An aging country, an job market that is emptying. In the next ten years or so 6,1 million Italians will leave the world of work: an unprecedented generational exodus, destined to profoundly change the economic and social balance. It is the heart of thealarm raised from the president of theInapp, Forlani Christmas, before the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry on Demographic Transition. Projections indicate that by 2060 the population working age (20-64 years) will shrink by 34%, leaving a void that risks undermining growth, the sustainability of pensions and the entire Italian welfare system. great danger for the economy and sustainability of the country.
The growing weight of social spending
The report portrays an Italy already under stress.demographic dependency ratio grows, companies are struggling to find skills and the public budget is getting heavier. pension spending will rise up to 17% of GDP by 2040, while over 4 million non-self-sufficient people over 65 will require ongoing assistance.
Of public spending on social services totaling €587,5 billion (59,3% of current spending), only €57,1 billion is allocated to social assistance, and less than half goes to direct services. This is too little, according to INAPP, to address a demographic winter that is no longer a hypothesis but a reality.
Women and NEETs: the hidden reserve
La regeneration of the active population passes above all from who today remains on the margins of work. And it is a real hidden “treasure”: 7,8 million women Women between the ages of 15 and 64 are inactive, but over 1,2 million say they are ready to work. In Southern Italy, the share exceeds 23%, with Campania and Sicily leading the way.
Then there is the Neet knot that is, approximately 1,4 million young people who are neither studying, working nor looking for employment. A group that, sand recovered with targeted training and inclusion policies, it could mitigate the shock of the generational exodus.
Work longer, but better
Italy does not yet have a coherent age management system, that is, career management in the mature stages. Yet today more than half of those employed (54,9%) are over 45 years old. Hence INAPP's proposal: "third and fourth generation" policies to voluntarily extend working lives, investing in continuous training, flexibility, security, and the valorization of experience. The goal is not only to raise the retirement age, but ensure active aging that makes mature workers a resource and not a cost.
A dual strategy for the future
The president of Inapp speaks of a immediate change of pace, which must travel on two parallel tracks: regenerate the workforce and make social spending sustainable. On the one hand, increased female employment, inclusion of inactive youth, and balanced pension policies. On the other, reform of long-term care, strengthening community services, and a more strategic use of technology to increase productivity and care.
" sustainability of the system – concluded Forlani – depends on the ability to increase employment, active taxpayers and income from work. But also on recognize that the theme of care, understood in the broadest sense, is a crucial issue: it can generate new opportunities for economic development and employment. This is where the future of our country is at stake."
