The countdown has begun. In a few hours, markets around the world will hear what Jerome Powell will say about the US economy: given a third 25 basis point rate cut, investors will focus on every detail that will indicate the US monetary trajectory for 2026, which will also see the changing of the guard at the Fed presidency. The moment is so delicate that no one wants to take risks in one direction or the other, and prices from Wall Street to Asia are in zero-point mode. global bond yields are rising, signaling concern that the cycles of rate cuts of interest from the United States to Australia may be concluded next year. In the meantime it is silver shines with its own light, setting a new record, at around 61 dollars an ounce.
Much more than just a rate cut for the Fed
Today's announcements by the Federal Reserve go far beyond a simple and virtually predictable rate cut. 25 basis points, il third in a row this year. Attention will also be paid to the last dotplot of the central bank, (the graph showing the anonymous forecasts of the FOMC members on future rates), to economic projections and to the comments of the President Jerome Powell. The volatility tied to the decision has been one of the hallmarks of stock trading over the past six weeks, stepping over even fears for a potential bubble of artificial intelligence and the impact of trade policies Trump. All this with at least two corollaries. On the one hand, the fact that the Fed's economic projections will unusually be presented without a full quarter of verified data due to the shutdown longest in history, leaving ample room for interpretation and volatility. On the other hand, the prospect of a Powell at the end of his term next May, with Kevin Hasset, A strong advocate of accommodative monetary policy, albeit Trump's favorite, in pole position. Yesterday, Hasset said he sees ample room to substantially lower rates, even more than a quarter-point cut.
Le expectations Expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 3,50 to 3,75 percent, have risen from 30 percent to 87 percent in the past three weeks, driven largely by recent support from the New York Fed president, John Williams. However, analysts expect that at least five of the 12 voting members of the FOMC will have differing opinions, reinforcing the idea in the markets that thethe Fed is becoming more political. Looking ahead, the markets now see two more cuts next year.
- latest macroeconomic data, still delayed compared to the collection period, they are therefore interpreted in light of 2026: the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics released yesterday showed a significant increase in jobs vacant but also a significant increase in layoffs. As regards the'inflation Instead, Donald's personal statistics office Trump He is adamant in denying that there is, or is, a factor the Federal Reserve should consider. Thanks to his presidency, prices are falling "enormously." During a rally in Pennsylvania to promote his economic policy, the American president accused the Democratic opposition of promoting a "farce" when they denounced the still-high cost of living. The Fed's two previous cuts this year were aimed at addressing the weakening of employment conditions, including an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4,5%.
Wall Street moves little, but JP Morgan's selling weighs on its stocks.
On Wall Street, the three main indices moved little, awaiting the Fed, albeit in opposite directions. Dow Jones closed down 0,38%, Nasdaq the index rose by 0,13% S & P 500 closed down 0,09%, weighed down by JPMorgan which announced huge spending for 2026. The index Russell 2000 Small-cap stocks hit an all-time intraday high yesterday, before paring gains to close up 0,2%.
After rising nearly 1%, thebanking index The S&P 500 weakened, closing down 2% after Marianne Lake, head of consumer and community banking at JPMorgan Chase, said the bank expects expenses to rise to about $105 billion in 2026. JPMorgan shares have closed down 4,7%, recording the largest daily percentage drop since April 4.
Even the negotiations on technology stocks were unstable yesterday. US President Donald Trump said he would allow Nvidia AI chip leader, to ship its second-most powerful AI chips, H200 processors, to China, paying a 25% commission on such exports. However, an article in the Financial Times said Beijing is prepared to restrict access to those chips, while Chinese hardliners in Washington have harshly criticized the Trump administration for its decision. Nvidia shares closed down 0,3% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0,04%. Investor interest in AI infrastructure spending is likely to focus on expected results from Oracle and Broadcom later this week.
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed. Meesho's IPO in India shines.
Asian stock markets recorded mixed but still modest performances, also in anticipation of the Fed. The index Tokyo Nikkei is at -0,5%. Consolidate positions there yen After three days of losses against the dollar, the dollar-yen cross is at 156,6.
In China the reappearsinflation, dampening expectations of lower interest rates, while the consumption are still weak, which pushes towards deflation, in a situation marked by the chronic crisis in the real estate sector and unemployment, especially among young people. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong is at -0,4%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is at -0,8%. The Taipei Taiex is at +0,5%. Chinese stocks have lost momentum after an excellent performance at the start of the year, dragged down by valuation concerns, weak economic data and the lack of signs of stimulus from government leaders.
La Seoul Stock Exchange is slightly down, with the Kospi index at -0,2%. India, the BSE Sensex index in Mumbai is at +0,3%. meesho, an Indian e-commerce platform, debuts today with a 50% increase on the Indian stock market, a price move that confirms growing investor interest in technology startups. The stock is trading at 172 rupees, giving the company a market valuation of 758 billion rupees ($8,4 billion).
Rising yields supported the dollar, further boosted by a broad wave of yen selling overnight, which appeared to be led by funds following momentum.euro rose to 182,12 yen, after hitting an all-time high of 182,64 overnight. GBP It hit a record high of 208,95 yen, the highest level since mid-2008.
L'silver extended its rise after surpassing $60 an ounce for the first time yesterday, with momentum coming from tight supply and bets on a fall in Fed rates. Today the white metal rose as much as 1,3%, reaching record level of 61,4797 dollars an ounce.
European stock markets saw a break-even opening. At Piazza Affari, eyes were on
European stock markets are expected to open at par. The Eurostoxx 50 index is down 0,1%.
BuzziMorgan Stanley cuts its rating from Overweight to Equal Weight, with a target of 44 euros.
CampariThe parent company Lagfin is preparing to settle its dispute with the Italian tax authorities with a €400 million compensation, it writes. ReutersCampari is not involved.
Classic Ferrari for saleOddo cuts his rating from Outperform to Neutral, with a target of €430 to €340.
LeonardoJPMorgan raises its target from 58 to 63 euros. Germany plans to produce upgraded Taurus missiles by 2029.
SnamBernstein cuts its rating from Outperform to Market Perform, with a target of €5,80.
