Le European stock exchanges proceed in no particular order in the middle of the session, on a day without the main reference point Wall Street, closed for the Labor Day holiday. A Milan the Ftse Mib is down 0,08% at 52.058,44 points, while Paris 0,05% salt, Frankfurt of 0,28%, Madrid by 0,22% and London of 0,15%. The results of the regional elections also weigh on the German stock market, marked by theadvance of the far-right AfD and the sharp decline of the CDU, an outcome that rekindles doubts about the political stability of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government. Further complicating the situation is the data on German industrial production, which fell 1,1% monthly in July and 1,6% year-on-year.
The main event of the week will be Thursday 10th September with the ECB meeting, called to deal with a still complex situation on the pricing front. The market now takes it for granted a rate hike of 25 basis pointsThis would be the second restrictive measure of 2026, but attention is already focused on indications of subsequent moves. Eurozone inflation rose to 3,3% in August, well above the 2% target, while the renewed rise in gas and oil prices fuels the risk of further inflationary pressures. Investors are thus eyeing the possibility of a third increase in DecemberThis possibility is already partially priced in by the market, while many economists believe that September's intervention could be the last of the restrictive phase. Friday will instead be the turn of US inflation, a highly anticipated figure ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16th.
The geopolitical situation also weighs on sentiment, among which stalemate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and new tensions in the Middle EastUS attacks on Iranian oil tankers and Tehran's threat to introduce new restrictions off the coast of Strait of Hormuz fuel fears about the continuity of energy flows.
Piazza Affari, Lottomatica surges. Stm and Prysmian do well.
At Piazza Affari, purchases are concentrated on Lottomatica, which rises by 8,65%. company estimates, within the third year from the closing of the transaction with Cirsa, an increase in online EBITDA at full capacity of between approximately 200 and 300 million euros.
Among the most lively titles are also stm, which rises by 2,49%, and Prysmian, up 2,09%. The technology sector benefited from the good performance recorded by sector stocks on the Asian markets, supported by expectations regarding demand linked to artificial intelligence. Also doing well Avio (+ 2,06%) and Moncler (+1,11%), the latter after Rothschild raised its target price from 54 to 56 euros and its recommendation from neutral to buy. The luxury sector, however, remains under pressure. BRUNELLO CUCINELLI, down 0,9%, after the analysis of the Financial Times at the moment LVMH, dragging the sector along with the exception of Moncler.
Among energy-related stocks, Eni salt of 1,30%, Tenaris of 1,28% e Saipem by 1,13%, supported by the rising oil price. Eni also benefits from the agreement for the development of the Junin 5 oil field in Venezuela, which could contribute to the recovery of over $2,3 billion in debt owed by the company to Caracas. Also doing well Stellantis (+ 1,12%).
On the opposite front, heavy Telecom Italy (-4,01%) And Poste Italiane (-3,94%), after the decision of theTIM's CEO and management team are willing to join the takeover bid promoted by Poste Italiane.Among the major declines also Amplifon(-1,99%), Diasorin (-1,88%) And nexi (-1,71%). Also declining Banking Mediolanum, FinecoBank e Unipol, all just under 1%. Weak also Bpm bank despite a cash buyback offer on the entire €500 million Social Senior Preferred bond due November 2027, alongside a new issuance of senior non-preferred notes.
Meanwhile, the focus remains on the bank riskThe next key event is the assembly of Intesa Sanpaolo of September 10, called to approve the capital increase to serve thePublic takeover bid on MPSMeanwhile, from the Cernobbio Forum, Intesa Sanpaolo Chairman Gian Maria Gros-Pietro offered reassurance to Tuscan local authorities concerned about the future of Monte dei Paschi's independence, brand, and headquarters. "This isn't happening," Gros-Pietro explained, emphasizing that shareholders of banks that previously joined the group are now "delighted" to be part of it.
Oil prices rise above $97, while gas prices also rise. The euro-dollar exchange rate strengthens.
The new rise in energy prices represents one of the main elements of attention for the markets. Brent rose 1,02% to $97,25 a barrel, while wtf gains 0,90% to $92,30. The movement brings crude oil back to particularly high levels, with Brent having accumulated a rise of nearly 60% since the beginning of the year. In Amsterdam, the gas: TTF rises 2,21% to 73,54 euros per megawatt hour.
The prices are mainly supported by the supply concerns linked to international tensions. Meanwhile, on the production front, the OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have decided to maintain the production levels planned for September 2026 for October as well.
On the foreign exchange market, theeuro/dollar It strengthened to $1,1624, after touching $1,1630, also supported by the upward revision in eurozone growth. The euro/yen is at 180,98, while the dollar/yen falls to 155,82.
The spread is falling, while yields continue to rise.
Lo spread between BTPs and Bunds falls compared to last week's levels and reaches 82 basis points, but the Government bond yields are rising againThe yield on the 10-year BTP remains at 4,18%, while that on the German Bund rises to 3,36%, keeping the main European government bonds at elevated levels. The spread is therefore narrowing primarily due to the rise in the yield on the German bond, which last week reached 3,3951%, its highest level since April 2011.
The increase also involves the other main European bonds: I'Oat French is at 4,22%, with a spread of 86 points over the Bund, while the passes Spanish yields 3,80%, with a spread of 44 points. The rise in oil prices after the new clashes in Iran and political tensions in Germany, after the 44% obtained by AfD in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
In the background, there remains the wait for the next moves of the ECB, while in the United States the 10-year Treasuries continue to offer yields close to 4,8%, maintaining the high return investors demand even on European stocks. In this scenario, the growth prospects for the Italian economy indicated by the minister Giorgetti, which is targeting GDP growth of 1% in 2026, around a third above expectations, have so far not been enough to push BTP yields back down.
