The golden age for the real estate market, evidenced by the data of the 2025 is coming to an end. The the climate has definitely changed with the beginning of the 2026, tormented by the war in the Middle East which caused the Strait of Hormuz to narrow, in turn causing a rise in theinflation. As a consequence, the central banks they have already started to put their hands forward by indicating a more restrictive monetary policy if these conditions continue. And this is already having repercussions on mortgage rates, with the variable rate now close to the fixed rate.
In Europe now, markets are fully discounting two increases of 25 basis points in the three meetings of the ECB maximum September and predict about a 75% chance of a third increase within end of year with direct consequences on the cost of real estate financing.
Uno completely different scenario compared to what was seen between the 2024 and the 2025 when the ECB decided well eight reductions in the cost of money. In its last meeting last 30th April the central bank has left rates remain unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2,15% and the marginal refinancing rate at 2,40%. But Frankfurt has underlined that the approach will remain data-driven, with particular attention to the developments in the Middle Eastern conflict. And the data does not reveal a peaceful situation: the rise in oil prices it quickly transferred to the general price level, with theinflation in the Eurozone rose to 2,6% in March according to Eurostat and Istat data, which for Italy reported a +1,2% in April. A situation that is partly reminiscent of what happened in 2022, when the energy shock linked to the conflict in Ukraine triggered a race to raise interest rates, which particularly hit those with variable-rate mortgages.
The trend of the fixed rate and the variable rate
According to the data of theMutuiOnline.it Observatory, last April the average TAN of the 20- and 30-year mortgages a fixed rate It stood at 3,37%, the variable rate at 2,62%. The difference between the two formulas was 75 basis points in favor of the indexed rate, a margin that still makes the variable rate the least expensive option in the short term.
But the situation is constantly evolving. On the reference index front, the 3-month Euribor yesterday it was set at 2,25% from 2,15% just a week ago, while theIRS at 20 years (parameter for fixed rates) is in the 3,24% area, up from the 3% area a week ago.
The variable rate, which had fluctuated between 2,55% and 2,72% since June 2025, stopped falling when the ECB halted its rate cuts. Fixed-rate yields, for their part, have reflected geopolitical tensions with a gradual rise, first linked to the threat of trade tariffs and then to the Middle East crisis.
The better the situation is for the green mortgage, Aimed at those who own a property with a high energy coefficient, which, according to figures from the MutuiOnline.it Observatory, allows for an interest rate up to 40-50 basis points lower than a traditional home mortgage.
According to data from Bank of Italy, However, updated in March, banks have slightly reduced the rates on new mortgages to families, although they remain high: the APR, which also includes additional and processing costs, stood at 3,81% from 3,87%.
The 2025 party is over
The situation reported by the 2025 data is very different. Notarial Statistical Data (Dsn) which showed a6,6% increase in sales of homes over the year, continuing the trend seen in 2024, a period in which the ECB had seen eight rate cuts. At the same time, it also grew in 2025, with a jump of +18,8%, number of loans granted, rising to 404.530 euros, with a 30,4% increase in the disbursed capital. In particular, the residential properties, used for first and second home, recorded a 6,6% increase in sales. The median value of first-time home purchases from private individuals in 2025 stood at €125.000, up from €119.000 in 2024 and €113.000 in 2023.
2025 closes for the national real estate market with a total value of transactions for 145,4 billion, up from 139,4 billion in 2024, equal to a growth of 4,3% on an annual basis.
