not from the PDL. I am not able to say whether we would have won with him as a candidate: in Lombardy the primaries went well, but in all the southern regions it went very badly and therefore he would not have allowed us to snatch the majority in some key regions such as Sicily and Campania".
