The Bear dominates the real world, while the Bull goes crazy in the virtual one, the realm of the web giants. The bubble of the metaverse develops in a way that is as rapid as it is surprising, almost oblivious to the rise in market rates and the rapid fall of the indices of real US production. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield is heading towards 100% and oil is heading towards 69 dollars. Better to play video games: like in a Hollywood film, Microsoft challenges its rival Meta (formerly Facebook) with a XNUMX billion investment in Activision, waiting for the Fed to put inflation in order, to the detriment of the more naïve investors.
TECH GOLDMAN SACHS IN FREE FALL -7%
The Nasdaq closed down 2,6% last night at 14.507 points, below its 500-day moving average, an important line for the chart picture. The S&P 1,8 lost 2,3%. Down the sector indices of finance (-2,5%) and information technology (-0,4%). The Energy index rose by XNUMX%.
The reaction to the accounts of Goldman Sachs was heavy (-7%), which failed to achieve its goals. But bonuses for top management have increased all the same.
The landslide continues: Nasdaq futures are down 0,8% this morning.
SONY -9% AFTER THE MICROSOFT BLITZ: 70 BILLION FOR ACRIVISION
In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei lost 2,2% in the final session. In this index, Sony marks a drop of 9% in the aftermath of the maxi-operation in the world of videogames: the purchase of Activison by Microsoft (68,9 billion cash) will lead to the birth of a dominant entity in paper video games: the Playstation ecosystem faces a very important threat.
Seoul's Kospi -1%, Sydney's S&P ASX200 -1%. The Mumbai Stock Exchange is down 0,4% at the start of the session.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists loses 0,5%. On parity the Hang Seng of Hong Kong. Real estate companies rebound after the promise of support that also arrived yesterday from the Central Bank. Evergrande +4%.
THE 2-YEAR T BOND AT 1.04%, BRENT AT 88 DOLLARS
The ten-year Treasury Note, following the latest sell-off, yielded 1,87%. The two-year bond is at 1,04%. Both are at the highs of the last two years.
WTI oil is up 1%, at 86,5 dollars a barrel, a new high for the period; Brent exceeded 88 dollars. For Goldman Sachs, prices will exceed the $100 barrier by September.
The explosion that knocked out the Iraq-Turkey pipeline last night risks complicating supplies. US Crude Inventories data is out today. The White House National Security Council announced tonight that the Biden administration is asking producing countries to maintain an adequate level of supply.
THE BUND GOES BACK TO ZERO, THE ZEW APPLAUDS
The negative signals arriving from the USA have found punctual confirmation in European exchanges; the euro weakens to 1,1334 against the dollar; the pressure on rates pushes the Bund one step away from the zero threshold, reached in the morning. But what heartens the markets of the Old Continent is the confidence of German investors, convinced that the worst of the pandemic is behind us.
The sentiment detected by the Zew index increased in January, due to an increase in confidence on the progress of the pandemic: the incidence of Covid cases will decrease by the beginning of the summer, allowing for a recovery in growth in the next six months. This is what emerges from the data published by the economic research institute, which rose to 51,7 points from 29,9 in December. A Reuters poll had indicated an increase to 32,0.
BERLIN: "PANDEMIA OVERCOME BY SUMMER"
“The economic outlook has improved markedly as we enter the new year. Most financial market experts assume that economic growth will pick up in the next six months,” Zew chairman Achim Wambach said in a statement. “It is likely that the phase of economic weakness in the fourth quarter of 2021 will soon be over. The main reason for this is the assumption that the incidence of Covid-19 cases will decrease significantly by early summer,” he added.
The European Central Bank will adjust its monetary policy more quickly if inflation remains higher than expected for longer, Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said.
THE SPREAD RISES, THE OPERATORS BET ON THE QUIRINALE
Meanwhile, area securities are under pressure from US bonds. The 0-year Bund rate closed within a whisker of 1,75%, while Italian paper was also affected by the offer. This morning the Treasury placed 10 billion in 20- and XNUMX-year BTPs.
The spread on the Italian secondary rises and the Italian 1,31-year bond reaches a rate of +0,06%, against -137% for the Bund, in line with yesterday's closing. The differential thus grows to 0,93 basis points (+XNUMX%).
Meanwhile, the bets on the race to the Quirinale are accelerating. UniCredit expects the Btp-Bund spread to narrow in the 120 basis points area in the event that there is broad consensus on Draghi as president of the Republic or to support him as premier by electing another figure as president. The spread could tighten even more in the event that Mattarella decides to accept a second term on condition that Draghi has broad support to finish his mandate. Finally, it is expected to be around 175 basis points if the elections were to take place in a climate of greater political uncertainty, leading to early voting.
MILAN IN RED, EVEN CHOCOLATE PAYS FOR BOTTLE NECKS
Piazza Affari closes with a drop of 0,74%, at 27.483 basis points. Frankfurt -1,01%; Paris -0,94%; Madrid -0,66%; London -0,59%. Particularly penalized was Amsterdam (-1,49%), the most technological place in the Old Continent.
Bottlenecks hit chocolate as well: Lindt & Sprungli fell 2,7% after saying the slowdown in its North American business in the second half of 2021 was in part due to temporary bottlenecks in the chocolate supply chain. Russell Stover brand.
Ubisoft flies to Paris (+11,8%) in the wake of the extraordinary Microsoft/Activision operation. But to avoid a sharp fall in the Cac 40, pushed down by luxury, is TotalEnergie (+1,5%) on the wave of Brent prices.
GENERALI: "PATTISTS OFFEND US"
Generals +1,48%. After a river meeting, last night the Leo council replied with a note as short as it was sharp Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone resigned and Romolo Bardin. The Triestine management body "meeting under the chairmanship of Gabriele Galateri di Genola, took note of the resignations and categorically rejected the reasons given in the communications of resignation, pointing out their absolute groundlessness and censuring their often offensive nature". Words that could herald legal aftermath, on one side or the other. The expression "majority", among other things, seems to indicate the contrary opinion of the councilor Paolo Di Benedetto, already on other occasions in solidarity with the exponents of the three-way pact formed by Caltagirone, Del Vecchio and the Crt Foundation.
At the center of the meeting was the first draft of the list of candidates for the role of chairman and chief executive officer to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting on 29 April. At yesterday's meeting, the board began examining the long list. Almost 30 names, which in February will be skimmed off and in mid-March will become the dozen to be proposed to members on 29 April. Even Alberta Figari, independent of Generali in the third round, has not given availability for the renewal. She while she would have given it, among others, Gabriele Galateri, president since 2011 and who therefore, if renewed, will no longer be independent.
CONTINUE THE RACE OF TENARIS
Tenaris is the pink jersey of Piazza Affari for the second day in a row: +2,1%. But the advance in oil does not favor Eni that much (+0,4%). In negative territory Saipem (-2,7%).
TIM: KKR'S TENDER OFFER IS AWAY, LABRIOLA'S PLAN OK
Tim was also heavy yesterday (-3,2%), punished by Barclays which reduced the target price from 0,35 to 0,27 euro, confirming the neutral recommendation (equal-weight). The general manager Pietro Labriola, in pole position to become CEO, illustrated the guidelines of the new three-year industrial plan to the directors. The prospect is that of a split of Tim into two companies, both listed, one for the network (NetCo) and one for services (ServiceCo), to facilitate the merger with Open Fiber, which in any case would take a long time.
Judging by the decline in stocks, it seems to be slipping into the background Kkr's expression of interest and therefore the speculative appetite for the stock collapses. The landing of Iliad in the fixed network weighs even more. Intesa writes in the daily: today's launch of Iliad's fixed line offer "is destined to further increase the competitive pressure on the segment of fixed network services in Italy".
UNICREDIT SELLS NON-PERFORMING LOANS
In the banking sector, Unicredit (+0,5%) stands out, which concluded an agreement with a securitization vehicle managed by Kruk for the sale without recourse of a portfolio of non-performing loans deriving from credit agreements with customers in the corporate segment.
A minus instead for the other credit institutions: Banco Bpm -1,5%, Mediobanca -0,8%. Little move Intesa San Paolo.
LUXURY SUFFERS, BUT PRADA'S ACCOUNTS SHINE
Suffers the Luxury waiting for the quarterly. Down Moncler -2%, in line with Ferrari -2,1%. Also negative are Ferragamo -1,7% and Tod's -2,2% on which Morgan Stanley reduced their respective recommendations from equal-weight to underweight.
Brilliant results from Prada, a Made in Italy jewel listed in Hong Kong: turnover up to 3.364 million, 41% more than in 2020, and 8% more than in 2019.
EQUITA PROMOTES ATLANTIA SHOPPING
Atlantia recovers ground (+0,3%): the market appreciates the agreement signed on Monday evening with Siemens to take over Yunex Traffic which "allows the group to diversify into sectors adjacent to its core business, becoming a global leader in traffic management, where double-digit growth rates, and at the same time to improve its positioning in smart mobility”, comments Equita.
MILAN FAIR HOLDS UP, BALZO DI CLABO
Fiera Milano (-2,5%) pays for the postponement of the Salone del Mobile from April to June due to the pandemic situation.
Leap of Clabo (+5,43%). The company, world leader in the sector of professional display cases for ice cream parlors, pastry shops, bars, cafes and hotels, benefited from the news of preliminary consolidated revenues in 2021 of 51,1 million euros, an increase of 43,8% compared to the previous year. Fly Trendevices (+28,26%) in the wake of last year's data. In fact, as at 31 December 2021, preliminary revenues for the fourth quarter amounted to 7,136 million euros, up by 115%.
