Pending the launch of the US tax reform, Asian stock markets opened the Christmas week with a robust rise. Leading the race is Japan (+1,3%), supported by record data: economic growth accelerates, supported by the export boom, especially to China (+25% compared to a year ago) and the Use (+13%). The labor market (unemployment at 1%) marks new all-time highs, business confidence is skyrocketing, as indicated by the Tankan index, never so high since 2006. But, despite the boom period, the Bank of Japan is about to confirm its sub-zero interest rate policy at its last meeting of the year, scheduled for Thursday: inflation, in fact, remains nailed to 0,8%.
CHINA, THE PARTY COOLS GROWTH
Positive ground also for China and Hong Kong (+0,3%), despite the tightening on rates practiced over the weekend: attention is focused on the economic summit of the Communist Party which got underway this morning. Observers predict that the summit will propose the adoption of stricter rules on credit, to the detriment of the growth rate (from 6,5 to 6% for 2018). Sydney also made progress (+0,7%) under the pressure of purchases of mining stocks.
CHICAGO GRADUATES VIRTUAL MONEY, TOWARDS AN OFFICIAL ETF
Bitcoin in slight slowdown after the first high school exam in the US. Trading has also started at the Cme in Chicago, the most important derivatives market in the world. Electronic money, which hit a new high at 19.666 dollars yesterday evening, was thirsty at 18.430, while the future for mid-January fell by 3,6% at the end of the first trading day. The slowdown, modest after all, was judged favorably by the operators.
After the positive run-in on the Cbot (the other Chicago Stock Exchange), where trading stabilized at around 1.000 contracts per day (after the peak of 4 at the start), the goal is to guarantee the cryptocurrency a more liquid. At this point, the last step is approaching in view of the definitive affirmation: the birth of an ETF traded on official US price lists. Says Morningstar's Ben Johnson: "With the emergence of an efficient futures market, the SEC's objections to a Bitcoin ETF are set to fall."
TAX, WITH THE REFORM 2,6 BILLION MORE FOR WARREN BUFFET
"I have no doubt that the tax reform will be approved this week." So yesterday evening in an interview with Fox TV the US Treasury secretary, Stephen Mnuchin, after all the Republicans have dissolved the residual reservations on the president's project. Barring surprises, therefore, Wall Street will find under the tree "the greatest gift ever", as Donald Trump defined it, capable of supporting the index race towards new records.
Analysts are remaking their estimates on the basis of the new corporate tax rates (from 35 to 21%) and the probable rain of buybacks trying to orient themselves among the 503 pages of the text. The most advantaged sector could be the banking sector, followed by sectors that will not have to repatriate profits from abroad (among others, airlines and the oil refining industry). But there will be positive surprises, especially for the richest. For Warren Buffett alone, so critical of the president, the cut in corporate taxes will result in savings of 2,6 billion dollars.
WALL STREET BETS GOLDMAN SACHS ON TWITTER
The economic data arriving this week will enliven the financial scene, pending the changing of the guard at the Fed. The most important concerns the final GDP figure for the third quarter (confirmation of the 3,3% increase is expected), but the trend of the real estate market, the trend of consumer confidence and industrial production will also need to be monitored.
On the corporate front, pay attention to the quarterly data of Nike and, even more, of Fedex. The logistics giant that represents a precious thermometer of the economy. Lots of curiosity on Twitter. A photo showing CEO Jack Dorsey in conversation with Goldman Sachs number one Lloyd Blankfein was released on the company's website on Thursday. A feeble signal, but sufficient to make the share jump by an abundant 7% on Friday due to an alleged interest by the Bank in the tweet company.
ELECTIONS IN SOUTH AMERICA: CHILE ALSO TURNS TO THE RIGHT.
New victory of the right in South America. Billionaire Sebastian Pinera will be the president of Chile for the second time, after defeating Michelle Bachelet who has governed the country for the past four years. Pinera's affirmation completes the conservative poker at the helm of the continent: Mauricio Macri rules Argentina, Michel Temer Brazil, Pedro Pablo Kuczinsky Peru.
CATALONIA TOWARDS THE VOTE, DUEL IN LONDON ABOUT BREXIT
In Europe, the not easy start of the second phase of Brexit is taking center stage. Theresa May today faces a difficult confrontation with her government colleagues, among whom there is no shortage of opponents of London's concessions to the EU.
But the Eurozone's attention is focused on Barcelona. Elections will be held in Catalonia on Thursday, a decisive test on Spain's political future. The central government hopes that a decisive no will emerge to secession and to the pro-independence impulses of the richest region.
EVEN IKEA IN THE SIGHT OF THE EU TAX
After the greats of US technology, today the Swedish giant Ikea officially enters the sights of EU commissioner Margrethe Verstage, guilty, according to the EU authorities, of having evaded taxes for one billion euros between 2009 and 2014.
On the debt securities front, Portugal's exploit should be noted. On Friday, the 1,8-year Lisbon bond was traded at around 127%, in line with the yields of the BTP. Several analysts are betting on the next overtaking, partly due to the political tensions in Italy. But also for the improvement of the Portuguese debt/GDP ratio, which is starting to fall from 120 to XNUMX%.
BANCHE, VISCO AND GHIZZONI AUDITIONS UNDERWAY
The optimism that prevails in global finance does not find any support in Piazza Affari which, grappling with pre-election fears and tensions over the source of credit, closed its worst week since the beginning of 2017 with a loss slightly higher than 3%. However, the FtseMib index retains the advantage accumulated since the beginning of 2017 compared to the rest of the Eurozone: +15% against +8,5% of the global Eurostoxx index.
There will certainly not be a Christmas atmosphere in the parts of Parliament in the hottest week of the work of the Commission of Inquiry on Banks. Minister Pier Carlo Padoan will be heard today, tomorrow it will be Ignazio Visco's turn, Wednesday the former CEO of Unicredit, Federico Ghizzoni, who will tell the truth about Maria Elena Boschi's requests, real or presumed, to help Popolare dell'Etruria. Vittorio Grilli, former director general of the Treasury, deputy minister and minister of the economy, Giulio Tremonti (who described the Commission as "a farce") and Fabrizio Saccomanni are called for Thursday. Finally, on Friday, Flavio Valeri, CEO of Deutsche Bank Italia, and Mario Monti, former prime minister, take their seats opposite the parliamentarians.
A decisive week also for the manoeuvre: the objective is to bring the text for the vote to the classroom as early as Tuesday.
MPS IN ASSEMBLY, TOMORROW IT'S THE CREVAL'S TURN
On the corporate front to be reported today the assembly of Monte Paschi di Siena. After the resignation of Alessandro Falciai, who withdrew his willingness to confirm his presidency because he was involved in an investigation into the Mondomarine shipyards, the Treasury seems oriented to focus on the MEF manager Antonino Turicchi.
Spotlights turned on tomorrow on the Creval assembly, called to pronounce itself on the mega capital increase.
Finally, on Thursday, the offer of the unexercised rights of the Carige capital increase will close.
PIRELLI ENTERS THE FTSE MIB BASKET
Also noteworthy today is the promotion in the main basket of Pirelli in place of Banca Mediolanum. The interim dividend of Stm is also envisaged.
The spotlight is also on Luxottica after yet another relay at the top: CEO Massimo Vian left the group three months in advance (but with a liquidation of 6,3 million euros). His powers were assumed by the president Leonardo Del Vecchio and his deputy Francesco Milleri, who becomes CEO.
Tomorrow the corporate calendar also includes the ordinary shareholders' meeting of Campari.
THE INDEX OF MADE IN ITALY BRANDS IS LAUNCHING TODAY
Despite the environmental difficulties, the interest of international operators in Piazza Affari is growing. Borsa Italia reports that over 7.400 funds headed by 1.600 investment houses from all continents and from over 45 countries invest in securities listed in Milan and are continually looking for new investment opportunities.
This is the framework in which exchanges on the Italia Brands basket kick off this morning, developed by Borsa Italiana with the support of a panel of sector experts, with the aim of enhancing the "main intangible assets" of the champions in the made in Italy. The stocks included in the basket are 22: Autogrill, Brembo, Brunello Cucinelli, Campari, Damiani, De'Longhi, Ferrari NV, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, Fila, Geox, Luxottica Group, Moncler, OVS, Piaggio & C., Pininfarina, Piquadro , Pirelli & C., Safilo Group, Salvatore Ferragamo, Technogym, Tod's, Yoox Net-A-Porter Group.
