Bets on a Fed rate cut are strengthening following today's disappointing US private sector employment data—which paves the way for tomorrow's employment report—and this is improving market sentiment, while modest gains are weighing on gold after its recent record highs. The wind of optimism It clears away some clouds and allows European stock markets to close cautiously higher, while Wall Street moves in moderately positive territory. Government bond yields fall.
In the Old Continent Milan is close to 42 basis points, up 0,49%, driven primarily by Telecom Italia (+4,89%), although Leonardo fell (-4,02%), Saab slumped (-4,06%) in Stockholm, and while the willing were at the Elysée Palace to discuss the war in Ukraine. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reiterated Italy's opposition to sending troops. Luxury stocks also fell on the day of Giorgio Armani's death.
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Frankfurt marks +0,71%; London +0,37%; Amsterdam +1,34%; Madrid +0,86%. Paris bucks the trend, closing down 0,27%, weighed down by Sanofi (-7,87%) and the big names. Among the stocks that are losing at the continental level, those of low-cost airlines, worried by the results of the British Jet 2 (-12,52%), with shares that lost up to 25% due to the announcement that the operating profit for the 2025/2026 financial year will be at the lower end of expectations.
Wall Street cautious but positive after disappointing macro data
Across the Atlantic, the DJ (+0,41%), S&P 500 (+0,36%), and Nasdaq (+0,29%) are moving lightly in light of a macroeconomic framework that seems to favor a more accommodating monetary policy.
The August ADP report onemployment in the private sector, shows lower-than-expected data: 54.000 jobs were created compared to July, after 106.000 in June, while the forecast was for 75.000. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits also rose more than expected (+8.000, to 237.000, versus estimates of 230.000). And the disappointments don't stop there: the trade deficit in July rose 32,5%, while productivity in the second quarter (+3,3%), with labor costs (+1%) lower than expected. This overall picture raises some alarm bells for the US economy, but also supports the possibility of a more dovish Fed, as many have now called for.
While the trade balance is still causing some headaches, the president of the United States Donald Trump He asked the Supreme Court to quickly rule on his request to preserve the tariffs he introduced under a 77 law designed for emergencies. Many of these customs duties have been deemed unlawful by a federal appeals court.
Gold slightly down
Gold take a breath, after having continuously refreshed its highs in recent sessions, although gains currently appear to be very limited. Spot gold is trading at $3546,37 an ounce (-0,36%), while the December futures contract is trading at $3605,92, down 0,8%.
Crude oil is also experiencing a moderately negative day, although it is coming off a downward session. Brent prices price 67,41 dollars a barrel (-0,83%), while Texas crude oil was $63,53 (-0,69%). On the currency market, the euro-dollar exchange rate was little changed, trading at 1,1635.
Piazza Affari, banks in focus, and Pirelli preparing to leave the FTSE MIB.
The banking sector with the highest weight in Piazza Affari is currently in conflict. MPS is down 2,29% and Mediobanca falls by 1,88% after the board of directors of Piazzetta Cuccia met in a quick meeting the offer was rejected again Siena, despite the cash-backed bid. Montepaschi has effectively already achieved its initial target, exceeding 35% of its takeover bid, but the target's top management still emphasized that the offer remains "devoid of any industrial rationale and unprofitable for Mediobanca shareholders."
Italian banks seem tireless these days and the risk continues with Unicredit too (+1%) which appears unwilling to give up its bid for Commerzbank, despite German hostility. CEO Andrea Orcel, speaking in Frankfurt, announced that the Italian bank will own 30% of Commerz by the end of the year and left open the question of a potential takeover bid. The manager also contradicted the German bank's head of operations regarding the notion that UniCredit's entry into the supervisory board would bring a "competitor" to the board. "I disagree," he explained. "There are sufficient rules to ensure that a board member does not act against the company's interests."
Among the best blue chips of the day today are also Banca Mediolanum +2,5%Tenaris +2,09% and Generali +2,08%. Pirelli rose 1,11%, although on September 22nd it will be eliminated from the index of the 40 largest companies by market capitalization, to be replaced by Lottomatica (-0,09%).
On the opposite side of the price list Diasorin -3,17%, Moncler -2,21%, Campari -1,23%. Outside the main basket, the former Mediaset stocks (Mfe A, +6,99%; Mfe B +6,24%) shine, after having gained the majority from the German ProSieben, with 75,6% of the capital at the end of the public purchase offer.
Spreads down
The sun also shines on the secondary market: the spread between BTPs and Bunds, both with a ten-year duration, falls to 88 basis points (-2%) and the rates fall respectively at 3,6% and 2,72%.
