Signature vintage finale for i financial markets most euphoric in recent decades: 2023 will in fact score at these levels the best year from 1997.
A rally linked torate trend of markets that largely preceded the managers' choices, often caught off guard. Hence an end-of-year picture that offers surprises and perhaps opportunities to be exploited late. This time, the errors are partly justified: the predictions went in vain because very few grasped the explosive power ofIntelligence Artificial which promises to profoundly upset the choices and balances of the financial world in the future too.
The rising finish of the Nasdaq 100 offers an eloquent image of the race triggered by the success of Nvidia, the symbolic stock of the "revolution" triggered by Chat Gpt which closed the year with a progress of 238%. For the Times Square list, the ninth positive week in a row is thus completed, an event that has not occurred since 2019, and which allows for the best result since 2003 with a gain of +44,30% thanks to the driving force of sectors somehow linked to Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity.
Many double-digit annual performances: behind Nvidia they stand out Meta + 197% AMD +125% ahead of Tesla+ 112%.
Successes and disappointments of 2023
To give a measure of the performance of Microsoft, a note from Bloomberg is enough: Steve Ballmer, former deputy of Bill Gates, this month earned a billion dollars without doing anything thanks to the increase in value of his share package.
End of year gift also for Intel which accelerates to the highest levels since April 2022. The chip giant, with around 215 billion market cap on Wall Street, has reached an agreement with the Israeli government for a new factory in Kiryat Gat, near Gaza.
But to remember that nothing is more ephemeral than the glory guaranteed by the markets, it is enough to mention the misfortune of some protagonist stocks of the season in the fight against Covid. Moderncloses the year at -44%. Heavy bill also for Illumina –30%.
The triumph of the debt market
The performance of the world market is impressive debt, the real surprise of the year. Bonds, Bunds and BTPs recorded the largest gains in their history, thanks to growing investor bets that central banks around the world will cut rates next year.
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index grew by almost +10% between November and December.
This is the largest increase ever recorded since the start of the historical series which dates back to 1990.
“What we're seeing now is a 'Bond Carnival,'” said Hideo Shimomura of Fivestar Asset Management.
More closely, our 2012-year BTP is preparing to complete its best quarter since the spring of XNUMX.
From the 4,80% average yield valid on October 3,50st, it has now reached 130% for a total of -XNUMX basis points in three months.
Winners and losers in emerging markets
The list of winners and losers in emerging markets is as long as usual. The great season of chips is confirmed by the good results of South Korea, at most for five months. Semiconductor production increased by +42,4% compared to the previous year, increasing the country's industrial production, thanks to the surge in chip production.
In Asia, among the main stock markets, the best performance of 2023 belongs to Nikkei 225 Japanese, with a gain of +28% in local currency (+15% in euro), is the strongest annual performance in the last ten years.
The stock market of Taiwan remained close behind with an increase of +26,6% during the year.
The Indian Nifty it is the third best market with an increase of +20% in 2023.
The index CSI300 di Shanghai-Shenzhen it is instead the Asian stock market with the worst performance this year, with a drop of -17% (in euro), followed by the index Hang Seng of Hong Kong, which recorded a decline of -16%.
India and Brazil are competing for the title of Stock Exchange of the Year
The Ibovespa index of Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is set to close 2023 at historic highs and confirms itself among the best in the world in 2023 with growth from January 24,20st to today of approximately +XNUMX% (in euros).
Brazil's Central Bank cut key interest rates by half a percentage point last week and anticipated further cuts of the same size at its next annual meetings, as inflation eases back within the target range set from the institute and the economy's prospects improve. Rates fell two percentage points compared to August.
Also in great shape BSE sensex di Mumbai which updated the historical record for the fourth time in the last five sessions. The performance of the fifth consecutive week of push is +2,30% in local currency.
The central bank confirmed the reference rates at 6,5%, a widely awaited decision. The institute said tight policy had helped reduce inflation over the past year, but warned that high food prices could still present upside risks to inflation.
The governor, Shaktikanta Das, noted that inflation has declined steadily amid tight monetary policy and warned that the bank continues to remain alert to any potential increase.
“Monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure a lasting alignment of overall inflation to the target rate of 4%, while supporting growth” clarified Das who forecasts inflation of 2024% for 5,4.
China disappoints the markets in 2023, but 2024 opens with new prospects
La China, we have seen, has disappointed the managers again. The Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is the worst-performing Asian stock market this year, down -17% (in euros), followed by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which fell by -16%.
But 2024 could finally bring positive news for the Asian giant. What gives hope is the push coming from the car industry, now launched to conquer the markets. He will be leading the race Byd (which stands for Buy your dream) plans to build its first European car factory in the city of Szeged in Hungary. The plant will produce electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles for the European market and create thousands of jobs. The plant will likely have a capacity of around 200.000 cars per year, with BYD indicating a gradual increase.
BYD aims to have a 10% market share in Europe by the end of the decade (around 1,5-1,8 million cars), while in November it sold just over 13.000 cars in Europe.
The recovery of Bitcoin
It was the year of the recovery of Bitcoin consolidates in the area of the highest since April 2022, for an annual performance of +164%, in strong recovery from the -65% lost last year.
Among the protagonists of the crypto world listed on Wall Street, yesterday it stood out BitDigital +18%: The US-based “bitcoin miner” plans to double its operational mining fleet to around 6,0 ether per second in 2024.
The market is already expecting the SEC's green light for the listing of Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street in January and in this scenario, the shares of Bitcoin miners are significantly outperforming the largest digital currency, recording stellar gains in 2023: Riot Platforms +450 . The EuroStoxx50 has grown by +19% so far in 2023 and is moving at the highest levels of the last sixteen years.
Milan at the Top: Leonardo and Unicredit superstars
Milano it is placed at the first place in Europe with a +28% in 2023, net of the dividend, and fluctuates at a 15-year high. Leonardo e Unicredit are the stars of this 2023 with a gain of +85% and +83% respectively, which places the two stocks in fourth and fifth place in the Stoxx 600 index. Solo Be Semiconductor +145%, ASM +103%, Hochtief + 91% did better.
It was the best year since 1998, beating, albeit very slightly, the +28,30% recorded in 2019. The index, moreover, is moving at a 15-year high and recording the best performance within the euro zone. beating, albeit very slightly, the +28,30% recorded in 2019.
The EuroStoxx50 has grown by +19% so far in 2023 and is moving at the highest levels of the last sixteen years.
The Dax of Frankfurt it rose by +20% in 2023 and marked its historical record last December 14th at 17.003 points.
Our Ftse Eb it ranks first in Europe with +28% in 2023, net of the dividend, and is hovering at a 15-year high.
But there are many lists like that of Milan that gravitate towards the area of the multi-year/historical tops thanks to the change of pace of the central banks, especially the Fed, in terms of rates. But who knows how long this honeymoon will last in the shadow of wars and threats of recession still present.
