After a 1,4% increase in 2025, this year atradius, a company specialized in the credit insurance sector, foresees the sector construction Globally, growth is projected to increase by 2,3%. Growth in advanced economies will increase by 1,5%, while in emerging markets it will increase by 3,1%. Skilled labor shortages and high labor costs are impacting profit margins and delivery deadlines.
Furthermore, global trade issues have increased commercial uncertainty, leading to a decrease in spending on commercial construction in many countries. Construction growth non-residential will be just 1,6%. In contrast, the residential sector is expected to increase by 2,6% in 2026 and 4,0% next year. The global industrycivil engineering will grow by 2,5% in 2026, followed by a 3,7% increase in 2027.
US construction: rates and costs put pressure on the sector
In the United States 2026 the Forecasts they are talking about a growth of 1,5% on an annual basis. Rates targeted on key inputs for construction such as steel, aluminum e Copper are disproportionately impacting the industry. Project costs are rising to accommodate higher wages, negatively impacting companies with fixed-price contracts. Not to mention that the current policy of limiting immigration is making itself felt in terms of cheap laborThe Fed's recent interest rate cuts are supporting construction activity, but borrowing costs remain high. Analysts expect the Fed to pause before cutting rates again in June and September.
Recovering residential and solid civil engineering
After contracting 0,4% in 2025, residential production is expected to recover 2,5% in 2026, as declining mortgage rates drive a gradual thaw. Nonresidential construction is projected to decline 2,2% after growing 1,1% in 2025. US trade policy continues to hinder and delay investments of companies in new factories or office buildings. Civil engineering performance remains solid, with expected growth of 5,4% in 2026 after a 6,1% increase last year. The sector is benefiting from continued infrastructure investment and large-scale megaprojects, particularly high-tech data centers, to finance the growing demand for AI.
For the moment, the US construction industry as a whole resists, despite pressure on profit margins due to high interest, material, and labor costs. Atradius does not expect any deterioration in credit risk over the next six months.
Far East: China leads construction recovery
In Far East, after a contraction of 0,9% in 2025, this year the Chinese construction production will recover by 2%. Since significant fiscal resources will be allocated to the real estate sector, residential construction is expected to recover by 2,5%. The government has forecast mortgage rate cuts, eased restrictions on home purchases and funded support for targeted real estate projects, such as social housing. The fiscal stimulus aims to rebalance the economy toward advanced and high-tech manufacturing. This is boosting non-residential construction activity, which is expected to grow by 3,2%.
The risk of late payments and construction insolvency remains higher than the industry average, especially for private contractors and real estate developers.
Europe: Moderate Growth and High Costs
In the Old Continent, construction activity throughout theeuro area should increase by 1,6% in 2026 After growing by 0,6% in 2025, the residential sector is expected to grow by 1,5%, supported by the ECB's interest rate cuts last year. Civil engineering production is forecast to increase by 1,6%. In both the EU and the UK, material costs will remain higher than in the past, and the shortage of labor It is structural. Both problems negatively affect the margini of the buildersCredit risk for construction companies remains elevated in most European markets.
UK construction: residential growth, non-residential pressure
Specifically, in Uk la construction production is expected to increase by 1,5%Interest rate cuts are underway, but from a high level and will take time to achieve an improvement in construction activity. Residential construction is expected to grow by 3,5%. The government has announced the construction of 1,5 million new homes by 2030, but analysts have serious doubts about whether this target is achievable under current market conditions. Recent increases in contributions to National Insurance and the national living wage are weighing on the profitability of British businesses, impacting their financial capacity for investment. Therefore, non-residential construction activity is expected to decline by 1% in 2026.
In the UK, many new construction projects continue to face delays due to previous contracts, supply chain issues, price inflation and delays in planning application approval. construction insolvencies peaked in 2024, at levels rivaled only by the 2008 financial crisis.
Italy: slow growth and high credit risk
In Italy, after a growth of 3,3% in 2025Construction production growth is expected to slow to 1,1%. Producer prices remain elevated, which is impacting activity. Residential construction production will remain subdued, growing by 1,2% this year. However, the increase in investments in this segment it indicates a certain recovery, even if performance is slower than in civil engineering.
Il credit risk The sector is high due to fluctuating demand, liquidity shortages, banks' reluctance to grant loans, and extended payment terms. Between 2023 and 2025, the insolvency rate among Italian construction companies has shown an upward trend. Atradius expects a high insolvency risk due to structural and financial weaknesses.
