It was in the air and in the end, as recently happened for Spain and Portugal, the rating agency Fitch also raised Italy's rating, which It thus goes from BBB with a positive outlook to BBB+ with a stable outlookThis is the second consecutive upgrade for our country, given that last year Fitch had already confirmed the BBB rating, but upgraded the outlook from stable to positive. In favor of Italy, the international rating agency recognized an improvement in public finances and political stability, precisely the two factors that have been lacking in France at this stage, which in fact last week it has been downgraded from AA+ to A+, with a stable outlook.
While Paris, which a dozen years ago boasted the triple A and now instead finds itself halfway between the highest score and the B level, cWhile the lowest investment-grade rating is in place, Rome is slowly climbing back up the ladder: our country, which had dropped to BBB- with a stable outlook at the start of the pandemic, received a first upgrade at the end of 2021—a few months after Mario Draghi's arrival at Palazzo Chigi—and another now. Fitch's decision to raise Italy's sovereign rating is therefore "a greater confidence in Italy's fiscal trajectory, supported by increasing prudence in public finances and a strong commitment to achieving the short- and medium-term budgetary objectives envisaged in the new EU fiscal framework”.
Fitch then highlights how "a stable political context, the continued reform momentum and the reduction of external imbalances Italy's credit indicators further improveThese factors mitigate the risks stemming from still high public debt and growing external challenges.” Fitch expects a continued and gradual reduction in the deficit over the period 2025-2027, supported by structural improvements on the revenue side and strict expenditure control. The agency forecasts a deficit of 3,1% of GDP this year (compared to the official target of 3,3%), reflecting a solid performance in tax revenues in line with a broadening of the tax base (thanks to improving labor market conditions) and increased compliance with tax rules.
Fitch believes that "the government is likely to continue implementing modest tax relief measures, but this is unlikely to jeopardize the fiscal targets. Similar measures were implemented in 2024 and 2025, but the fiscal outcomes continue to exceed targets." "A lot of research, a lot of work. Serious and discreet. We have put Italy back on the right track," he commented. the Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti, following the news of the Fitch rating agency's rating.
