It would take a crystal ball to know how the investigation will end. Milan Public Prosecutor's Office on the climb of Ps a Mediobanca and on the alleged "concert", not easy to ascertain, between Monte and the members Caltagirone and Milleri (Delfin). But at least two things are certain. The first is that the September 15th document will certainly not be enough. Consob, unveiled on Friday by Sun 24 Hours, according to which up until then there was no "concert", to consider the matter closed. This clearly cannot be the case, both because the Milanese judiciary continued its investigation well beyond September 15th and it is not known exactly what it uncovered, and because we do not know whether the Consob document excludes or excludes the allegations of "obstruction of supervisory authority" by MPS and its shareholders, which the Prosecutor's Office is investigating.
MPS's takeover of Mediobanca is irreversible, but the effects on Generali are fading.
The second certainty is that, whatever the final outcome of the judicial investigation, The MPS-Mediobanca takeover is irreversibleThere's no turning back. However, the investigation, depending on how it ends, could have several effects. First, if the Prosecutor's Office were to actually establish the stock market manipulation and obstruction of supervision by MPS and its shareholders, the reputational cost, as well as the financial cost, for the defendants would be very heavy. The hypotheses put forward by the jurists involve the operations of MPS and its shareholders on both Mediobanca and Mediobanca. General: in the case of Mediobanca, always in the event of the discovery of crimes in the takeover, it could be possible to arrive at a compensation for the shareholders of Piazzetta Cuccia between the takeover bid offer and the actual value of the Mediobanca shares and to the obligation to Opa residual 14% of the Milanese institute that was not transferred to the takeover bid.
MPS and Generali: From the Risks of a "Concert" to Those of a Very Costly Takeover Bid
But the most serious consequences for MPS and its shareholders would be if a "concert" between the shareholders were to be ascertained and it came to theobligation to make a cascade takeover bid which would impose the obligation on the Sienese bank, on Caltagirone and on Delfin to launch the takeover bid for the entire capital of Generali which has a stock market value of approximately 50 billion euros. Since Mediobanca (now MPS), Caltagirone and Delfin hold approximately 30% of Generali, if a mandatory takeover bid were to be triggered, the additional outlay would be astronomical and would amount to over 30 billion.
There is no certainty about the future, pending a judicial investigation with unprejudicial results, but the risk of being accused of "concert" has aimmediate consequence on Generali, which has always been the true objective of the Mediobanca takeover, and on the new strong shareholders of the Trieste-based Lion: it won't permanently banish the shadows from Generali's sky, but it will cool and slow them down. In other words: at least until the Lion's annual general meeting in the spring of 2026, but perhaps even later, depending on the progress of the investigation and the possibility of a republican solution for Generali, with the entry of the major banks to protect Italianness. No shake-ups are expected at the top of the leading insurance groupAnd it's no coincidence that since the Milan investigation began, Generali's stock has gained ground on the stock exchange.
