The victory over Nazi-fascism is being celebrated in Moscow and two events are expected today which make the appointment different from the usual. The first is Putin's speech, who will talk about the war in Ukraine: the well-known "special military operation to denazify" the country. The second – less fraught with consequences, but significant of the spirit that hovers over the capital – is the flight of Mig planes to form the letter Z in the Moscow sky.
What will Putin say?
What will Putin say? There are more suggestions on the table: there are those who claim that the Russian President will announce the annexation of the two separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk and of the Kherson region in order to proclaim victory. Analyst Alperovitch, for example, believes that Putin will announce the successful demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, stating that he has destroyed military infrastructure and the Azov battalion and protected the Russians in Donbass and Crimea.
Others think the Kremlin's number one will officially declare war on Ukraine, as Moscow has so far banned the word and continues to claim it is only carrying out a "denazification" operation. If this were the case, the consequence could only be a general mobilization, that is, the recall of all those capable of fighting, from the most mature reservists to high school students. Perhaps with the announcement of another major exercise in Belarus, which served, let us remember, as a base for entering Ukraine from the north.
Finally, there are those who argue that the Russian president will say absolutely nothing sensational. Like Sergei Markov, 64, political scientist, director of the Moscow Political Research Institute, deputy of Putin's party for seven years (2011/18) and his trusted man. “Nothing will happen on May 9 – he told journalists – We who come from the former USSR have always hated the custom of making announcements during patriotic holidays. And Putin is no exception."
Consequence of the reasoning: make no mistake, the wait for decisive events for changing the situation on the ground will still be long. Obviously the Kremlin has denied all hypotheses, even this last one.
The flight of planes to form a Z
As for the letter Z, it will be recalled, it has been used since the beginning of the war to mark Russian tanks. What it means and why it appeared remains a mystery. Does it mean “Zapad”, “West”? Or “Za Pobedy”, “for Victory”? Or simply "Zelensky", as the name of the Ukrainian president, the first target in the sights of snipers? Not to mention that the letter is not a prerogative of this war, but appeared for the first time on heavy vehicles during the other invasion, that of the Crimea in 2014: it would have been just a ploy to tell those shooting from the sky to be careful don't hit your teammates. Whatever the truth may be, the Z is the symbol of this war that the Russians liked the most, so much so that there is no television broadcast that cannot find a way to display it.
The real military parade is in Kiev
Going back to Putin's speech, the only certain thing is that the Russian president will take the opportunity of the celebration to leverage patriotic sentiment and the myth of the siege, as happened in the Second World War, to strengthen the spirit of the Russians and ask their greatest sacrifices as the "special operation" in Ukraine proceeds and Western sanctions weaken the economy.
But what will be clear to everyone, even to those who, convinced or not, are on his side, will be the fact that the real military parade, in memory of the day of the Great Victory, does not take place in Moscow, but in Ukraine. It is here that the muscles and weapons of the former communist empire are more than exhibited: from the north-east to the south-west of the invaded country, the Russians have deployed 93 battalions, equal to 93 men on a front that reaches up to 900 km. And this is where Moscow decided to show its strength to the world by crossing the border of the neighboring country on February 24, 2022.
Five battalions are stationed in the direction of Kharkiv on a front of about 100km; 22 are employed towards Izyum, for almost 60 km; 19 were sent in the direction of Sverdonetsk, on a front of more than 100 km. There are 7 battalions moved in the direction of Papasna, distributed over about 20 km; while 20 are directed towards Donetsk, for another 140 km; 13 are then found on the Zaporija line, for over 130 km of territory; and finally, 7 others are positioned towards Kherson, for almost 160 km in front.
The exhibition in Moscow
Therefore, nothing to do with the surrogate military reality that will be exhibited in Red Square from 10am today (9am Italian time). In the Russian capital, 33 columns made up of 11 people will parade. The armored vehicles will include 131 vehicles: the first to enter Red Square will be the legendary T-34 tank, the backbone of the Soviet armored forces during the Second World War, followed, among others, by the T-14 Armata tanks and S-400 air defense systems.
The modern 122 mm Tornado-G multiple rocket launch systems will also be seen for the first time. While the most modern tanks, such as the T-80BVM, and the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system, will not parade, evidently because they are located elsewhere. It's not hard to imagine where.
The airshow will be flown by 77 aircraft including Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers, Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets, and attack and transport helicopters. After several years, the Il-80, also known as the "doomsday plane", returns to fly over Red Square, not because it is more lethal than the others, but because it was designed to host the high offices of the Russian Federation in the event of a nuclear war. Western countries also have a similar one and for the same purpose: to save the commanders in chief.
A date celebrated only in Russia
The celebration has been held only in Russia for years, because the other winners of the world war have chosen to commemorate the birth of the Czech Republic and therefore of Europe on the day Germany signed its surrender, 8 May 1945. Why the discrepancy of date and meanings? When the Germans signed it was late in the evening and Moscow had already entered the 9th day. Since then the 9th has been celebrated in Russia, while the 8th has remained in the rest of Europe. As for the meaning inherent in the difference in the celebration, it is clear that for one part (the Russians) that date has always wanted to exalt and remember the heroism of a people; for the other (Europe) it means remembering that all nationalism has been buried in favor of a new collective homeland.
And Kiev? Ukrainians until 2014 had the same date as Russians with the same symbolic meaning; then, it is understandable why, they chose to celebrate May 8, as in the rest of Europe, also defining the day as a "Feast of Remembrance and Reconciliation".
War numbers
Whatever this celebration is called, one thing is certain: while the facade parade goes by in Moscow, in Ukraine they are dealing with what causes the real one. According to the latest figures from the UNHCR, there are over 5 million refugees, more than 2 thousand buildings have been reduced to rubble. As for the dead, there are those who already count 50 thousand. These are figures that will continue to change until they enter the history books. But it won't happen so soon.
