An anniversary as important as it is ignored; On December 23, the Federal Reserve celebrated its 110th anniversary. The event coincided with an extraordinary rally on the Santa Claus stock market justified by the prediction of the next drop in rates. To support trust in next steps by the Fed it was also the slowdown in the PCE index (only +3,2% on an annual basis) which supported expectations of a soft slowdown in inflation: Wall Street thus closed on the rise for the eighth week in a row, driven by the Nasdaq + 1,21%.
Optimists are rampant on Wall Street. Mister Lee's revenge
But now? It goes wild as usual race between optimists and skeptics. Among the former, writes the New York Times, it stands out Tommy Lee, already responsible for JP Morgan's equity research for more than a decade, for a year at the helm of his own company, Fundstrat, capable of predicting the excellent results of Wall Street in 2023.
The exact opposite of what most analysts have done who have bet on the coming recession: in the last 3 months, managers have reduced their presence in equity funds by 70 billion dollars: But now? "I continue to see no symptoms of recession” he insists Lee vencouraged by the positive forecasts of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Exactly opposite to of the caution preached by JP Morgan and other brokers, convinced that the recession is far from averted.
Never numbers are all on the side of Taurus starting with the S&P index less than half a point from the all-time high. Nasdaq and Dow Jones also closed the Boxing Day session higher.
Control of Manchester United changes hands
They went to pre-Christmas sales are booming as well as consumption (+7.8% spending in restaurants). The Treasury is also laughing: the last auction of T bonds on Christmas Eve saw a rush to buy by central banks determined to bring forward purchases before the probable rate cuts in 2024.
There was no shortage of the latest twist on the stock market. The billionaire Jim Ratcliffe bought 25% of Manchester United.
Toyota and gaming are booming
They fly on the wave of Wall Street i Asian lists: Tokyo +1%. The index is supported by the record sales of Toyota: +11% in November for 927 thousand cars. The December meeting of Bank of Japan showed that central bank members believe monetary policy can remain extremely accommodative for the time being.
- Chinese indices The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose about 0,2% each, remaining near yearly lows as sentiment towards the country showed little sign of improvement. Tonight's data showed that i Chinese industrial profits have improved in November, but are still down -4,4% year to date.
A Hong Kong, the rebound in video game stocks - in particular heavyweight Tencent Holdings - allows the Hang Seng index to gain 1,5%.
THEAustralian index ASX 200 rises by 1,1%, reaching its highest level since April 2022.
European futures are also rising
The prospect of falling rates is driving the stock markets. The stock exchanges of Europe are projected onto an opening positive. Futures on the EuroStoxx50 +0,4%. Frankfurt Dax +04%.
Il FtseMib of Milan starts again at 30.353 points, +28% from the beginning of 2023. The ten-year BTP trades at 3,52%.
Today is Giorgetti Day
Positive signals also came from the consumer and business confidence indices in Italy which recorded a clear increase, reaching their highest levels since last summer. According to data released by Istat, the indicator relating to consumers rises to 106,7 from 103,6 in November.
But attention is focused on the resumption of very high-tension political activity. The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti is expected today in the Budget Committee to participate in the work on the examination of the maneuver. The opposition is preparing to press him on the effects of the Stability Pact and the failure to ratify the ESM they could have on the Budget. Giorgetti should also lift the reservation on the postponement of the deadline for accessing the Super bonus.
The examination of the maneuver resumes in the Budget Committee of the House. The vote in the chamber is expected on Friday. The extension of tax wedge cut for 2024 and the Irpef which goes from 4 to 3 rates are the most important measures of the Budget Law as approved by the Senate: they alone absorb half of the 28 billion euros allocated.
Bfor exit agreement, Raiway/EI Towers merger tests
BPER Banca has signed an agreement with the trade unions for 1.000 voluntary exits in exchange for 500 new hires and the stabilization of 200 temporary positions in relation to the rationalization of the network and the launch of a new organizational model, communicate the bank and the trade unions.
Generali: at the end of the month the offers will be examined for the 51% share of Generali China Insurance held by China National Petroleum Corporation for which the same Trieste-based company is also in the running, writes Milano Finanza on Saturday.
RaiWay: A group of shareholder funds asked the company for updates on the status of its proposed merger with rival EI Towers during a meeting with top management on Thursday. Two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.
TIM: Fondazione Roma will invest 20 million in the F2i fund for TIM's fixed network alongside KKR and the Treasury, Milano Finanza writes on Saturday.
