From Piazzetta Cuccia the spotlight of Italian finance shifts to Rocca Salimbeni. After Mediobanca's rejection of its takeover bid for Banca Generali, for the Monte dei Paschi There are no more obstacles. The deadline is set for on September 8th, the day on which the offer launched by the Sienese bank on the Milanese one will end. Thanks to the Dolphin of the Del Vecchio family, which holds 19,9% of Mediobanca and 9% of Monte dei Paschi and which will become the largest shareholder of MPS (it has already obtained the ECB's approval to increase its stake to 19,9% after the probable wedding), Membership is currently at 19,4% and many already take it for granted that the minimum threshold of 35% will be exceeded, also considering the certain contribution of Caltagirone (9,9%), which has not yet moved, and the alignment of the pension funds (5,5%), Amundi (0,7%) and Unicredit (1,9%) to the interests of a government that openly supports the operationAccording to many investors, MPS could be hit in the next few weeks exceed 50% to then call a Mediobanca meeting which will pass the command to a new management team representing the Sienese bank, while reaching the final (not coincidentally waivable) objective of 66,7% appears more difficult.
Even though Monte dei Paschi's offer now has a clear path to success, some issues remain on the table. questions: Will the long-awaited relaunch demanded by the market come to fruition? What will be the conclusions of the Milan prosecutor's investigation into the Treasury's placement? Not to mention the clarifications on governance requested by the ECB.
MPS-Mediobanca: Questions on the table
After the meeting which denied the Mediobanca board of directors the authorization to proceed with the Banca Generali operation, the MPS offer still remains at 2,3% OffTo fill this gap, the CEO of the Siena bank, Luigi Lovaglio, would simply have to put on the table just over 400 million. The market believes in it, also because the amount is affordable and could be useful to convince some members to take up the offer, gathering significant stakes that could contribute to reaching 50% and thus the creation of a new governance structure. If MPS were to remain just above 35% of Mediobanca, in fact, a situation would arise in which different majorities could emerge from time to time at the shareholders' meeting, which, among other things—and here comes another point—would complicate matters with the European Central Bank.
The Eurotower has asked Monte dei Paschi to provide, within six months of the closing of the takeover bid, details on future governance and how it intends to manage it, as well as how the authorization thresholds will be respected. In short: on weight that Caltagirone and Delfin will have in the new group, which will depend on the final percentages of the offer.
Meanwhile, the operation remains looming over the investigation opened by the Milan Prosecutor's Office The sale of a 15% stake in Monte dei Paschi di Siena in November 2024. The seller at the time was the Treasury. Caltagirone, Delfin, Banco BPM, and Anima purchased the same stake at the same time, at the same 5% premium. The investigation, launched following a defamation complaint filed by Mediobanca, aims to verify whether there were any irregularities in the placement process, which was conducted through the Accelerated Book Building (ABB) mechanism. Last July, the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office announced its intention to conclude the investigation as quickly as possible, in order to provide maximum clarity for investors and prevent the investigation from influencing the game of chance, but since then, all has been quiet. We'll see if there are any developments by September 8th.
