Le European stock exchanges proceed in scattered order, with investors trying to navigate the falling Treasury yields, the new geopolitical tensions and the unknown of the PetroleumThe surprise move by the US bond market is making its impact felt. US Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, has decided to at least double its Treasury buybacks to support liquidity, especially at longer maturities. This decision came after the sharp rise in the yield on the 30-year US bond, which in recent days reached its highest level in nearly 20 years.
The new standoff between Washington and Tehran is also keeping tensions high on the markets. The American president Donald Trump announced an “economic D-Day” for Iran, promising to isolate the country "at an unprecedented level." Caution thus prevails on the stock markets: Frankfurt loses 0,39%, London 0,17% and Paris 0,11%, while Madrid salt of 0,11% and Amsterdam remains just above par. What stands out instead Milan, with the Ftse Mib up 0,41% to 52.834,28 points, driven mainly by banks.
Treasury yields fall after 30-year peak
Il 30-year Treasury yieldAfter reaching 5,33%, its highest level since 2007, the U.S. Treasury fell to 5,19%. The 10-year bond also declined, falling to around 4,63%. The U.S. Treasury's move is aimed at supporting demand and liquidity in the longer-dated securities market, at a time when rising debt supply and interest rate prospects are fueling volatility.
Il Tesoro has foreseen operations of buyback of at least 4 billion dollars each, This is double the previous $2 billion, between September 9th and November 4th. The interventions will focus in particular on maturities between 10 and 20 years and between 20 and 30 years. The burden of the federal debt, which has now exceeded $40 trillion, remains in the background.
The bond market continues to Eurozone government bond yields fall, following the movement started in the United States after the US Treasury's announcement on Treasury buybacks. The yield on the 10-year BTP, maturing July 1, 2036, fell to 4,04%, from 4,06% at the previous close and after having touched 4,08% at the beginning of the week. spread However, the spread between BTPs and Bunds has risen to 81 basis points, slightly up from 80 points the day before.
Fed, rates and inflation: markets look ahead to September
Also in the spotlight are the next moves of the Federal Reserve. The minutes The latest meeting confirmed concerns about inflation: the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates between 3,5% and 3,75%, while several members indicated the possibility of a hike if inflation fails to approach the 2% target.
For now, however, the market continues to bet on caution. According to CME FedWatch calculations, the probability of a September rate hold is currently 69%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike stands at 31%.
In the afternoon, attention will shift to the United States, with the weekly unemployment claims, the August Philadelphia Fed index, and the July leading index. These data could offer further clues about the state of the American economy and, more importantly, the Fed's next moves.
Asian stocks rebound, with the Kospi up nearly 6%.
Strong rebound for the Asian bags after the sharp sell-off on the eve of the meeting, supported by the US Treasury's move on Treasuries and the recovery of technology stocks. The rise was led by Alone, with the Kospi up almost 6%, after the plunge of over 5% in the previous session, when the so-called sidecar, the temporary suspension of programmatic selling, had also been triggered.
The South Korean stock market was mainly boosted by semiconductors. Sk Hynix jumped more than 10% after announcing a share buyback and cancellation program worth 40.000 trillion won, equivalent to approximately $28,6 billion and 3,3% of the capital. The company also stated its goal of returning at least 50% of its cumulative free cash flow to shareholders by 2027. Shares also rose sharply. Samsung Electronics, buoyed by rumors of a possible shareholder compensation plan exceeding 100.000 trillion won.
Up too Tokyo, with the Nikkei at +1,5% and the Topix at +1,2%. Car stocks are doing well, with Honda up around 4,7% and Toyota up more than 3%, supported by the prospects of a trade agreement between the United States and Canada which could reduce the costs from 25% to 15% duties on cars produced in Canada.
The Chinese session was more contrasting: Shanghai e Shenzhen closed essentially unchanged, while Hong Kong gained about 1,3%, with technology stocks recovering. Australia, instead, attention was drawn to the labor market data, with unemployment rising to 4,5% in July from 4,4% in June and employment falling by 16.
Milan is on the up: focus on the banking game
At Piazza Affari, the FTSE MIB rose 0,39% to 52.821,69 points, in a still cautious European session. Banking stocks were the main drivers of the rise, with Unicredit up 1,15% and Intesa Sanpaolo up 0,93%. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena also performed well, gaining 0,83%, while Mediobanca advanced 0,67%.
Banking risk remains the focus of today's discussion. The MPS board of directors is called to evaluate possible moves to counter Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid. On the table is CEO Luigi Lovaglio's plan, which could include deals on Banco BPM and Banca Generali, as well as a possible supercoupon for MPS shareholders.
Tim also saw a 0,34% gain, while Poste Italiane rose 0,59%. As of August 19, 1.844.475 requests had been submitted in the public tender offer launched by Poste Italiane, bringing the total to 37.217.111, equal to 2,1811% of the shares eligible for the offer. The transaction, which began on July 20, will close on September 11.
Among the best performing stocks on the list are Terna (+1,03%), Italgas (+0,90%), Hera (+0,83%), Snam (+0,83%), Azimut (+0,79%), and Ferrari (+0,79%). Stellantis also performed well (+0,32%), buoyed by the prospect of a deal between the United States and Canada on auto tariffs.
Amplifon, on the other hand, had a difficult day, losing 4,67% and becoming the worst performing stock on the FTSE MIB. Preliminary data from GN Store Nord on the Hearing business also weighed heavily. Citi, however, confirmed its buy rating and a target price of €16,50, believing that GN's results will not change Amplifon's 2026 estimates for now. Avio (-1,68%), Unipol (-1,48%), Leonardo (-1,09%), and Prysmian (-0,85%) also fell.
Among the stocks under watch is Eni (+0,38%), after Berenberg raised its price target from 22 to 25,50 euros, confirming its hold rating. The broker highlighted the stock's strong gain over the past year, nearly 60%, and raised its earnings per share estimates by 6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027.
Dollar hits three-month low as gold takes a breather
On the currency market the dollar falls to three-month lows, penalized by moves by the US Treasury.euro The dollar exchange rate is trading at $1,1667, up from $1,1659 at the previous close. The dollar/yen exchange rate is at 158,51, up from 159,50, while the euro is trading at 185,08 yen, up from 184,79 the day before.
After the rally of the previous session, the is instead declining. The precious metal, which had exceeded 4.500 dollars an ounce during the night, retreated by 0,6% to 4.493 dollars. bitcoin trades at $69.560, down 0,2%.
On the energy front, attention remains high on tensions between the United States and IranBrent crude rises above $93 a barrel, while WTI is above $85. Trump's new threats support prices: according to Kepler, over 80% of Iranian seaborne oil exports are headed to China, a factor that makes Washington's potential economic crackdown on Tehran particularly delicate. The price remains virtually stable. gas, with the contract on the Amsterdam TTF at 63,4 euros per megawatt hour (+0,1%).
