Il ballot he doesn't put the center sheltered, or rather remains an unknown for both sides. To line up the unknowns of the possible Electoral law with double round and majority bonus is Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and pollster and co-founder of the YouTrend research center, interviewed by Corriere della Sera.
According to Pregliasco, with the current numbers the centre-right would stand at 42%, without the 7% attributed to Vannacci, while the center-left would be at 44%, without Calenda's approximately 3,5%. These numbers, he specifies, are "voting intentions that do not take into account the possibility of a runoff, which is being discussed these days."
And this is precisely where the unknown factor arises. Because, according to Pregliasco, "the coalition is banking on Giorgia Meloni's charisma, and on the perception that voters may have of the second round, as a sort of presidential system, but there is the risk of a boomerang effect." The reason also lies in the ParticipationHistorically, in municipal elections, the center-right tends to lose voters in the runoff, also because its electorate is "less militant, with a medium-low interest in politics."
The outcome, given current data, remains to be seen: assuming a 3% loss between the two rounds, Pregliasco explains, the center-right would reach 39%, which could rise to 46% with the full transfer of Vannacci's votes. The center-left, on the other hand, could gain about two points from Calenda's voters and other coalitions. "At that point, we're at 46% for both coalitions," Pregliasco observes. And with the majority premium, “one more vote is enough to decide the victory of one or the other”.
It also remains to be seen how many Vannacci voters would return to the polls in the second round: according to Pregliasco, one in three voters might not, as it would be partly a "protest vote, not caring if Meloni wins." The issue, therefore, concerns both coalitions: convincing their voters to return to the polls. "Yes, the runoff, which the center-right wants to counter Vannacci, carries the risk of losing points for both coalitions."
Also because, according to Pregliasco, it is It's still too early to make predictions"An unprecedented scenario. Many variables. There's no system in Europe with a majority bonus and two rounds of voting. The election campaign will be much more polarized." And this is precisely the unknown factor: the mechanism that would decide the majority could make the game even more open.
