The Italian economy continues to grow at a very modest pace, marked by a still unsatisfactory contribution from domestic demand. Istat's monthly note on economic performance certifies that in the first quarter of 2016, the Italian GDP grew by 0,3%; a disappointing result if compared to that of Germany (+0,7%), France (+0,6%) and Spain (+0,8%), i.e. the Eurozone countries comparable to ours in terms of size. In addition, in the month of May there was a worsening of business expectations on the trend of the economy and that the same trend concerned the climate of consumer confidence.
Given the findings, it certainly cannot be said that the recessionary phase has been overcome, as was incautiously declared by many observers already last year. The specter of unemployment and the erosion of savings accumulated in the past continue to weigh on the consumption and spending decisions of Italian families. The uncertainty on the prospects for demand and on the direction of economic and fiscal policies weighs instead on the continuous postponements of company restructuring plans. The flow of bank credit to businesses, which still constitutes the lifeblood of our economy, is still insufficient and far from pre-crisis levels. This trend is primarily affected by the general worsening of customers' creditworthiness, but also by the tightening of prudential constraints Basel 3, which have imposed substantial increases in capital endowments for the same volume of loans.
Despite the context outlined, in which maximum stability of credit to the economy would be necessary to avoid ruinous pro-cyclical effects, in the last year the Basel Committee has promoted a review of the newly introduced regulatory framework, with the objective of making it even more stringent and penalizing for credit the capital requirements of banks. The promotion of these measures signals the persistence of a short-sighted and badly oriented perspective on the part of the European Regulators and it is necessary for the Central Authorities to shift their attention from prudential supervision to all possible interventions capable of stimulating growth as soon as possible; at least until the economy gets back on track.
Also because there is the risk of canceling the driving force exercised by the ECB on bank liquidity, with the consequence that, at least in Italy, the beneficial effects on our companies could last for a very limited time. On this assessment, moreover, there is full agreement on the part of the entire sector. The European Banking Federation (FBE) has already expressed the industry's concerns about the application of this new framework of measures to the heads of the EU institutions, asking, among other things, that the EU Commission take a very clear stance against the indications of the Basel Committee. The director general of the ABI and president of the executive committee of the FBE himself, John Sabatinirecently stated that the impact on the European economy, and in particular on the Italian one, of the generalized increase in capital requirements deriving from the possible application of the new measures will be very significant and that a continuous upward change in such requirements.
It is therefore our belief that the Italian representatives in the Community institutions intervene with the utmost resoluteness to prevent the adoption of these recessive measures, capable of further negative impacts on our already suffering economy.
