While governments are still struggling to find a balance between the need to speed up the energy transition and that of avoiding shocks to the real economy still dependent on fossil fuels, world finance has already decided: sustainability is the business of the future. Not only because the fight against climate change can no longer be postponed, but also because investing in ESG criteria is becoming more convenient day by day in terms of returns, profits and reputation. In fact, if we shift our gaze from Government policies to the industrial plans of companies and multinationals, we immediately realize that the doubts and controversies we witnessed during the Glasgow Cop26 melt away like snow in the sun. No hesitation by companies that have made sustainability one of the fundamental pillars of their investment strategies. Nor by investment banks and large funds - from HSBC to BlackRock, via Goldman Sachs - who have decided to take the lead in the fight against climate change, even going so far as to set either-or: we no longer invest in products and companies that do not place environmental, social and good governance parameters at the center of their work.
NUMBERS AND ESTIMATES
The sustainable turnaround that finance has already undertaken is visible both in the numbers and in the forecasts. According to the Renewable Energy Investment Tracker report by BloombergNEF, in the first half of 2021, investments in renewable energy reached 174 billion dollars, the highest figure ever recorded, while from 2015 to today it has even reached 2.200 billion spent on clean energy. Figures that clearly show the direction taken by funds, governments and companies on the energy transition and which become even more ambitious if we look to the future from the present. Assuming growth of 15%, a slower pace than that maintained in the last 5 years, Bloomberg intelligence it expects investments in ESG assets to reach $2025 trillion by 53 from an estimated $37,8 trillion at the end of 2021, representing more than a third of the $140,5 trillion of global assets under management. Europe will contribute half of global ESG assets, while the US could dominate the category starting in 2022.
THE GREEN BONDS
To achieve the climate goals agreed in Paris and confirmed in Glasgow, green bonds will be essential. Since the first green bond issued in 2007 by the EIB, the road traveled has been long and, to date, according to estimates by the Climate Bond Initiative, global emissions have exceeded 1,4 trillion dollars. The forecasts, however, even in this case, are even more ambitious. The CBI estimates, based on a survey conducted on a sample of 353 subjects, speak of 5 trillion green bonds by 2025, with an intermediate target of one trillion a year for new placements to be reached by 2022/2023. "The long-awaited trillion mark is now considered realistic by the market", explained the CEO of the Climate Bonds Initiative, Sean Kidney, underlining that "it is an investment in the real economy because it plans to allocate capital towards infrastructure, clean energy , transport, buildings and sustainable agriculture”.
In this scenario, the European Union is called to play the lion's share, especially if one considers that, according to what has been established, 30% of the funds (250 billion in all) needed to finance the Next Generation Eu will come from the issue of green bonds, making the EU the first issuer in the world in this segment. It is no coincidence that on 12 October Brussels issued the first green bond of the programme, collecting orders for over 135 billion euros. Among the subscribers, 10% came from Italy, which aims to play a leading role in the continental landscape of green debt.
And here too, sustainable bonds have become an interesting opportunity. Both for companies – from Enel which has been the forerunner to Snam, A2a and FS which have been issuing Esg-Linked bonds with excellent results for years – and for the Government. On 3 March 2021, the Treasury issued the first Btp Green for 8,5 billion euros with a maturity of 2045, receiving subscriptions in excess of about 10 times the offer. A result that prompted the Ministry of Economy and Finance to announce a new offer on 19 October, this time for an amount of 5 billion euros.
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THE RULES
The river of money that is pouring into sustainable assets needs clear and certain rules. The danger of greenwashing, the odious phenomenon that causes companies and governments to present as sustainable what in reality is not, should not be underestimated. To ensure that the money invested flows where it is needed, stimulating the growth of the green economy, for years the European Union has been working on the taxonomy, a regulation that establishes which investments can be considered sustainable and which cannot on the basis of criteria that aim to accelerate the energy transition and to make a "substantial contribution" to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
In the list of sustainable activities, drawn up not without difficulty and controversy, there will also be room for gas and nuclear energy. "For the energy mix of the future we need more renewables but also stable sources and the Commission will adopt a taxonomy that also covers nuclear and gas", announced the vice president of the EU Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis. "We are preparing the new delegated act, we do not have a concrete date for the Commission proposal but it will be done in the near future without delay," he added.
