New Year, bank risk New. Anyone who thinks that Italian banking consolidation will be over in 2025 risks having to think again soon. The conditions for a resumption of operations are all there, especially since the second largest Italian player,Unicredit by Andrea Orcel, has not yet achieved the objective of strengthening itself in Italy due to the obstructionism that the Government has put in place against his plan to take over the Bank Bpm. The new Golden Power rules would authorize UniCredit to try again, but that's not necessarily Orcel's preferred option. Something is stirring underground, and it's unthinkable that a creative and ambitious banker like the CEO of Italy's second-largest bank doesn't already have plans for the new year. In recent weeks, speculation has been swirling about the possibility of UniCredit attempting an appeasement with the Generals by Philippe Donnet after the Lion's renunciation of the joint venture in wealth management with the French Natixis. Someone has even hypothesized a takeover bid by Unicredit on the profitable General Bank but without receiving any confirmation.
For some time now, however, the financial community has been scrutinizing the restlessness of the heirs of Leonardo DelVecchio in Dolphin and the growing intolerance towards the CEO's banking protagonism Francesco Milleri which risks penalizing Essilor LuxotticaIt is for this reason, but not only for this reason, that rumours are multiplying about the possibility that Delfin will be convinced to sell its 17,5% stake in Monte dei Paschi and that Unicredit could become the preferred buyer, also with an eye to the effects on Mediobanca and on Generali. Naturally, even in this case, it is useless to look for official confirmations. However, one cannot ignore the fact that, in addition to reassuring and distributing a rich capital gain to Del Vecchio's eager heirs, the sale of Delfin's share in MPS would also have the purpose of countering the hypotheses of concert Caltagirone-Milleri advanced by Milan Public Prosecutor's Office in his well-known investigation into the promoters of Monte dei Paschi's takeover of Mediobanca. Delfin's exit from MPS would open up intriguing scenarios and it would be necessary to understand whether Orcel, once he becomes Monte dei Paschi's largest shareholder, would seek to reach an understanding with Caltagirone and with the Government, which – let's not forget – remains a shareholder of the Sienese bank or intends to resolve the future of MPS on the market without excluding the possibility of aOpa which would have effects not only on Mediobanca (which is already owned by Monte) but also on the structures of Generali.
It's too early to predict how things will end, but the Unicredit-MPS deal is sure to inspire the 2026 game of risk and, government permitting, perhaps trigger shocks to the Italian banking system no less disruptive than those we've seen in the past year.
