Just like in 2007, when Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen completed his sensational comeback by going on to win the last Prancing Horse driver's title by recovering 17 points (out of 20 available, at the time victory was worth 10) in Hamilton in the last two races, this too will be time the Interlagos Grand Prix, in Sao Paulo in Brazil, to award the Formula 1 World Championship. Once again Ferrari is chasing: it's Fernando Alonso's, who will have to make up the 13-point gap from the elusive German of Red Bull Sebastian Vettel who, however, was duped by Hamilton in Austin, Texas, finishing only second and allowing the Spaniard, who finished third, to still remain in the race for the drivers' title.
According to a statistical calculation, Alonso has a 25% chance of overtaking Vettel in the standings at the very last race like Seb did in 2010 in Abu Dhabi taking advantage of the terrible strategy adopted by Ferrari, intent on making the race on Webber (leading the World), effectively snubbing Vettel who graduated World Champion. The Spaniard will need to win and hope that the German reaches no more than sixth place, but in the event of a sensational departure from the GP of the Red Bull driver, third place could even be enough to triumph in the World Championship. A further chance of victory for Fernando Alonso would be to finish second and hope that Vettel finishes at least eighth; if at least one of these probabilities were to occur, it would be the most beautiful victory in his career because it was unexpected for the Asturian driver who came to fight for the World Championship once again at the last Grand Prix although at the start of the season this could have been considered a real utopia.
In the Ferrari house, everyone believes in the final turnaround, starting with President Montezemolo who appears confident in a possible outcome in favor of Alonso, and ending with the Spanish driver himself, who feels in his heart that he has more than a 25% chance that mathematics currently offers him: the grid positions on the Brazilian circuit will be decisive, which has always been a favorable track for the Maranello team, moreover Alonso can count on the contribution of the recovered Felipe Massa (author of an excellent performance yesterday in Texas) who has always offered the best performances at Interlagos and who can play a decisive role in his teammate's fight for the title. The weather forecasts will also be fundamental, as they could prove to be a variable that went crazy on the last weekend of the season. The superiority of Red Bull could thus be thwarted by a possible race in the wet which could favor Ferrari and upset the cards on the table; Alonso himself is hoping for rain as a further ally in winning the World Cup, but at least until Friday the forecasts will be a big question mark. Another factor that could be decisive in terms of the championship is the not exactly optimal reliability of the "flying cans" in the last few outings: Webber knows something about this, who was forced to retire during yesterday's race, but Vettel himself also "tested ” the troubles that have been afflicting the single-seaters of the World Champion team for some GPs, who found himself at the back of the grid in the Abu Dhabi race after the problem he accused in qualifying.
Regardless of Fernando Alonso's result, a fourth place will be enough for Vettel to become F1 World Champion for the third time in a row. Instead, the Spaniard will need a feat and a lot of luck, but the twists and turns in this sport are always around the corner.
In summary, Fernando Alonso wins if:
– Vince and Vettel finishes fifth or worse
– Finishes second and Vettel finishes eighth or worse
– Finishes third and Vettel finishes tenth or worse
