Silence, the Fed speaks. European financial operators will begin the last weekend of August only after having listened to the words of Janet Yellen, who will speak at the Jackson Hole conference in the late afternoon, so as not to influence the final moments of the financial week. Hence the easy prediction that today's session will not register significant movements: the weekend will serve to digest, if any, the indications arriving from the Central Bank.
In the meantime, both Robert Kaspaln, of the Dallas Fed, and Esther George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve who is hosting the meeting, went so far as to declare that "it is time to move to raise the cost of money gradually", even if “the approach need not be aggressive”. That is, by 2016 there will be only one increase, equal to a quarter of a point, probably in December, after the elections.
Meanwhile, the stock exchanges have moved little, and in no particular order.
TOKYO IN DEFLATION, HILLARY HOLDS BACK PHARMA
Deflation worsens in Japan. This morning the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 0,9% on the wave of a new leap forward in the yen. Inflation fell to -0,5% from the previous -0,4%, to its lowest since March 2013. The market takes for granted new stimuli to support prices, but doubts are growing about the efficacy of the therapy, also because the margins of action are increasingly limited: the 0,071-year bond trades at -0,6%. The Chinese Stock Exchanges performed better: Shanghai +0,7%, Hong Kong +XNUMX%.
Wall Street closed yesterday evening slightly down: Dow Jones -0,18%, S&P 500 -0,14%. The Nasdaq was also down (-0,11%). The health sector is under pressure: the tug-of-war over Mylan continues (-0,7%), which resists the invitation to lower the price of EpiPen, an anti-allergic sold "with shameful profits", according to Hillary Clinton (+400% on increase since 2010). The pressing of the Democratic presidential candidate was also felt in Europe: the sector is down by 1,42%. In Milan, Recordati drops by 2,25%.
Macroeconomic data from overseas seem to prove the Fed's hawks right. Orders of durable goods rose by 4,4% in July, above the consensus expectations of economists (+3,4%). The labor market was also doing well: weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1.000 units, to 261.000 units, compared to the 265.000 expected by the consensus.
OIL RISING: IRAN WILL PARTICIPATE IN OPEC MEETING
Oil up after the confirmation that Iran will participate in the OPEC meeting scheduled in Algeria next month: Brent at 49,5 dollars a barrel, Wti up 0,4% to 47,3 dollars.
However, it was a day of realizations for oil companies in Piazza Affari: Eni -1,1% despite the start of the coverage of Macquarie with an outperform rating and a target price of 16 euros, 19,6% more than the current price . Saipem and Tenaris were also weak, both at -1,3%.
MILAN -1,1%. THE TREASURY OFFERS 7,75 BILLION IN THE MEDIUM-LONG TERM
In the Old Continent, this morning in the limelight are the data of the gross domestic product of France and, above all, those of the United Kingdom, the first after Brexit. On the corporate front, the Prada quarterly is scheduled. A downward opening is expected for European lists, awaiting insights into the Fed's moves.
Yesterday the Milan Stock Exchange closed down after three consecutive days of gains: the Ftse Mib index lost 1,1% to 16.710 points. The losses of the other European Stock Exchanges were less heavy: London -0,3%, Paris -0,7%, Frankfurt -0,9%. The Ifo index, an indicator of German business confidence, fell in August to its lowest level since December 2014, at 106,2 points. The data confirms the decline in managers' optimism after the vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union.
The spread with the Bund of peripheral securities is narrowing, supported by the agreement between the EU and Portugal on the recapitalization of the state bank Gcd through an injection of up to 2,7 billion euros in state funds and almost as much in bonds and shares. The Treasury will offer between 30 and 6,26 billion of medium-long term bonds next Tuesday 7,75 August.
THE MARKET DOES NOT BELIEVE IN FINECO-BANCA GENERALI
After the strong rises of the last few sessions, a day of realizations for all the banks. Loses Unicredit hits (-3,7%). While awaiting news from the negotiation for the sale of 33% of Banca Pekao, speculation was triggered by rumors of a possible merger between Fineco Bank (-1,4%) and Banca Generali (+0,67%), an operation suggested by some business houses but viewed with great skepticism by analysts, who consider the two institutes difficult to integrate.
Closing in the red also for Bper (-2,96%): the CEO Alessandro Vandelli informed the Board yesterday evening that, after the failure of the joint sale attempt, the US funds of the four good banks (born from the resolution of Banca Marche, Etruria, Cariferrara and Carichieti), the hypothesis of a purchase of Banca Marche and Popolare dell'Etruria is once again topical. Instead, Ubi Banca (-2,15%) is called out of the game, approached in recent days in Cariferrara. Also down were Intesa (-0,8%), Banco Popolare (-2,8%) and Monte Paschi (-2%).
GENERALI AND UNICREDIT TOWARDS THE EXIT FROM THE EUROSTOXX 50
The echo of the terrible and devastating earthquake that hit the upper Lazio and the Marches it also made itself felt on insurance stocks, although the impact on the companies shouldn't be too significant: around 20 million for Generali (-2,84%), based on estimates based on the L'Aquila precedent and net of the reinsurance. The prospect that on 31 August next the stock may leave the Eurostoxx 50 index together with Unicredit and the French Carrefour contributed to the downside. UnipolSai -1,23%.
VIVENDI A MEDIASET: THE AGREEMENT WILL BE VOID AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER
Mediaset was down sharply (-2,3%). Yesterday evening, at the end of the board meeting, it arrived Vivendi's dry stance on the Premium affair: "From the audit and from our analyzes - reads a press release from the transalpine group - the data provided before signing the agreement are not realistic and are based on artificially increased bases".
This situation, the note adds, “led the two sides to try to negotiate the terms of the contract in June. While contacts with Vivendi continued, Mediaset and Fininvest abruptly launched media attacks to the detriment of Vivendi's interests and image”.
The press release adds that the agreement could in any case expire on 30 September, the final date for the green light from the Commission which will not deal with the dossier as long as the parties discuss their points of difference. The Parisian group added that it expects that the first hearing relating to the lawsuit brought by Mediaset will not be held before February 27, 2017. There is still time to argue before the agreement which the market deems inevitable. Pay TV, meanwhile, is also causing pain in Bolloré at home: the media group, which achieved revenues of approximately 2,55 billion (-1,9%) has announced cost cuts to Canal+ for 300 million, of which 60-80 million already in 2016.
Little move Telecom Italia (-0,19%), supported by rumors of a possible interest of Orange in entering the share capital of the Italian group through an agreement with Bolloré, as claimed by Challenge, a reliable transalpine magazine.
AUTOMOTIVE HOLDS BACK, BUT SAMSUNG SUPPORTS FCA
The automotive sector slowed down (-1,5% for the European Stoxx index). In Milan, Cnh Industrial (-2,44%), Ferrari (-0,55%) and, outside the main basket, also Pininfarina (-2,57%) and Piaggio (-2,1%) fell. Fiat Chrysler did better than the market (-0,16%), thanks to the return of attention to a possible sale of Magneti Marelli to Samsung for more than 3 billion dollars.
Leonardo -1,8%: the group has launched a massive public relations effort in Taiwan to salvage an agreement with a local airline that could have a value of around 1,5-2, as estimated by Banca Akros billion euros.
Among the small caps, Elica did well (+6,76%) after the end of the half-year which saw profits expand by 76%.
