The interest in the technological is still the main driver of today's markets, with the asian bags which have moved upwards, while the United States will be closed for Labor Day. The spotlight will be on German government bonds today after yesterday's victory in Saxony of the far right AfD. In Week the main event will be the ECB, expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, while data onUS inflationThe PPI on Thursday and the CPI on Friday could give an indication of the path of Fed rates, which will announce its decision next week.
Oil rises toward $98 after renewed mutual attacks in the Middle East
On the geopolitical front, the situation remains critical. The United States said it launched attacks against three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, destroying one, in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on U.S. Navy warships. In response, Iran's top security official said a new no-go zone outside the Strait of Hormuz will be declared in the coming days, starting from the U.S. Navy blockade line and extending into parts of the Persian Gulf, according to a report by Press TV. Brent crude rose 1,5% to $97,73 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was trading around $92.
Yesterday, at the virtual meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, as expected, maintained their production targets for September and October 2026. This represents a reversal in the cartel's strategy after six months of increases, implemented starting in March to address the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The next meeting will be held on October 4th.
Wall Street mostly fell on Friday, but tech stocks remained buoyant thanks to OpenAI's new model. Today is Labor Day.
Friday Wall Street Stocks closed mostly lower on Friday, as a solid jobs report increased the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate at this month's monetary policy meeting. But the technology sector remained supported. Dow Jones closed at -0,51%, S & P 500 at -0,38%, Nasdaq Down 0,29%. After Friday's decline, the S&P 500 closed the week slightly higher, about 1% from its all-time high in mid-August, a gain of nearly 13% since the beginning of the year, buoyed by an exceptionally strong year for corporate earnings. However, investors braced for a possible correction in September, which is historically the weakest month of the year for US stocks.
Il semiconductor industry significantly outperformed, gaining 3,4%, but still down 17,8% this quarter. One reason behind the gains is theoptimism the new OpenAI model could stimulate demand for AI computing power. Last week, OpenAI announced the release of a new generation of its technology, called GPT-6, which the company considers a milestone in its decade-long commitment to AI creation.
Software and services which had gained 24% in the same period, were significantly behind on the day, losing 2,1%. Adobe fell 6,7% following the announcement that longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen will be replaced by Anil Chakravarthy, an internal executive.
The basic focus remains on the next steps by the Fed, with the next monetary policy meeting on the agenda September 15-16. After Friday's data on theUS occupation, a result three times stronger than expected, expectations have grown for a rate hike at 57%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, up from 49,4% on Thursday. But this week, new indications will come from data on theinflation, which the Fed is paying closer attention to: producer prices are on the agenda for Thursday and consumer prices on Friday. Citigroup postponed its forecast for a Fed rate cut until 2027, following solid US employment data.
The bond market is also receiving considerable attention. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond at 10 years old rose slightly to 4,78% late Friday, approaching 5%, a level that investors have flagged as problematic for stock markets. This week, the Department of Tesoro should launch its broader stock buyback program long-term debt, announced last month and interpreted as an attempt to contain rising Treasury yields. The move calls for doubling the amount of Treasury debt repurchases to at least $4 billion per transaction. It will apply to the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year segments and will run from September 9th to November 4th.
The index of dollar enjoyed only a modest gain following the release of the jobs report, as concerns over the US debt ever-growing and political uncertainties erode the currency's purchasing power.
President Donald Trump caused a stir on Friday by warning that he would trade was interrupted international trade with countries running a trade surplus with the United States if the Federal Reserve had not cut interest rates as he demanded.
Asia led by technology stocks. Kospi nears 7.000 points (+4,3%).
Semiconductor maker stocks led the gains asian bags, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index at +1,1%, reaching the highest level since June. The Kospi South Korean stocks rose about 4,3% to 6.973. with South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix (+ 7,8%) and Samsung Electronics (+5,2%) was among the main contributors. Some traders cited Goldman Sachs's extremely optimistic forecasts, which predict a further 75% increase in the Kospi to 12.000 points, although this has been a widely held forecast for some time. Also rising was the Nikkei Japanese up 2%.
La China China is injecting 300 billion yuan ($45 billion) into its largest banks and insurance companies, part of the country's largest recapitalization in two decades, to strengthen its financial system and support lending amid slowing economic growth. Chinese blue chips rose 0,2%.
Lo yen The Japanese yen gained ground amid speculation about a possible increase in the Japanese Government Pension Fund's (GPI) investment in domestic assets and as traders weighed a potential interest rate hike by the central bank. The currency strengthened as much as 0,3%, reaching 155,80 per dollar. Markets expect a 75% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by a quarter point at its September 18 meeting, with a 60% chance of further action by December.
In the raw materials sector, the'gold fell 0,3% to $4.411 an ounce, after finding support at $4.282 last week.
European stock markets are expected to open little changed. At the Milan Stock Exchange, attention will be on banks, Moncler, and Eni.
European stock markets are expected to open little changed this morning, based on Eurostoxx 50 futures trading down 0,1%.
GermanyThe far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party took first place in Saxony-Anhalt's state elections yesterday, though it has yet to secure a majority. The euro remained virtually unchanged at $1,1608, but German Bunds could come under pressure if the AfD appears poised to seize power.
PsMinister Giorgetti declared yesterday at the Teha Forum in Cernobbio that the government will not interfere in mergers and acquisitions involving Monte dei Paschi, reiterating Rome's position of neutrality in the ongoing banking sector consolidation. He also confirmed that the Treasury will not sell its 4,8% stake in MPS before the current battle for control of the Siena-based bank is concluded.
EniA new agreement has been signed to develop the Junín 5 oil field in Venezuela, part of a U.S.-led effort to revitalize the country's oil sector, increasing the Italian energy giant's chances of recovering more than $2,3 billion in debt owed to Caracas.
Enel has asked Aneel, Brazil's energy regulator, to annul the proceedings aimed at revoking its electricity distribution concession in São Paulo, arguing that the authority failed to conduct a structured analysis of the impact on consumers.
Iveco The tender offer for Tata Motors has been approved by Consob and is now open until October 26. The tender offer could be extended by an additional five days, from November 2 to November 6, subject to certain conditions and at Tata's request.
MonclerRothschild raised its target price from 54 to 56 euros and its recommendation from neutral to buy.
DiasorinThermo Fisher CEO expects life sciences environment to improve after post-2025 challenges.
Lottomatica. It estimates that, within the third year following the closing of the transaction with Cirsa, it will be possible to achieve incremental online EBITDA of approximately €200 million to €300 million.
