Paul Gallo, at the helm of the gas distribution company, he had given himself a precise objective: to create the first European operator and today he takes the field with the details of the industrial plan to 2030.
The planned investments will be 15,6 billion euros, approximately double the 7,5 billion euros earmarked for theacquisition of 2i Rete Gas, to interventions for the development of gas distribution in Italy and Greece, to strengthen the presence in the water sector and the acceleration of growth in the field ofenergy efficiency, with a strong commitment to achieving EU climate objectives.
The expected synergies and operational efficiencies foresee a double-digit earnings growth over the course of the plan, therefore “it was possible to increase the floor of the dividend policy to 2026 bringing the guarantee of growth at 5% per year compared to the 2023 dividend of 0,352 euros per share, while confirming the 65% payout,” Italgas said.
“The 2024-2030 strategic plan will go down in Italgas' history as the European champion in gas distribution, further strengthening the commitment to the digital transformation of infrastructures, for the benefit of the entire country” is the comment of Cock. “The new dimension of the Group combined with innovation and digital transformation is the determining factor to ensure the achievement of the targets of the energy transition, the security of supplies and the sustainability of energy costs for people and businesses”.
A Business Square il Italgas title after having jumped by more than 2% at the opening, at mid-session it was down 0,93% to 5,40 euros.
Revenues of 2030 billion and EBITDA of 3,6 billion expected by 2,8
Just over the weekend Italgas has officialized the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas, previously owned by F2i and Ardian, for 5,3 billion euros. Driven by this acquisition and the investment plan, the Rab cumulative infrastructure, gas and water, in Italy and Greece, is expected to grow at a average annual rate (CAGR) of approximately 9,4%, reaching i 18,2 billion by the end of 2030. With the contribution of the tenders (to which 1 billion is allocated), the consolidated Rab is estimated at approximately 19,2 billion by 2030 (+10,2% cagr).
The merger with 2i should also lead to synergies and cost efficiencies which should reach 200 million which, together with the effects of the investments in digitization of the 2i Rete Gas networks, should push the revenues of approximately 3,6 billion with a ebitda di 2,8 billion by 2030.
In the plan, therefore, EBITDA and profit should grow with a CAGR about 13% andearnings per share, considering thecapital increase, of approximately 10%. All'beginning of September Italgas has launched a capital increase of around one billion euros to help finance the acquisition and Cdp Reti, which owns 25,99% of the company, has said it will participate in the increase pro rata with 260 million.
La expected financial structure for the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas and the significant cash generation allow to maintain net financial position under control: Rab’s debt ratio is seen peaking in 2025 – following the closing of the transaction – and returning to the 65% area by 2028.
2024 guidance confirmed: adjusted EBITDA between 1,32-1,35 billion
Everything confirmed, compared to what was approved last May 30th, regarding the guidance on 2024, net of acquisition: investments technicians of about 900 million and revenues adjusted for 1,8 billion, with a adjusted ebitda between 1,32-1,35 billion and an adjusted EBIT of 800 million. Excluding the impacts of Ifrs 16, net debt at the end of 2024 is expected at 6,6 billion with a leverage of 63%.
Dividends expected in the upper part
Looking at the dividends, in light of the expected results, it is confirmed until 2026, with a floor increased to reflect the high level of confidence in the expected results and with the aim of guaranteeing shareholders an attractive, sustainable remuneration and the possibility of continuing to benefit from the expected growth. The new policy provides for the distribution of a dividend equal to the greater of the amount resulting from the 2023 dividend of 0,352 euros, increased by 5% per year, maintaining the payout - the measure that defines the ratio between the net amount of profits and the portion distributed to shareholders - at 65% of the adjusted net profit per share.
12,8 billion will go to the network: 2,7 billion for digitalization
Furthermore, for the development of the Italian network of distribution gas are expected 12,8 billion (+7,8 billion compared to the 2023-2029 plan), of which 2,7 billion allocated to digitization. This share includes the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas, the complete digitalization of its network, in line with Italgas standards, the application of the system Dana 2.0 (Digital Advanced Network Automation) further enhanced by artificial intelligence and the commitments already undertaken in the Atem tenders recently awarded to the group. The mass diffusion of Nimbus, the smart meter that will be installed on a large scale starting from 2025, including on the new assets of 21 Rete Gas, to reach 6 million units installed by 2030.
1 billion will be allocated to Greece
Enaon, the Greek subsidiary, has earmarked 1 billion in investments by 2030, mainly for thenetwork extension and its digital transformation, thus promoting the penetration of natural gas even in areas not yet reached by the service, in addition to enabling it for the distribution of renewable gases. The massive installation of Nimbus is also planned in Greece. These investments will allow the Greek network to be extended from 7.924 kilometers in 2023 to over 11 thousand kilometers at the end of the plan (approximately +40%) and to increase the number of customers served from 600 thousand in 2023 to just under 1 million in 2030.
450 million invested in the water sector, also for targeted M&A operations
Investments will also go to the water sector, to which they will be assigned 450 million of investments in the next 7 years, both for selected operations M&A, both to borrow the best practices and technologies developed in gas distribution in water networks. With reference to theenergy efficiency, instead, once the Superbonus season is over, the focus remains on expanding the business organically and through external lines, with a total expected investment of 300 million.
