European stock markets closed lower today positive sitting and recover most of the Friday's losses, while Wall Street rebounded in the American morning. The July US jobs report, and especially the downward revisions from previous months, had contributed to the markets' wobble in the final session of last week. Now, US President Donald Trump has decided to oust the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of falsifying the data for political bias. This means that from now on, investors will be able to weigh reports that are presumably more favorable to the White House.
In this context the strict logic of numbers tells us that Milan gains 1,89% today The stock market recovered 40 basis points (40.697), mainly thanks to banks, after the EBA stress tests last Friday confirmed the solidity of the Italian sector "in a context of persistent global uncertainties." Frankfurt rose 1,22%, Paris 1,14%, Madrid 1,69%, Amsterdam 0,44%, and London 0,56%. Zurich, however, fell slightly, down 0,11%, having been closed on Friday and therefore not affected by the negative impact of the general climate. Also weighing on the stock market is Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Swiss imports to 39% (although a solution is currently being sought). Luxury goods and big pharma stocks weighed on the Swiss stock market, following the US president's request to lower drug prices.
Speaking of star-spangled protectionism: on August 7th the new rules will also come into force. new 15% US tariffs for EU countries, while work is still underway on a joint statement. "With this objective in mind," said spokesperson Olof Gill, "the Commission will take the necessary measures to suspend EU countermeasures against member states for six months."
Wall Street toned
Things are also going well across the Atlantic: DJ +1,09%, S%P 500 +1,17%, NASDAQ +1,44%Markets are strengthening bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, partly because of the employment data released last week and partly because Trump is about to appoint a new member to the Board, following the early resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler. Given the dissent of two members over Powell's tough policy, this raises the possibility that the number of bankers in favor of a more accommodative policy could rise to three out of seven.
At this point, futures are pricing in an 85% probability of a cut next month, up from less than 50% previously, fully pricing in two cuts by the end of the year. In stocks, mega-caps are running high (Apple +2,44%, Nvidia +2,11%, Microsoft +1,8%) and Tesla is appreciated, +0,78%, after the electric vehicle giant's board approved CEO Elon Musk's compensation package, which includes $29 billion in stock. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., on the other hand, fell (-2,74%), after Warren Buffett's company's second-quarter operating profit fell 4% year-over-year. Berkshire wrote down its stake in Kraft Heinz by $3,8 billion.
Sterling rises slightly ahead of BoE
On the foreign exchange market the climate is wait-and-see and in particular the euro-dollar appears flat in the 1,158 area. The pound is appreciating moderately, in view of the BoE meeting which, on Thursday, will presumably cut the interest rates of 0,25% (from 4,25% to 4%). Among commodities, oil narrowed its losses, after yesterday receiving the news that OPEC+ agreed to another substantial increase in crude oil production for September, effectively eliminating the 2,2 million barrel cut decided for 2023. The goal is to regain market share, while geopolitical tensions remain high, with Washington threatening new sanctions against buyers of Russian crude, particularly China and India.
Mediobanca reigns supreme at Piazza Affari
The main list of Piazza Affari is dominated today by banking stocks and above all stands out Mediobanca (+4,62%), followed by MPS (+3,61%), while Siena's takeover bid for Piazzetta Cuccia is underway. However, the appetizing and large prey isn't about to go down without a fight, and Mediobanca has received approval from the Antitrust Authority and the EU Commission for a takeover bid for Banca Generali (+2,19%). It's a race against time to complete this operation before Montepaschi's offer expires, and according to rumors, Unicredit (+3,65%)—which still holds a 1,9% stake in Piazzetta Cuccia—could strengthen its stake and support the operation.
Other prominent banks include Intesa Sanpaolo (+3,24%), Popolare di Sondrio (+2,22%), Banco BPM (+2,26%), and, in asset management, Banca Mediolanum (+2,91%), and Finecobank (+2,64%). Unipol (+2,72%) performed well in insurance: operators, according to Ansa, don't seem to believe the idea, relaunched by the League but opposed by Forza Italia, of a voluntary contribution to the state accounts by the sector. Leonardo returned to the forefront in defense (+2,74%). The blue chips with the greatest declines were Amplifon (-2,56%), Saipem (-1,03%), Campari (-1,04%), and Diasorin (-1,39%). Weakness was seen in the auto sector, with Stellantis -0,29%, which in July saw a 13,1% drop in car registrations in Italy, compared to a 5,11% decline in the market. The group's market share rose to 25,8% last month from 24,55% in June.
Outside the main basket it is in evidence Fincantieri +4,23%, after CEO Pierroberto Folgiero said in an interview published over the weekend that the company will present an updated industrial plan at the end of the year to respond to market demands for increased defense production capacity. Broker Equita notes that "the messages provided by Folgiero are consistent with what was recently stated." The new business plan will be a significant catalyst, revealing the group's future strategy in a rapidly developing environment, especially in the military sector.
Spreads down
The session is also worth noting on the secondary market, where the spread between 84-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration narrowed to 2,27 basis points (-3,47%) and the yield on Italian bonds fell to XNUMX%.
