The spread between the BTP and the Bund rose to 181 points, the highest levels since last January 11, equal to a yield of 4,89 percent. In the wake of the electoral outcome, the spread for the Spanish Bonos also worsens: the gap from the German Bunds is 255,7 points. Record also for Greece: the spread with German securities reached 1379.6, the absolute maximum. These are the figures of the new storm that has hit the euro area, in an extremely delicate moment of the crisis. “The meetings that will have to make decisions on Greece – explains Alessandro Fugnoli, Kairos strategist – are scheduled for mid-June. Therefore, a two-week window has opened in which speculation will be able to operate undisturbed. Barring news, I wouldn't be surprised if the situation could get worse. Even if from Friday to today nothing has substantially changed".
Indeed, the negative outlook of S&P on Italy, even if mitigated by the opinion expressed today by Moody's, had the effect of pushing the Treasury to bring forward the definition of the 2013/14 maneuver to mid-June in order to achieve a balanced budget. A push in the right direction, even if insufficient to compensate for the negative news, among which the electoral result in Spain stands out. “In reality – continues Fugnoli – the EPP does not have the reputation of being a party of spendthrifts. However, in these moments, it is feared that holes in the budget will be discovered during the government relay”.
The fragility of the euro area was immediately reflected in the currency markets. The single currency retreated against the dollar below 1,40 (at 12 the exchange rate was 1,3985). The most relevant note, however, concerns the run of the Swiss franc against which the euro has slipped to 1,2345, and travels towards 1,20.
The turbulence of the money and currency markets largely explains the difficult day for stock markets, both in Asia, where new signs of a slowdown in the Chinese locomotive weighed, and throughout Europe. The coupon effect also weighs on Piazza Affari: today as many as 64 companies pay their dividends, with a negative impact of 1,85 percent. The price list, which started in the morning with a decrease of more than 3 per cent, then partially corrected up to -2,98 (quotation at 12pm). Net of the coupon effect, therefore, the Italian Stock Exchange reacted better than Frankfurt, London and Paris. Even the banking sector, the hardest hit in the early stages, recovered positions even if Intesa, on the first day of the capital increase, remains in negative territory. (ub)
