In the next few hours we will understand if there is still a glimmer of hope left for the France a government or if we're headed for political and institutional chaos, which will certainly make its full impact felt on financial markets and government bonds. The president-elect Sebastien Lecornu must report to the President of the Republic today, Emmanuel Macron, if he is capable and if he has the numbers in Parliament to give life to a centre-right government that could take advantage of the right's lack of confidence Marine Le PenBut Lecornu's path is uphill and the Elysée continues to elude the real political problem facing France and which Macron stubbornly refuses to address: only by opening up to socialists, detached from the maximalism of Lfi of Jean Luc Melenchon, a stable government could be created that resembles a sort of French-style center-left and that would be composed of centrists, Macronians and socialists. But Macron does not feel like crossing the Rubicon and opening up to the socialists because he does not want to give up his pension reform and he doesn't want it Zucman tax on the richest. Thus, the governability of France remains a chimera and even its closest supporters, starting with the former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (“Macron, I don’t understand you anymore”), they distanced themselves.
If Lecornu fails and if there is no opening to the socialists, France will return to chaos and the most likely hypothesis is that of a new dissolution of Parliament and a return to the polls for elections In truth, the opposition would like much more, namely the resignation of President Macron. Now, certainly, Macron, an undisputed protagonist on the international stage, has made many mistakes in domestic politics, but one thing is certain: if Macron falls, the risk France runs is that of a triumph for the far-right Marine Le Pen or, in the event of her ineligibility, of her protégé. Jordan BardellaBut the greatest risk is run by theEurope: without the full support of France the EU no longer exists because the Germany of the hesitant Merz It cannot take sole leadership of Europe, especially if the right triumphs in Paris as well. All that remains is to hope for miracles. But for now, only Russian Tsar Vladimir Putin is celebrating the French crisis. Putin.
