Cashmere and leather, the two jewels of Italian luxury are moving on opposite trends in light of the latest data photographing their first 9 months of the year. This morning in Piazza Affari BRUNELLO CUCINELLI late morning share up 3,98% to 74,50 euros, but managed to gain over four points. Salvatore Ferragamo share 11,63 down by 2,43%, but ended up losing more than five points.
The accounts of the first 9 months: Cucinelli is growing and raising his goals
Cucinelli, the queen of cashmere, he saw revenues for 818,4 million as of September 30, up 27,5% compared to the same period of 2022 at current exchange rates (+28,8% at constant exchange rates). In detail, in the Americas turnover rose by 21,7%, in Europe by 18,3% with Italy at +24,5% and in Asia by 49,7%. As for the progress of the sales channels, retail recorded a +34,6%, while the Wholesale saw an increase of 17,1%. The data allowed the company to cashmere to raise the end-of-year targets, now forecasting revenue growth of between 20% and 22% compared to the +19% previously estimated. In 2023 the company also expects "a healthy margin, in line with the first part of the year, and a very positive increase in profits".
As for the 2024 and 2025Then, Cucinelli imagines "a healthy and balanced growth of around +10%, maintaining our focus on style, elegance, rarity and exclusivity of the brand". Third quarter revenues, analysts point out Intermonte, are “better than expected”. “We confirm our positive view on the stock which for the third time has revised the guidance for the current year”, they add, also judging the forecast for 2024 as “credible”. Cucinelli, calculate from Equity, “trades at 37,6 times the 2024 earnings estimate and with the recent outperformance (+1% in one month versus the sector average -10%) it may have already partially anticipated this positive newsflow”. “The premium over peers – they add – has in fact returned to the 100% area (from 80% at the end of August). However, the premium is still lower than the average 110% since the beginning of 2022, and we think it can therefore continue to be supported by the high visibility on the estimates and the defensive positioning within the sector (absolute luxury, more resilient customers) in the face of a macro more uncertain”.
Ferragamo: overall revenues are down, but growing in the EMEA area
Ferragamo instead saw the revenues consolidated fall by 8,3% to 844 million at current exchange rates also due to the "perimeter reduction both in the retail and wholesale channels” says the Florentine group.
The direct channel recorded net sales decreasing by 10,2%, also penalized by a general weakening of the market in the third quarter, while the wholesale reported revenues falling by 16,6% due to the planned rationalization of the distribution network, the reduction in international travel which affected the duty free channel and the deceleration of the US market.
“Over these nine months we have continued to invest in our business, making fundamental choices and progressing in the execution of our strategic priorities, in line with our plans,” he says Marco Gobbetti, CEO and general manager of Salvatore Ferragamo. “We are satisfied with the first results of the products designed by our creative director Maximilian Davis, confirmed by the success of our recent spring-summer 2024 fashion show which achieved excellent feedback and visibility. The overall sales trend reflects, in this phase, the continuous attention to the quality of sales, the rationalization of the distribution networks, as well as the evolution of the offer and the acceleration of the transition towards the new creative course, whose full potential will be evident in 2024”. At a regional level, the area Pacific Asia generated net sales down 16,4%, with the Japanese market at -11,6% in the nine months. LEMEA area instead he reported a del% increase 3,1. Subdued performance also for the new continent, where the North American area recorded a decrease in revenues of 20,1% and Central and South America a drop of 3,1%. “Optimizing product assortment and enhancing marketing activities progressively strengthens the brand and creates engagement with existing and new audiences. Although the global market context is increasingly uncertain, we confirm our medium-term ambitions,” concluded Gobbetti.
Numbers judged "weak" by experts Intermonte, according to which “consensus estimates could continue to be challenging in the current macro context”. More optimistic instead Equity which sees the third quarter turnover as "substantially in line", judging the outlook as "cautious" while noting "encouraging ideas on the relaunch". “Although visibility on estimates is more rarefied in the current macro context, these first signs confirm the approach of a trend reversal which we expect to form the basis for a significant acceleration in profits from 2024 onwards, in a context of normalization of sector growth", conclude the analysts.
