Commerzbank raises barricades for resist the advance of Unicredit and convince its shareholders not to accept the offer launched on May 5th by the bank led by Andrea Orcel, already the largest shareholder with more than 35% of the capital Between direct participation (about 26%) and financial instruments to be converted into shares (an additional 9%). This morning, the German bank presented record-breaking quarterly results, announced 3 redundancies, and—as a result of both—revised upwards its 2026 targets and strategic objectives for 2028 and 2030. Whether this will be enough will only be revealed on June 16, when the takeover bid concludes.
Commerzbank: Profits and revenues rise
In the first three months of 2026, operating profit Germany's second-largest bank grew by 11 percent to a record 1,4 billion euros, while the net profit rose 9% to 913 million. Revenues stood at 3,2 billion, up 5%. Net commissions also increased, reaching a historic high of 1,1 billion (+9%). net interest margin It remained stable at €2 billion despite lower benchmark interest rates. Net return on tangible equity (Net RoTE) improved by 1,6 percentage points to 12,7%.
Celebrate the CEO Bettina Orlopp, who comments in a note: “We have started the year with record resultsThis shows that our strategy is working and has greater potential than initially anticipated. We are growing faster than expected, and our new targets for 2030 reflect this: ambitious but reliable in their implementation. Each alternative must be evaluated in light of these results.".
The new targets: 3,4 billion in profits by 2026
The Frankfurt institute has raised its targets. Specifically, for 2026, the forecast onnet profit rises from 3,2 to 3,4 billionNet income is expected to increase to €4,6 billion by 2028 and €5,9 billion by 2030. Revenue is then estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2028 and €16,8 billion by 2030. Commerzbank had initially forecast revenues of €14,2 billion for 2028. A payout ratio of 100% is planned until the target CET1 ratio of 13,5% is achieved.
Commerzbank cuts 3 jobs and invests €600 million in AI
“The ongoing transformation of the bank is accompanied by a further Group-wide reduction of approximately 3.000 positions "gross," Commerzbank announced in a statement. The redundancies will result in extraordinary costs of approximately 450 million euros, but should help support new financial targets for 2030. Commerz had already cut 10 jobs in May 2021, while it had announced another 3.900 departures for 2025. This brings the total to almost 17 thousand cuts in five years.
"This reduction," the bank continued, "is partially offset by targeted hiring in selected growth and development areas. To ensure this transformation occurs in a socially responsible manner, Commerzbank is leveraging, among other measures, established early retirement programs, natural staff turnover, and demographic effects. The bank has already concluded a transformation agreement with employee representatives, which defines the key principles."
Along with the job cuts, Commerzbank announced investments in artificial intelligence. In the period from 2026 to 2030, the institute plans to invest a total of approximately 600 million of euros in this sector.
Orlopp: “No one dialogue without reward”
"Unicredit does not offer any rewards; its communicated integration plan remains vague and carries significant risks of execution”. This is what we read in the note on the accounts published today by Commerzbank which adds: “Commerzbank remains open to dialogue if Unicredit is willing to offer an interesting prize and to openly commit to a plan that takes into account the fundamental pillars of Commerzbank's business model and strategy."
During the conference call to present the accounts, the CEO of the Frankfurt institution, Bettina Orlopp, doubles down: “We always remain open to discussions with Unicredit, but we have two key requests. First of all, that takes into account the strength of our business model and our network. Secondly, it makes no sense for our shareholders to give up their Commerzbank shares and the growth potential they bring without a premium." "Apart from that, we are always available to sit down again" at the table, he added.
Piazza Gae Aulenti has put on the table 0,485 Unicredit shares for each Commerzbank share, or approximately 32,9 euros per Commerz share, which is currently trading at just under 36,6 euros per share. The offer is therefore at a discount, despite Orcel having repeatedly reiterated that he considers it a premium given the growth in the German bank's capitalization achieved after Unicredit's entry. Since September 2024, when the takeover began, Commerz shares have tripled their value.
Orlopp: "Unicredit underestimates us."
Speaking to analysts, Orlopp stressed that Unicredit's offer for Commerzbank “undervalues” the bank German and is based on “unrealistic” synergy assumptions.
The Frankfurt institution has developed a series of slides dedicated to presenting its "perspective on Unicredit's offer", which include a sort of “fact-checking”, from his point of view, of the statements of the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti, which used “misleading narratives which discredit Commerzbank and lower our rating.” “Commerzbank presents itself as an example of successful transformation, serving German SMEs and with a “lean and revenue-focused international network, with a disciplined risk appetite.”
As for some of the targets presented by UnicreditAccording to Commerzbank, the reduction of RWAs would imply a loss of revenues of over one billion and in general the measures presented by the Italian bank would require investments of over 4,2 billion. Furthermore, Unicredit's plan would entail the cutting of 7 jobs To achieve savings of €800 million, or "about a quarter of the workforce," and another 3-4 cuts to achieve additional cost synergies of another €800 million. These measures are difficult to implement within the estimated timeframe and therefore, according to Commerzbank, pose a high risk of execution.
The government has launched a fresh attack on UniCredit: "This is no way to treat a German bank."
On Thursday, the German Chancellor also Friedrich Merz has returned to attack the offer of Unicredit on Commerzbank, claiming that “This is not the way to treat institutions such as a German bank." The operation in Piazza Gae Aulenti, he added, "destroys trust” into Germany's second-largest private bank. During a conference, Merz acknowledged that "yes, we need large banks in Europe for complex financing," but added that "this does not mean that any form of acquisition is accepted without restrictions." The German government, which holds over 12% of Commerz, therefore remains opposed to the operation.
