The main event today will be the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates, which will almost certainly involve a 25 basis point cut. Post-decision statements from President Christine Lagarde will be even more important in providing clues about future monetary policy moves. Investors are holding their breath for developments in the tariff talks between Trump and his trading partners: a phone call between Washington and Beijing is expected today, while a senior Japanese diplomat and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are traveling to the U.S. today.
Wall Street in the balance as Washington and trading partners negotiate
Le US shares closed mixed yesterday, with the benchmark S&P 500 index unchanged, the Nasdaq Composite, a technology index slightly up (+0,32%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down (-0,22%), as investors struggled to analyze the US economic data which with their weakness are highlighting that the economic weight of President Donald Trump's trade policies is starting to be felt. The S&P 500's initial gains ran out towards the close and trading volume was relatively light.
Il service sector contracted in May for the first time in nearly a year, as businesses paid input prices higher, to remember that the economy is still at risk of slowdown in growth e rising inflation. ADP's National Employment Report showed that in May, private employers U.S. workers have hired the fewest workers in more than two years. Investors are waiting Friday's key US jobs data for further insights into how trade uncertainty is impacting the U.S. labor market. The only silver lining to the economic weakness could be a rate easing by the Fed: Swap dealers are now pricing in increased odds of two quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, in October and December, and the chance of a September move has risen to more than 90% from around 82%.
Washington brought the tariffs on steel and aluminum imported at 50%, hitting Canada and Mexico in particular, and yesterday was the deadline to submit “best offers” to avoid further punitive import taxes taking effect in early July. Investors are now focusing on negotiations between Washington and trading partners Japan which sent its chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa to the United States again today in search of an agreement. Even the new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, will travel to Washington for a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office, and there is also anticipation for talks between Trump and the leader Chinese Xi Jinping: The long-awaited phone call between the two could take place in the next few hours, White House sources told CNN.
Last month ended with the biggest monthly gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since November 2023, as Trump's tough trade stance softened and financial reports were upbeat. The S&P 500 remains more than 2% below its all-time highs in February.
Barclays joined a number of brokerage firms in raising its year-end price target for the S&P 500 Index, citing easing trade uncertainty and expectations for normalized earnings growth in 2026. Of note Tesla which fell 3,5% yesterday as the electric vehicle maker's sales fell for the fifth straight month in major European markets.
Asia little changed as Japanese government bond auctions weak
Le Asian stocks have seen modest moves as investors want to avoid taking strong positions ahead of tomorrow's key US jobs data. Japanese stocks they extended the decline after the demand at the auction of 30-year government bonds was below average and the weakest since 2023, increasing pressure on the government to adjust issuance. This comes after disappointing demand for 20- and 40-year notes late last month highlighted investor concerns about a lack of buyers for longer maturities. The yield on US Treasury Securities The 10-year rose 2 basis points. Japan's Nikkei stock index slipped 0,2%.
Real wages in Japan fell 1,8 percent in April from a year earlier, marking the fourth straight month of decline, according to preliminary data released Thursday by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The decline reflects continued inflationary pressure outpacing wage growth, eroding workers’ purchasing power. Average monthly cash income per employee rose 2,3 percent year-on-year to 302.453 yen (about 2.115,7 U.S. dollars), while basic compensation (expected earnings) rose 2,2 percent. Consumer prices used to calculate real wages (excluding imputed rents for owner-occupied housing) rose 4,1 percent, outpacing nominal wage growth and driving real wages down. Rice prices rose 98,4 percent year-on-year, marking a record increase. Major alcoholic beverage companies also raised prices in April, pushing up the prices of beer by 4,6% and beer-like beverages by 5,6%.
In China, a private survey showed that activity in the service sector expanded at a faster pace in May, a sign that the consumer economy is stabilizing, while higher U.S. tariffs threaten export demand. The Hang Seng Index Hong Kong earns 0,4%. CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen on equality.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0,7%. South Korea's stock market was the best performer in the area, with the Kospi index up 1% to a new high since July. Indian stocks also rose, with the BSE Sensex index Mumbai, +0,5%. On par the S&P ASX 200 index Sidney.
Il dollar was little changed versus all its G10 peers in Asian trade. The dollar rose 0,1% against the yen, settling at 142,92. The euro remained unchanged at $1,1416, after a 0,4% gain in the previous session.
The pared down the previous day's gains, while the Petroleum fell after U.S. stockpiling and Saudi Arabia's July price cut for Asian oil buyers. Spot gold fell 0,1% to $3.372,7 an ounce. U.S. crude fell 0,2% to $62,75 a barrel.
European stock markets seen opening at parity. At Piazza Affari eyes on Eni, Unicredit and Leonardo
European stock markets should start the session around parity, EuroStoxx 50 index futures -0,1%. In Germany, industrial orders rose by 0,6% in April, +4,8% the trend figure.
Generali Bank, Mediobanca. The members of the consultation pact expressed “general appreciation” regarding the purchase offer for Banca Generali in yesterday's meeting called in view of the meeting on June 16. Over 80% of the capital will be present at the Mediobanca meeting, writes La Repubblica, adding that Delfin and Benetton will decide at the last minute how to vote. According to La Stampa, Delfin could abstain.
Leonardo is set to cash in on a new contract from the Indonesian Defense Ministry, writes the Sun 24 Hours specifying that at stake, according to what was declared yesterday by the head of the defense equipment center of the ministry Yusran Lubis, there is a 240 million dollar order for the acquisition of the six Leonardo AW189 helicopters. The agreement should be signed next week on the sidelines of the Indo Defense Expo & Forum.
Fincantieri. A defense spending commitment of 5 percent of GDP will be reached across the entire NATO alliance, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters in Brussels ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers, adding that being an alliance requires combat readiness, but that this must happen by the Hague summit later this month.
Pirelli. The Italian government is resisting calls by Executive Vice President Marco Tronchetti Provera to tighten restrictions on its Chinese partner Sinochem, sources familiar with the matter said.
StM. The company expects 5.000 employees to leave the company over the next three years, including the 2.800 job cuts announced earlier this year, CEO Jean-Marc Chery said. Business Minister Adolfo Urso denied press reports of a split into two companies.
President Donald Trump’s administration is renegotiating some of former President Joe Biden’s grants to semiconductor companies, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said at a hearing late Tuesday, hinting that some awards could be eliminated. Some of the Biden-era grants “seemed overly generous, and we were able to renegotiate them,” Lutnick told lawmakers on the Senate Appropriations Committee, adding that the goal was to benefit American taxpayers.
Unicredit announced that it has withdrawn its request to the TAR to suspend the 'golden power' regulation concerning the offer on Banco in order to facilitate the discussion with the government. UniCredit has asked the TAR to annul the letter received on May 30 from the MEF that provided clarifications on the 'golden power' requirements, Banco BPM CEO Giuseppe Castagna said yesterday. The move has irritated the Treasury, according to a source close to the situation. According to another source, UniCredit added the MEF letter to the documents submitted to the TAR simply as a procedural formality.
Eni Fullness has launched a binding purchase proposal on 100% of Acea Energia
