The American markets gather courage as they wait for the quarterly results. Europe not yet. Thus begins the march towards next week's central bank meetings marked by the strengthening of the euro, up against the dollar for eight sessions in a row (today 1.125), confirming the feeling that the Fed will prove to be more dovish than the ECB. The new signs of slowing down from China, a major customer of the luxury industry, contribute to justifying the prudence.
Flat opening for Europe. Tremble the luxury
- Uncertainty is reflected in forecasts. Europe's stock exchanges are expected to open flat, EuroStoxx 50 futures unchanged.
- The Ftse Mib of Milan consolidated its positions on Monday, closing with a drop of 0,2%.
- It gets better but not too much'inflation to 6,4 from 7,6% thanks to the drop in bills. But the "shopping cart" remains above 10%.
- The German Dax is down -0,2%; corporate sentiment worsens, the opinion is gaining ground that the Bundesbank's estimate of a contraction of 0,3% for this year, published less than a month ago, is too optimistic.
- China's slowdown weighs on luxury stocks. The giant Lvmh loses 4%. It is worse at Richemont (Cartier) down 8% in Zurich. Moncler – 2,8%.
- 2,47-year German Bund at 4,14%. XNUMX-year BTP at XNUMX%.
Evergrande, an 81 billion dollar red
- The signs of crisis arriving from the Chinese economy are multiplying. The Hong Kong stock exchange, halted yesterday by the arrival of a hurricane in the area, reopened with a drop of more than 2%. CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges -0,3%. Taipei Taiex -0,4%-
- Today the brick and mortar crisis emerges in all its gravity with the publication of data from Evergrande, the giant that has been in crisis for a couple of years now without Beijing being able to deal with the emergency.
- the conglomerate presented the balance sheet data for 2021 and 2022: the cumulative loss is equal to 81 billion dollars. Meetings with creditors on debt restructuring will begin over the next few days: exposure to creditors is colossal, 2.440 trillion yuan.
Meanwhile, brokers cut their growth forecasts
Several economists have revised downwards their forecasts for the growth of the second largest economy on the planet. Among these, those of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup cut 2023 GDP growth to 5%, just below the indications of the Beijing authorities.
In the rest of Asia: The Japanese stock market is starting to close around parity. Seoul's Kospi fell by 0,4%. Slight increase in the BSE Sensex of Mumbai.
Wall Street pawing, Tesla and Microsoft in the running
The highlight of the day concerns the US quarterly. After Friday's brilliant start with JP Morgan's accounts, some optimism is gaining ground.
A Wall Street the three benchmark indices reached medium-term highs. Nasdaq +0,9% to 14.244 points, a value it hasn't seen since April 2022. S&P 500 +0,4%, the highest since April. Around forty S&P500 stocks hit their highest price in the last fifty-two weeks, some setting new records, including Booking.
But Goldman Sachs preaches caution
Goldman Sachs still doesn't believe the rally, both on Wall Street and around the world. “Rising valuations despite modest earnings growth, as well as a late-cycle setup with rising yields, suggest equities have moved into an optimistic phase,” the strategist team said. led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann.
Tesla, which will reveal the accounts tomorrow, gained 2,0% announced that it has built its first electric Cybertruck, after two years of delays.
Activision Blizzard was up 3,9% after that Microsoft announced that it has signed a deal to keep “Call of Duty” on PlayStation after the acquisition. A US appeals court also rejected on Friday the Federal Trade Commission's request to suspend Microsoft's $69 billion purchase.
Industrial production and retail sales data are out today.
Weak oil, HSBC cuts Eni to Hold
Oil more or less on yesterday's values, WTI at 74,5 dollars a barrel. HSBC cuts this morning Eni to Hold from the previous Buy.
Changing of the guard in A2A. Unicredit cuts costs
- A2A On the occasion of the Board meeting on the six-monthly meeting scheduled for July 28, the current president Marco Patuano could resign, a move linked to his recent appointment at the top of the Spanish Cellnex, writes Il Sole 24 Ore. In pole position to succeed him would be Roberto Tasca, former councilor for the budget of the Municipality of Milan.
- Unicredit expects to cut a further 500 million euros in costs in an attempt to balance the higher than expected inflation, wrote the Bloomberg agency yesterday.
- Recordati The results of Novartis came out this morning: the Swiss pharmaceutical giant has raised its forecasts and announced a $15 billion buyback plan.
- Ivy The Competition and Market Authority launched an investigation into the utility after some reports were received from September 2022 complaining of the onerousness of the district heating service tariffs and the difficulties of disconnecting from the DH network and adopt a different heating system.
