Since midnight, Greece has been the first advanced country that has not repaid a debt to the IMF, ending up like Zimbabwe and Sudan "into arrears", or in the arena of defaulters, a more delicate formula that avoids saying the word default. A last-minute attempt to obtain a new postponement as well as the appeal to the Eurogroup failed. The Stock Exchanges are thus preparing for the third consecutive day of very high tension. For now in a surreal calm. There will never be a lack of twists even today.
ASIA RECOVERS, S&P CLOSES THE QUARTER IN THE RED
Asian stock markets recorded a slight rise, starting with Tokyo +0,3%, driven by good economic data. Even the Chinese Stock Exchanges, following the decision to allow purchases on the pension fund market, are in positive territory. The PMI indices show a slowdown in manufacturing activity higher than forecasts, but services are growing which, according to the World Bank, in 2017 will represent more than half of GDP.
The Greek crisis is also weighing on US price lists, pending events: Obama's intervention on Angela Merkel and François Hollande has not yet had any effect. At the end of the day Dow Jones +0,1%, S&P500 +0,3%. The index closed the second quarter in the red, as it hasn't happened since 2012. The Nasdaq recovered 0,6% after Monday's plunge. The default of Athens does not affect the performance of the euro for now, stable at 1,12 against the dollar.
MILAN, IN JUST TWO MINUTES, LOSES 0,7%
The European Stock Exchanges recorded, moment by moment, the trend of the confrontation between Brussels, Berlin and Athens. Piazza Affari, which gained 0,3% at 17:28, closed with a decrease of 0,4% accrued in the last two minutes of trading, in the wake of Angela Merkel's no to an agreement before the Greek referendum on Sunday .
A thrilling ending at the end of a very positive semester. The FtseMib index completes its halfway point with a gain of around 19%, placing itself among the best stock exchanges in the world and in first place among the European Stock Exchanges.
Last year the FtseMib showed up at the end of June with an increase of 12%, then completely burned in the second half of the year, so much so that the final result for 2014 was a paltry +0,2%. It went worse in the other squares of the Old Continent. The Paris Stock Exchange lost 1,6%, Frankfurt -1,2%.
BTP AUCTION, THE PRE-QE PRICES ARE REVISED
A day of high volatility also for sovereign debt. In the end, the BTP appreciated and closed at a yield of 2,32%, from 2,38% the night before. In the morning, the auction of medium/long-term bonds recorded stable demand but with sharply rising rates: the 5-year BTP was placed at 1,25%, a yield not seen since 27 June 2014. The 2,35-year it was allotted at XNUMX%, at last September's rates.
AT 11 P.M. THE EUROGROUP MEETINGS, BANKS IN THE HANDS OF DRAGHI
"Major elements are unfolding in Athens that will perhaps allow what the newspapers described this morning to not happen." So the president of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker to the audience of correspondent journalists in Brussels late yesterday afternoon, before the Eurogroup meeting convened urgently to examine the counter-proposals arriving from Greece to the latest offer from Brussels.
But the wait was disappointed. "No agreement is possible before the referendum" spelled out Angela Merkel, angry with the Greek delegation. The European ministers have rejected the sender's proposal to grant Athens a new extension and a new aid plan (this time to be paid by the ESM fund) for 29,1 billion, as much as Greece needs to repay debts due by 2017. Today, however, a new summit of finance ministers is scheduled for 11.
Meanwhile, the deadline for paying the installment of the Greek debt to the IMF has expired. Standard & Poor's downgraded the four major Greek banks, Alpha Bank, Eurobank Ergasias, National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank, to SD (default risk) from CCC/C.
What indications can you draw after such a day?
1) “Tsipras – is the comment of Anthilia sgr – has not abandoned the negotiations but continues to bombard the creditors with requests”.
2) There is therefore room for an agreement in extremis. But the loss of credibility of the Greek team weighs heavily.
3) Survey information is wasted. In particular, the possible affirmation of the "no" takes off.
IN PIAZZA AFFARI THE BANKS ARE KEEPING
Piazza Affari was supported by the recovery of the banking sector which held up despite the pressure exerted by the increase in yields on BTPs. Socgen confirmed the overweight recommendation on the sector, emphasizing that, "interesting buying opportunities can be created because of Greece".
The banks went up: Pop.Milano +2,2%, Unicredit +0,4%, weak Intesa -0,4% and MontePaschi -1,3%. Generali -0,6%, UnipolSai -0,7%.
BUZZI SHINES, THE JUDGE SINK FINCANTIERI
The best stock is Buzzi, up 3,9% after the promotion of Goldman Sachs which has included the stock in its Conviction Buy List. On the other hand, Saipem fell sharply (-2,3%), included in Mediobanca's short portfolio. Eni also down -1,12%, despite the news of the signing of an important contract in the Caspian Sea for the exploration of hydrocarbons and of a contract for the sale of liquefied natural gas in Indonesia,
Significant decrease also for Fincantieri (-2,92%), which suspended production activities in the Monfalcone shipyard after the carabinieri of the Udine ecological operating unit seized 4 areas for the collection and storage of waste deriving from processing.
Enel lost 1,4%, Snam -1,5%. Telecom closed up +.098%. Fiat Chrysler remained unchanged (+0,08% to 13,14 euros), which raised a revolving credit line signed with a group of 4,8 banks from 5 billion to 24 billion last June 9th.
BOFA BACKS THE LUXURY SECTOR
The luxury sector was also down sharply, conditioned by the release of the Bank of America – Merryl Lynch report which revised downwards the forecasts for the entire sector, starting with the flagship Lvmh (-2% in Paris). According to analysts "growth will be moderate, profitability will not see a recovery and yields will remain at current levels".
The report lowered Tod's rating -1,50% from neutral to underperform and the target price from 98 to 60 euros. Salvatore Ferragamo fell sharply -3,6% on which the US house maintained the neutral rating and the target price at 30 euros.
RADIO 101, MONDADORI SELLS TO MEDIASET
The Mondadori Board of Directors has decided to keep control of Radio 101 within the family. In fact, at yesterday's meeting, the CEO was given the mandate to proceed “with the acceptance of the expression of interest received from Rti, controlled directly by Mediaset, in relation to the acquisition of 80% of the share capital of Monradio, which owns the radio station R101”.
The offer includes an exclusive period until 20 September. The board chaired by Marina Berlusconi thus shelved the offer received from Lorenzo Suraci's Rtl 102.5 group which was around 35-40 million euros.
