Il credit profile of Italian companies goes improving compared to a few months ago, managing to cope with the contingent difficulties and showing a economic system all in all healthy.
This is what emerges from a Credit Outlook 2023 di Cerved Rating Agency, the Italian rating agency specialized in assessing the creditworthiness of companies and measuring ESG performance, which analyzed a portfolio of over 18.000 companies representative of the Italian economy.
The report identifies in particular a quota of 1.087 companies with a sufficient financial economic structure solid to be able to issue a good 2023 billion euros in 13,1 minibonds, of which more than halfgreen” (6,7 billion), thanks to the presence of 537 possible issuers in the sectors most exposed to the ecological and energy transition.
The general risk factors remain
Not that there aren't risk factors that have a negative impact, such as inflation, interest rate trends and energy costs. The instability of the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation is reflected on the basic scenario, more optimistic, which estimates a default probability of Italian companies at 5,80% in December 2023, down from 5,91% last June, up from 5,68% in December 2022, and significantly above 4,45 .2019% at the end of XNUMX, says the survey. If you then consider one adverse scenario, where there is a significant worsening of the economic situation and a new rise in energy prices and interest rates, the probability of default would rise to 7,23%, but currently this hypothesis is not the most quoted. “The data still do not correct the increase in risk that occurred during and after Covid, even if the situation is improving compared to a few months ago: the current forecast of 5,8% of perceived risk in December 2023 is in fact lower than the 5,91% in June 2023 calculated in the middle of last year", he explains Fabrizio Negri, Chief Executive Officer of Cerved Rating Agency.
The sectors: for some the risk of default has decreased, tourism in particular
From the analysis of the sectors, a highly differentiated trend emerges in the basic scenario: if, on the one hand, the services linked to and to accommodation facilities, the market pharmaceuticals and information and communication they show a reduction probability of default (respectively -12%, -11% and -6%), on the other hand the slowdown in demand, combined with still high energy prices for 2023, seems to determine an increase in the expected risk for segments such as plastic and rubber (+ 10%), chemist (+ 10%) and agriculture (+ 8%).
In terms of company size, the highest probabilities of default concern SMEs, with estimates that would reach 6,03%, but unlike previous years, the increase in risk would also affect big companies, which would go from 2,9% at the end of 2022 to 3,25% at the end of 2023.
Estimated issuance of 13,1 billion minibonds by over 1.000 companies
Cerved has also estimated a potential minibond market of 2023 billion euro for 13,1, for over a thousand (1087) possible issuing companies. Billions which could fall to 11,7 in the event of a negative scenario (weakening of the economic situation and persistence of inflationary pressures driven by energy prices and an increasingly restrictive monetary policy). A place of all respect then occupy i mini green bonds, which would reach 6,7 billion euros with 537 potential issuing companies, belonging to sectors most exposed to the ecological and energy transition: construction, automotive, manufacturing activities, electricity, gas and water supply, waste management, transport and warehousing, information and communication services, real estate activities, agriculture, iron and steel, chemicals, plastics and rubber, machinery manufacturing.
