Even Apple raises the white flag in the face of "bottlenecks". Apple, according to Bloomberg, will cut the production of the iPhone 10 by 13 million units due to the shortage of chips. In short, the drop in supplies spares no one in the US as in Germany where the Zew index, which reflects the mood of the auto industry, plummets. Meanwhile, the ranks of those who fear that inflation is not a "temporary" phenomenon is growing, as the Fed and the ECB repeat.
IMF TO THE BANKERS: PAY VERY ATTENTION TO INFLATION
"Central bankers will have to be very, very, very careful" warns Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the IMF who is reviewing the planet's growth downwards. It is in this framework that tonight, immediately after the publication of the US inflation data, the quarterly campaign kicks off with JP Morgan's accounts. The moods of the eve are cautious. More than the results, however positive, the markets will look to the near future, marked by the increase in yields (Fed vice president Richard Clarida confirmed the tapering) and by the decline in profits, both due to the drop in deliveries and the cost increase. The uncertainty is reflected this morning on the Asian lists. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists gains 0,3%. Hong Kong closed, paralyzed by a typhoon. However, there is no news of payments for Evergrande bonds.
THE CHINESE TRADE BALANCE IMPROVES
The latest data on China's trade balance released tonight beat expectations. In September, exports rose by 28% year on year, accelerating from +26% in August: consensus +21%. Seoul's Kospi index stands out with an increase of more than 1%. South Korea's economy created 671.000 new jobs last month, the sharpest increase in seven years. In September there was a boom in new jobs in social services and in the area of people's health. The unemployment rate fell to 2,8% from the previous 3%.
RECORD SALES IN CHINA FOR TESLA
Wall Street futures weak after a subdued session. The S&P 500 fell 0,24%, the Nasdaq fell $0,14 and the Dow Jones fell 0,35%. The exception is Tesla +1,7% after setting the sales record in China. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is flat for the third consecutive day at 102,7. WTI oil marks a slight decline to 80,5 dollars a barrel. The benchmark Chinese coal contract is up 6%, for a record third consecutive session. The 1,58-year Treasury Note is little moved at 1,155% yield. Euro dollar at 0,2 (+XNUMX%).
EU, HISTORIC DEBUT OF GREEN BONDS: 135 BILLION REQUESTS
One hundred thirty-five billion euros. This is the amount of requests for the 15-year green bonds issued yesterday by Brussels, a total of 12 billion which represent the largest supply of green bonds in history. The securities sold like hot cakes: in less than an hour they were all assigned a yield of 0,45%, 8 points less than the reference rate (midswap), 31 points more than the Bund of similar duration. A taste of the 250 billion that the Commission is about to allocate to finance around a third of the Next Generation EU, the plan for the relaunch of the EU. At least 36 percent of the collection will have to be allocated to green objectives even if it has not yet been decided whether these may include investments in natural gas and nuclear power.
In addition to the funds raised directly by the Commission, the stock of ESG (socially sustainable) securities is set to rise to €400 billion if we add up the loans from Italy, France, Germany, Spain and Poland. In this context, the forecasts of Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the central bank, take a back seat: the ECB, he says, will probably not be able to meet its inflation objectives.
THE YIELD OF BTP AT 0,01%, AT THE TOP SINCE JUNE
The maxi-placement of green bonds had repercussions on the yields of government bonds in the Eurozone. German Bund fell to -0,094%, it is the lowest yield since last May. The 0,91-year BTP is at 101%, on a four-month high. The spread fell to 12 points. In the 0,477-month BOT auction, the yield remained substantially unchanged compared to the -3% of the last placement. Today appointment with the auction of 7, 30 and XNUMX-year BTPs with rates seen on the rise compared to the last auction.
MILAN AND MADRID IN POSITIVE SOIL
Thanks also to the data arriving from the Monetary Fund, the Milan Stock Exchange recovered the losses of the morning and achieved a positive performance: +0,23% to 25.990 points. Madrid is also on positive ground +0,47%.
IMF RAISES GROWTH FOR ITALY
The International Monetary Fund has once again raised its estimate of Italian GDP growth for 2021 and in the World Economic Outlook brought it to +5,8%, increasing the estimate previously released in July by 0,9 percentage points. The forecasts for 2022, however, remain unchanged compared to those of July (+4,2%), while for 2026 the estimate is for growth of 1%. Inflation in Italy will settle at 1,7% in 2021 and then rise to 1,8% in 2022 and fall to 1,4% in 2023. The debt/GDP ratio, equal to 155,8% last year, it will drop to 154,8% in 2021, 150,4% in 2022 and 146,5% in 2026. The deficit/GDP ratio is estimated at 10,2% in the current year and should then gradually decline to 4,7% in 2022 and 2,4% in 2026. The unemployment rate is increasing: up by 9,35% in 2020, to 10,3% in 2021 and 11,6% in 2022.
ZEW DIVE. BOTTLENECKS HOLD GERMANY BACK
The other markets of the Old Continent are in red: Frankfurt -0,36%, Paris -0,34%, Amsterdam -0,25%, London -0,23%. A wave of pessimism hit German operators. The Zew index dropped by 4,2 points in October, doing much worse than expected, due to the bottlenecks in the supply chains which weigh heavily on Europe's largest economy. "The economic outlook for the German economy has deteriorated significantly," says Achim Wambach, president of Zew. "The further decrease in the indicator is mainly due to the persistent problems on the supply chains of raw materials and intermediate products".
LVMH +20% IN THE QUARTER, DIOR AND VUITTON RUN
The results of Lvmh were released after the stock exchange was closed. In the third quarter, the luxury giant recorded an increase in results in the order of 20% in line with Barclays forecasts. The turnover was 15,51 billion. The best results were once again those of Dior and Louis Vuitton, up 24%.
PRYSMIAN +3,5% BROADBAND PARTNER IN THE UK
Runs in Piazza Affari Prysmian +3,55% to 30,6 euros. The company has extended its partnership with Openreach, the largest digital network management company in the UK, with a new three-year contract. The group will make its experience and innovation capacity available to support Openreach's "Full Fiber" plan for the construction of a broadband network, essential for the British Government to achieve the target of providing a Gigabit connection for the 85% of the country by 2025. Banca Akros analysts confirmed the buy rating with a target price of 35,5 euros.
BUFFERS PUSH DIASORIN, JP MORGAN ALZA SAIPEM
Also in the light Diasorin + 2,72% on the eve of the entry into force of the Green Pass. The positive trend in the oil sector continues: above all Saipem +2,41%: Jp Morgan raised its target price from 2,4 to 2,6 euros, confirming its neutral rating. Against the trend, Tenaris -1,61%. Weak Eni -0,3%.
SOUL PROMOTED, NEW DELFIN PURCHASES ON GENERALI
The banks moved little, but yesterday Leonardo Del Vecchi rounded up his stake in Generali. Assets under management are more lively: Anima rises +3,2%, after UBS's promotion from neutral to buy, with a target price from 4,5 to 5,3 euros. Banca Generali +1,15%, Fineco +1,63%) and Banca Mediolanum +1,32% are up.
AEFFE SUPERSTAR THANKS TO NEW ORDERS
Luxury on standby awaiting Lvmh results. Tod's loses one percentage point, Moncler -1,6%. Aeffe, on the other hand, takes off +8% after the results of the quarter: "after the indications of the management - reads a note from Intesa Sanpaolo - on the growing start of the order collection for the Spring/Summer 22 collections for all brands and strong confidence in the potential future development of Moschino, we have increased our forecasts for the period 2021-22 by an average of 4,4% on turnover and 14,3% on Ebitda”, writes Intesa Sanpaolo in a note. Flat Stellantis and Cnh Industrial, weak Exor -1,1%. Stm also falls -1,63%,
CHILEAN ORDER FOR ABERTIS (ATLANTIA)
Atlantia is down by 0,81% despite the 300 million order in Chile for Abertis. The market is focusing on the Spanish subsidiary for which a governance reorganization and the possible entry of new shareholders are assumed.
GREEN AWARD FOR FALCK, BIESSE GOES SHOPPING
In the rest of the list: Falck Renewables +0.7% won first place in the Top 100 - ESG Sustainability Award 2021, an award promoted by Credit Suisse and Kon for companies that have distinguished themselves in the field of sustainable development, combining innovation and respect of ESG principles. In evidence Biesse +3,25% which signed the contract for the acquisition of Forvet, a manufacturer of special automated machines for glass processing.
