The specter of the No deal becomes more real by the hour after the vote of British Parliament that rejects the Brexit deal contracted between the UK and the EU e stipulated with Brussels by Theresa May.
The hypothesis of the rejection, which only yesterday was defined as a "catastrophe" from Downing Streetis a certainty. Precisely for this reason, not only the United Kingdom, but also the other EU countries are taking the right countermeasures. The goal is clear: prepare for the worst. Among these countries there is also Italy, which is closely following Germany, France and the Netherlands in an attempt to launch measures aimed at buying time and planting the seeds of bilateral regulations on relations with the non-European United Kingdom.
Brexit: forecasts on the UK vote
Paradoxically, Theresa May's agreement managed to bring together both those who voted for the Remain that Brexiters hardliners who two years ago promoted the referendum on London's exit from the European Union and now feel betrayed by an agreement that is "too soft" for them. For the opposition, Labor led by Jeremy Corbyn voted against the agreement – with the exception of 4 MPs who announced their intention to say Yes – the Greens, the Liberals and the Scots of the SNP. However, the No also managed to win the vote of various deputies belonging to the majority, namely to Theresa May's Tories, but above all to the DUP, the Northern Irish nationalist right-wing party allied with May's government and yet strongly opposed to the backstop on Northern Ireland.
May, after the massacre, which saw her defeated by over 200 votes, risks leaving the scene if she doesn't gain confidence. Yesterday was one epochal defeat. In the last 100 years, only three times has a British government been beaten by more than 100 votes: it was 1924 and the UK was led by a Labour-inspired minority government.
The numbers of the No seem to be fundamental to understanding what will happen “after”. May risks becoming "a lame duck", subject to the impositions of Parliament, or to withdraw permanently from the British political scene.
Brexit: the Italian countermoves
Italy's plan B, to be implemented in the event of a "No deal" goes through a decree law that will be approved before March 29, 2019i.e. before the UK's exit from the European Union becomes official.
According to what was revealed by the Sun 24 Hours Minister Tria is reportedly working with Bankitalia, Consob, Ivass for insurance companies and Covip for pension funds on a set of rules aimed at protecting our country from financial turmoil resulting from the so-called hard Brexit.
Given the uniqueness of the scenario, it remains very difficult for everyone to predict what the real risks are and to launch the appropriate countermeasures. But one thing is certain: from one side of the Union to the other it is better not to be caught unprepared.
Considering also the economic slowdown already underway, the decree should provide for a bridge of 21 months during which, on the one hand, the Italian operations of intermediaries and investment firms based in the United Kingdom would be guaranteed, and on the other, that of UK operators who adhere to the Italian equity and bond markets.
Through this provision, Italy would not only implement the recommendations on the management of the transition period made in December by the EU Commission, but could slow down the separation mechanisms, protecting itself from financial and economic "shocks".
According to reports from the business newspaper directed by Fabio Tamburini, the decree would involve the activities of the 70 British banks operating in Italy, the 233 British payment institutions and the 100 electronic money issuers active in our country. Also involved: 58 insurance companies and 21 pension funds. "Bridge" rules will be established for derivatives, on which transitional rules will be launched aimed at maintaining the current status quo in view of the definition of definitive measures.
In this context it also fits the alarm raised by Confagricoltura, according to which “The unregulated withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU would have serious consequences for the agri-food sector. We risk a sharp slowdown in sales of "Made in Italy" products on the British market". Precisely to avoid the worst, in recent weeks, the European Commission has launched an emergency plan to deal with the eventuality of a "hard Brexit", with a series of measures which concern, among other things, customs and phytosanitary controls , but the risks are still high. The reason lies once again in the numbers: sales of "Made in Italy" agri-food products on the UK market are close to 3,5 billion euros a year. And products with designation of origin and quality account for 30 percent of the total value. Without rules and agreements aimed at safeguarding the sector, the danger is that of a real collapse.
But the consequences of the United Kingdom's abrupt farewell to the EU will not only concern finance. Not surprisingly, in recent days, the foreign ministry has ensured that both in the event of a soft and hard Brexit, which the 60 British citizens residing in Italy “they will be able to continue to be legal residents while maintaining the right to work”. A decision that made Italy the first EU country to have taken a decision on the matter.
As for the other side of the coin, the relative one to Italian citizens (and citizens of the entire European Union) residing in the United Kingdom, we will have to wait for the outcome of the vote. In the event of Parliament's Yes to the agreement, the rights of the 3 million Italian citizens residing in the UK will be protected by the pact. In the event of a No victory, the issue would become more thorny, also because the British government could decide to use this issue as a bargaining chip to try to gain new concessions.
What is certain is that January 15th will remain in the history of the United Kingdom and of the entire European Union.
(Last update: 10 am on 16 January)
