In the current recession, exports are limiting the contraction in manufacturing turnover. Despite the slowdown in world trade, the rediscovered international competitiveness of Italian industry is allowing foreign sales to maintain a positive trend. Good results are seen in a large number of countries, both those with still growing demand and those experiencing a slowdown.
The most important data on the competitive level comes from United States, towards which Italian companies directed in the first five months of 2012 products for a total value of more than 10 billion euros. Consumer goods are favoured, especially those of the fashion system, also thanks to the depreciation of the euro which expands the audience of potential buyers of traditional Italian goods Made in Italy. The US market is also characterized by a recovery in demand for capital and intermediate goods, perhaps a sign of a re-industrialization process that could contribute to redesigning international trade routes in the near future. Also in these sectors, e in particular in the mechanical sector, Italian companies have well seized the opportunities offered by the market.
Less positive general market trends but with encouraging signals for the competitiveness of Italian industry characterize exports to China and Germany. In the first few months of 2012, the Asian giant, also due to the slowdown in world demand, undertook a strong downward correction of manufactured imports, particularly in goods more linked to industrial activity and infrastructure, such as mechanics and electrical engineering, thus influencing the overall Italian export specialized in these sectors. On the other hand, extremely positive data are reported for furnishings, car components, pharmaceutica and, especially,fashion system. Therefore, it seems that Italian entrepreneurs are making the most of the transition of the Chinese economy towards a development model more focused on consumption, realizing significant share gains on Chinese imports of this type of goods.
On the other hand, a decrease characterizes German imports. Also in this case, despite a worsening picture compared to 2011, our producers are reacting with an intensification of efforts for a greater control of what remains Italy's main commercial outlet, conquering new market spaces in sectors such as mechanical engineering, products and materials for construction, electronics, pharmaceuticals and food and beverages.
The good news for Italian exports is not limited to the major world markets but also concerns countries such as Canada and Mexico (confirming the NAFTA area as one of the most receptive for Italian goods), Japan (in full post-tsunami recovery phase) , UK, Switzerland, Russia and the Middle East. The growth in these markets, in particular for mechanics, pharmaceuticals, automotive components and the fashion system, compensates for the losses suffered in other important emerging countries, characterized by weak demand in the first months of 2012, such as Brazil, Turkey and India.
Difficulties in the EMU countries and above all in the domestic market
Negative data, on the other hand, come from exports to most of the euro area countries, signaling the widening of the difficulties from peripheral economies to the entire Monetary Union, including Germany, with worsening prospects for the rest of the year.
But the situation is especially critical on the domestic front, with declines in turnover spread across most sectors. Only the food and beverage sector shows a still positive contribution from the domestic component (Figure 3), while the metal and capital goods supply chains appear to be in greater difficulty, penalized by the weakness of the downstream sectors unable to seize the opportunities on the markets abroad (construction) or in structural crisis (auto).
The earthquake hit an area with a high industrial vocation
The problems of demand were joined by those of the earthquakes which, at the end of May, struck, for the first time in Italy, an area with a very high manufacturing density, thus adding to the tragic account of human and architectural losses also the damage to the industrial heritage . Quickly re-establishing acceptable operating conditions to protect worker safety and production continuity is therefore a priority, to prevent companies in the area from ending up "out of the market", in a context of supply chain relations, including at an international level, which have never been so turbulent and changeable as in recent months.
A brightening on the side of access to credit
In addition to the slowdown in domestic and European demand, between the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 Italian companies had also had to experiment with more restrictive conditions for accessing credit. The growth in bank rates, the overall low liquidity of the financial system and company accounts on average not yet returned to acceptable levels after 2009 have contributed, together with the weakness in demand, to penalize manufacturing companies.
The most recent qualitative information (Figure 4) However, they seem to indicate that, despite international financial tensions, credit access conditions are slowly improving, facilitating the management of companies' needs for ordinary activities and for investments, especially of a commercial nature, necessary to oversee international markets with ever greater effectiveness and continuity.
Control of foreign markets and access to credit are the strategic cornerstones for Italian industry
Presence on international markets, to seize all the opportunities offered by global demand, and financial balance, in order not to be too dependent on the trend of the credit market, appear to be the two great levers which contribute to polarizing the performance of growth and profitability of Italian companies. The future development possibilities of Italian manufacturing will play out precisely around these two axes, strengthened in terms of global competitiveness but, almost four years after the start of the great recession, weakened in terms of economic and financial conditions.
Attachments: Summary_Press_ASI_July_2012.pdf
