Btp and Bot: those in foreign hands go up but trades go down

The average daily volume of Italian government bonds traded in the first quarter of 2019 decreased by 27% on the previous year, but the value of those held by foreign subjects rose to 648 billion euros

Positive but cautious stock markets awaiting the indications of the central banks and the developments of the major geopolitical issues.

Surprisingly, Chinese President Xi will go to North Korea this week, for the first time since 2005. It could be an opportunity to reopen a channel with Washington in view of the G20 in Japan.

BEIJING STILL SELLS IT BOND

But, confirming the climate of cold war between China and the USA, the news arrived yesterday that Beijing is continuing to sell T Bonds: in April bonds worth 7 billion dollars were sold, the stock (1.100 billion) is at least for two years.

However, the plus sign prevails on the Asian price lists: Hang Seng of Hong Kong +0,8%, CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +0,3%, Kospi of Seoul +0,4%, Sydney +0,5%.

Only the Nikkei index of Tokyo (-0,6%) lost its blows, two days before the meeting of the Central Bank from which the confirmation of new stimuli for the economy is expected. Meanwhile, the hypothesis of an increase in pension costs to support the system is looming: it is a serious threat to the leadership of Shinzo Abe.

The yen appreciates to 108,3 against the dollar.

BRAKES US INDUSTRY, HOLDS THE STOCK

Expectations of an upcoming rate cut by the Fed grew yesterday after the bad data from the New York State manufacturing index, which fell sharply in June to -8,6, against expectations of 11 and the previous figure was 17,8: Dow Jones and S&P 500 +0,09%, Nasdaq +0,62%.

Treasury Notes trade at 2,07%. The market discounts four reductions in the cost of money between now and the end of next year.

GOLDMAN LAUNCHES A SUPER FUND

Goldman Sachs has announced the birth of a 140 billion-strong investment fund in assets thanks to the merger of the products currently dedicated to unlisted securities, real estate and companies in difficulty.

DRAHI BUYS SOTHEBY'S, PFIZER BUYS ANTI-CANCER

French billionaire Patrick Drahi, owner of Altice, bought control of the Sotheby's auction house in a $3,7 billion deal. The offer, at $57 a share, carries a 61% premium to Sotheby's Friday night's closing price. The group will thus exit the Stock Exchange after being listed for 31 years in New York. Thus Drahi joins his compatriot Francois Pinault who owns Christie's.

Pfizer announced the acquisition of Array Biopharma, an oncology company. The price paid, $10 billion in cash, is 6% of last Friday's closing price.

IRAN INCREASES URANIUM STOCKS, OIL BRAKING

Tension is still rising in the Persian Gulf, after Iran announced that on June 27 it will exceed the stock of enriched uranium envisaged by the agreements of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty denounced by Donald Trump who ordered the sending of a thousand soldiers to the area .

But, thanks to the crisis in Chinese demand, Brent oil yesterday fell by almost 2%, North Sea crude this morning is unchanged at 61 dollars. The leaders of Russia and Iran met to talk about energy and oil, Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he was in favor of a plenary meeting of enlarged OPEC members in July, but on a date different from the one proposed by Saudi Arabia and its allies.

Stocks linked to crude oil were subdued yesterday in Piazza Affari: Eni down by 0,53%, Saipem by 0,58%.

The euro appreciates slightly, to 1,123 against the dollar (+0,2%).

EU INFLATION SHOULDER. THE WORD TO DRAGES

Weak closing yesterday for Piazza Affari (+0,07%) and for the other European stock exchanges (in Frankfurt the Dax30 gained 0,02%) pending Mario Draghi's speech in Sintra, which inaugurated the annual meeting sponsored by the ECB. Draghi will speak this morning at 11.

Meanwhile, the value of the derivative that anticipates inflation expectations in the euro area fell yesterday, for the duration of 5 years, to an all-time low of 1,13%, thus putting a strain on the choices of the central bank.

Should inflation expectations fall below 1%, the ECB could be forced to announce a cut in deposit rates by 0,10% or from -0,40% to -0,5%. But at that point the central bank could consider the impact of negative rates on financial intermediaries, especially banks. At that point, the hypothesis of applying a differentiated rate to deposits should be taken into consideration. Or it could include in the regulation of the new TLTROs the hypothesis of a further lowering of rates in case of need. A good way to celebrate the anniversary of "whatever it takes", which will turn five on July 26th.

Matteo Salvini was received yesterday in Washington by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The deputy premier said that Italy is the state closest to the US in Europe and that the country needs a "Trumpian" manoeuvre. Speaking of the flat tax, he added that Italy will convince the EU "with numbers, courtesy, otherwise we'll cut taxes anyway, and the EU will come to terms with it".

ZURICH RISKS EXCLUSION FROM THE EUROPEAN CIRCUIT

The tug of war between Brussels and Switzerland is less dramatic: Zurich (-0,04%) risks losing free access to EU markets if the "equivalent" status, which expires at the end of June, is not renewed. The European Commission has imposed Bern's approval of an agreement, reached last November, as a precondition. deemed insufficient.

In this context, the Italian secondary closed a colorless and directionless day waiting for the line that the government intends to take in the confrontation with the EU Commission to avoid the infringement procedure for excessive debt to be clarified in the coming days. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte should meet between today and tomorrow the deputies Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, to agree on the line to be taken in Brussels.

SPREAD AT 254 POINTS, 648 BILLION IN THE HANDS OF FOREIGNERS

The spread, which started in the morning in the area of 257 basis points, closed at 254 points on the lows of the session after having reached a maximum of 260. The 10-year yield fell to 2,29% from 2,32% at the final on Friday.

In the first three months of 2019, the daily average of volumes traded on Italian government bonds fell by 27% compared to the first quarter of 2018, while the same figure for the Eurozone shows an increase of 15%.

In March, the value of the portfolio of Italian government bonds held by foreign entities rose to 648,919 billion from 645,537 billion in February.

SARRI HOLDS BACK THE BIANCONERI, GIALLOROSSI CLOSE THE RISE

In a day without history, it was football that reserved emotions. Starting with a timid rise, the Juventus stock lost positions during the day to close at a low of -3,41%: debut in red for Maurizio Sarri, who pays for the disappointment of Pep Guardiola's non-arrival.

Opposite trend for As Roma: the stock floated below parity for the entire session, simultaneously with Francesco Totti's farewell press conference. But, in a sudden counter-attack, the stock closed up 1,59%.

TIM LEAVES WALL STREET, BANKS TRUSTED

Tim (+1%) has decided to start the procedure to exit the NYSE in New York: it could be the first step in simplifying ownership, the next could be the launch of an offer on savings shares (+1%).

Weak banks in the final. In Europe, the news that in July the next shareholders' meeting of Deutsche Bank (+1,36%) will launch a cleaning plan in the order of 50 billion euro without resorting to public funds is taking center stage.

In Italy, to underline that the emergency is not over, comes the news of the amendment by the Lega and M5s which introduces tax incentives for mergers between banks in the South, i.e. support for Banca Popolare di Bari whose capital ratios have slipped below requirements set by the Bank of Italy after the net loss of 397 million recorded last year.

The best stocks yesterday were those of Banco Bpm and Bper (+0,76%). Among the Bigs, Unicredit yields 0,26%, Intesa San Paolo 0,35%.

In assets under management, Azimut (+1,47%) rose supported by expectations for results for the quarter and Banca Generali (+1,1%), awaiting a possible acquisition in Switzerland.

FCA RISES, VOLKSWAGEN PUSHES CNH

Well collected Fiat Chrysler (+0,9%) in a market that looks to a possible reopening of talks with Renault.

In the rest of the automotive sector, Pirelli -0,3% and Cnh Industrial +0,6%. Even if market conditions are not favourable, the listing procedure for Traton, the Volkswagen subsidiary active in heavy vehicles, continues at multiples higher than the share of the company controlled by Exor.

Ferraris +0,5%. Jefferies raises the target price to 130 euros.