Incredible. The most optimistic note comes from Germany. “European equities are relatively cheap,” writes Maximilian Uleer, head of research at Deutsche Bank. Therefore we expect a 5% increase”. In support of the thesis, the analyst cites, among other things, the growth in profits of large companies that are already taking advantage of China's recovery. First of all the luxury flagship Lvmh, but also Novo Nordisk, Volvo and Basf, to mention the quarterly reports already released.
Stock Exchanges Asia April 28: Chinese GDP up, +2% expected for the quarter
- The analyst's opinion (“the S&P index – he adds – is 30% more expensive than the Eurostoxx” -) serves to introduce the first hot topic of the week: the data of the Chinese GDP of the first quarter of 2023: the Bloomberg consensus expects an acceleration to +4%, from +2,9% a year ago. On a sequential basis, net of the seasonal component, the increase should be 2%. Other observers, such as Citi, are even more positive.
- Tomorrow's data coincides with the opening of Shanghai Auto Show, considered the most important appointment of the year for the four-wheel industry, another sign that the second largest economy on the planet is back on the move
- Le Stock Exchanges of China stand out this morning in Asia Pacific. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +0,9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,6%.
- In anticipation of the strong acceleration of the economic cycle, the monetary authorities reduce stimuli. Data reported tonight by Bloomberg show that the central bank injected only twenty billion yuan in April, the lowest amount of liquidity since November. According to Reuters, interventions in support of the yuan were also down.
- The stock exchanges of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are around parity. An attack on the Japanese premier Kishida was thwarted in extremis. He opened India's BSE Sensex down 1%.
Opening in no particular order for the EU Stock Exchanges. Milan one step away from 2008, but turns downwards
Also for Barclays the driving force of China will be decisive in supporting the rally of the European markets. The first session of the week of the Old Continent stock exchanges opened slightly up, but Piazza Affari turned down (-0,40%).
Positive the balance of the last week. The Eurostoxx 50 index moved one point away from the absolute tops. The Cac 40 closed on an all-time high. The Frankfurt Dax has been hitting all-time highs since January 2022. The FTSEMIB finished the fourth positive week in a row, about one point off its 15-year highs.
Btp: rates towards an increase of 50 points but Lagarde soft
- The hawks continue to prevail at the ECB. The markets are convinced that the central bank, despite Italy's different opinion, will raise rates by 50 points at its next meeting in May. The two-year Bund rose 32 points last week, the biggest increase since last September.
- Search for Christine Lagarde, judging by the text he will read today in New York. “we expect inflation in the euro area to continue to fall” with the easing of price pressures and the effects on demand of a tighter monetary policy. He stated “With inflation too high for too long, the ECB decided in March to raise rates by 50 basis points, bringing the total increases since July 2022 to 350 basis points. The increases highlight our determination to ensure the return of inflation to the medium-term target of 2%”, concludes Lagarde.
- Reading the minutes of the last meeting in Frankfurt, which will be published on Thursday, is very important in this light. Spotlights also on the updates on inflation in Italy, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone and on the Zew, the German confidence index.
- Italian politics looks to the Economics and finance document and the first measures to be taken – between the employment decree and the cut in the tax wedge – with a view to narrowing down the public accounts
A shower of quarterly reports on Wall Street. The Beige Book is coming
Futures in parity a few hours after the opening of the US markets. Wall Street's Dow Jones closed down 0,4% on Friday, but the week instead recorded a positive balance, +1,2%.
At the center of attention are the quarterly accounts. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley rise to the fore. Pay attention also to the quarterly of Johnson & Johnson and Netflix.
Today Elon Musk's space adventure will take a decisive step. From the Boca Chica base in Texas, the 120-metre-high Starship spacecraft should take off with a load capacity towards the Moon of at least 100 tons, surpassing what had so far been the most powerful space 'lift', the Saturn V used for the Apollo missions of NASA on the Moon. The 33 Raptor engines will provide double the thrust. Parts are designed to be reused.
On the macro front to follow on Wednesday the Beige Book. At its next meeting on May 3, the Fed is expected to raise rates by a quarter of a point.
Il Treasury Notes the 3,51-year trades at a 3,43% yield, up from 4,28% on Friday. The BTP closed at XNUMX%.
The other price lists are also in good health. The index MSCI World it grew by +1,3% in five days, reaching its highest level since the beginning of February, +8,6% since the beginning of the year; the MSCI Emerging Markets index grew by +1,4% reaching its highest level since February 21st, +4,6% since the beginning of the year.
Dollar recovering, gold at 2004 level
Recovery continues dollar against the euro treated at 1,097.
Gold settling at $2.004 an ounce after Friday's sharp drop.
Petroleum WTI at $82,5 a barrel, unchanged.
Just under thirty thousand dollars, the bitcoin.
