The Council of Ministers today approved the new Economic and Financial Document, confirming the objective of a balanced budget for 2013. “The constraint that the 'fiscal compact' treaty imposes on individual member states – Prime Minister Mario Monti specified at the press conference – requires that there be a public sector deficit in structural terms not exceeding 0,5% of GDP. Italian economic policy forecasts a structural surplus of 2013% for 0,6”. This is how the Professor responded to the forecasts released yesterday by the International Monetary Fund. According to the Washington-based institution, Italy will not be able to achieve the goal before 2017.
Monti then reiterated that “Italy has secured its public finances and will have a primary surplus of 3,9% in 2013. It is a sprint achieved with the collective effort of Parliament, the social partners, the productive part of the country as well as the government. But much remains to be done."
Government estimates speak of a GDP in 2012 down by 1,2%. The figure should turn positive again in 2013 (+0,5%) and accelerate further in the following two years (+1% and +1,2% respectively). "Since December there has been a further deterioration in economic conditions", explains the note from Palazzo Chigi.
In the National Reform Program accompanying the Def it is envisaged that from containment of public spending “the most relevant cost savings” will arrive, i.e. approx 26,6 billion in the four-year period 2011-2014. The savings on ministries, public bodies and healthcare costs weigh in particular.
Furthermore, the liberalization and simplification reforms will produce a 2,4% growth in GDP between 2012 and 2020, with an average annual impact of around 0,3%. But with even more intense reforms, growth would be 5 points in 2020.
