In the forecasts of Italian companies, the Coronavirus could produce a 12% drop in turnover and a 19% drop in employment in the next 9 months. This is what emerges from a vast sample survey conducted by the MET (Economics and Territory Monitoring), an independent study center directed by the economist Raffaele Brancati and a gathering point for scholars from various Italian universities. The survey was carried out on the basis of over 7.800 interviews with a representative panel of entrepreneurial subjects questioned between 24 March, or two weeks after the lockdown, and 7 April 2020.
The results of the survey are worrying and reveal that “the most affected are the medium-small sized subjects engaged in research/innovation and penetration of international markets that are not yet consolidated", while, surprisingly, the territorial effects of the pandemic "they are not particularly penalizing for southern industry".
The forecasts concerning both the turnover and the employment of companies are very heavy. “In a horizon that reaches 2021 – reads the research – 48,9% of companies expect a sharp drop in turnover (greater than -15%), 31% expect a moderate decline (between -15% and -5%) and only 20% expect growth, and among these only a small minority see strong growth. The same percentages of decline are higher for micro and small enterprises in the industrial sectors, with an average value of 54% in these cases. The most pessimistic are the Made in Italy sectors and above all the paper, printing and publishing sectors, with a sharp decline expected by 70% of operators” which stands at around 30%, “while there do not appear to be strong territorial differences”.
The change in prospects induced by Covid-19 and the expected values for exports, again at twelve months, "are only slightly less gloomy: on average -16,9%, with values below -9% for companies with 50 employees in on". Furthermore, "research programs are changing significantly for everyone compared to the pre-crisis situation: 44,2% of subjects who had R&D programs before, expect to cancel them" above all but not only in micro-enterprises.
The MET survey shows that “the changes in conditions for access to credit represent a significant concern, with a worsening of the situation for 37,2% of companies", especially for companies with fewer than 50 employees, for which "financial fragility at the start of the crisis seems to be the most delicate point".
Very relevant appear gThe effects of the Coronavirus crisis on employment, which at 12 months are "equal, on average, to 8,8%". But the value stands at -9,4% for micro-enterprises, at -5% for large ones, with lower values for small (-4,4%) and medium-sized (-3,1%) which, while suffering, they seem able to better withstand the crisis as has often happened in other previous crises, according to the annual surveys of the Mediobanca Research Department. “With all the limits of analysis so simplified – warns the MET – on average who does research forecasts a drop in employment of about three and a half points less in 12 months (-6,7% compared to -9,2%)”.
How do companies expect to face such a worrying situation not only in terms of turnover but also in terms of employment? The MET survey shows that "the temporary closure - in most cases forced by government provisions - affects 46% of companies, with a share that drops to around 30% for companies with more than 50 employees". For those who resist, the two main defensive measures are the massive use of telework (which affects on average 30,9% of companies, with shares that rise with the growth of size up to about 80% for large companies, but which in the South is about half that of the North-West) and the 'use of social shock absorbers, which concerns an average of 28,9%, but the share exceeds 55% already starting from 10 employees and above.
"It depends on the behavior of the policy makers and the actions implemented - concludes the MET research - the possibility that the forecasts indicated in the survey will not come true". But it won't be easy.
