Il debt Italian still goes up in February. And it still records a record, negative of course. But the Meloni government it does not intend to change the trend, but rather plans to persevere in this "Race towards the abyss" which will impact above all on the next generations.
In February the increase was 21,6 billion euros compared to the previous month, reaching 2.772 billion, according to the note "Public finance, borrowing requirement and debt" published today by Bank of Italy.
The increase, they specify at Palazzo Koch, is due on the one hand to requirements, for 12,9 billion, on the other hand to the growth of Treasury liquidity (8,6 billion, to 43,3). In addition, the overall effect of spreads and premiums on issue and redemption, the revaluation of inflation-indexed securities and the change in exchange rates (0,1 billion) contributed.
The increase in debt of those 21,6 billion comes all from central administrations, while the liabilities of local administrations and that of social security institutions remained practically unchanged.
The Meloni government plans to raise the debt by another 8 billion
But the upward trend in debt is set to rise further, according to i Meloni Government projects, which plans to increase the debt by approx 8 billion of Euro between this year and next to finance support measures focused on cutting the tax wedge in favor of employees.
In fact, in the Economic and Financial Document, via XX Settembre confirmed the deficit targets of 4,5% of GDP this year and 3,7% in 2024. However, Italy's deficit should be 4,4 % in 2023 and 3,5% next year, which implies a budgetary margin with unchanged targets of €3,4 billion this year and €4,5 billion in 2024.
Italian public debt, proportionally the highest in the euro area after that of Greece, is forecast, again in the Def at 142,1% of GDP this year, and should fall to 141,4% in 2024, to 140,9 % in 2025 and 140,4% in 2026. The deficit/GDP ratio, after 3,7% in 2024, should return within the 3% limit set by the European Union in 2025, to then drop to 2,5% % the next year.
On the occasion of the Notification of public finance data sent to the European Commission last March 31, were also revised data for previous years. Compared to the data released on 15 March, debt has been revised upwards by 0,3 billion in 2019, 0,6 in 2020, 1,5 in 2021 and downwards by 5,5 in 2022. The revisions reflect, in addition to the ordinary updating of sources, the expansion of the perimeter of the public administrations defined by Istat in agreement with Eurostat.
Tax revenues down 3% in February
In February, again according to the Bank of Italy dossier, the tax revenue accounted for in the state budget amounted to 34,9 billion, in 3% decrease (1,1 billion) compared to the same month of 2022. If instead we look at the first two months of the year, tax revenues amounted to 79,1 billion, up by 4,5% (3,4 billion) compared to the same period last year.
At the end of February the quota of debt held by the Bank of Italy was 26,2% (unchanged compared to the previous month), while that held by non-residents was 26,5% in January (the last month for which this figure is available). Finally, the average residual life of the debt remained stable compared to January, at 7,7 years.
The share of BTPs in the hands of foreign investors is still decreasing
In January, the portfolio value of Italian government bonds held by foreign entities it shrunk again, touching the level lowest since September 2012, reports the Reuters agency. In fact, the value in January was equal to 614,940 billion euros from 621,563 billion in December. Based on Reuters calculations on Via Nazionale data, the share held by non-residents out of the total in circulation was 26,94% from 27,26% in December. The data include government bonds held by domestic investors through non-resident entities (such as portfolio management and funds) and those held directly by the Eurosystem (not through the Bank of Italy) and by central banks of other countries.
